Commodities
Weekly US Natural Gas Posts Gains on Warm Weather Forecasts Despite Soft Demand
US natural gas markets edged higher over the week as weather forecasts pointed to above-normal temperatures expected to lift cooling demand, even as overall consumption remained muted across much of the US.The front-month June contract price rose to $2.96 per million British thermal units from $2.75/MMBtu on May 8.The front-month June contract price rose over the week to $2.86/MMBtu from $2.73/MMBtu on May 8, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released on Wednesday.Natural gas spot prices rose by $0.13/MMBtu to $2.88/MMBtu during the week ended May 13, according to the EIA, from $2.75/MMBtu the prior week.This comes despite near-normal temperatures prevailing across most of the US, with limited heating or cooling needs, leading to lower gas consumption. Total gas demand dropped 0.5 billion cubic feet per day, or by 1% from the prior week, according to LSEG data.This was led by a 1.8 Bcf/d, or 13% decline in residential and commercial consumption, which was largely offset by a 1.8 Bcf increase in demand from the electric power sector.Additionally, LNG feedgas continued to average around 17 Bcf/d, compared to the 30-day moving average of 18.75 Bcf. This is largely due to several major LNG facilities undergoing planned maintenance.Prices surged across most regional hubs during the week, but not all, with Waha reporting a $0.36/MMBtu increase. In the power sector, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, also known as ERCOT, supplied 20% more natural gas-fired generation, owing to a steep decline in wind and nuclear generation, which fell by 19% and 12%, respectively.The net injection into storage for the week ended May 8 was 85 Bcf, up from 63 Bcf the prior week, bringing total gas inventories to 2,290 Bcf, according to EIA data. The injection was slightly below analyst forecasts of 86 Bcf, supporting prices, according to data compiled by Investing.com.During the same week last year, the EIA reported a net injection of 109 Bcf, with the five-year average for this period at 84 Bcf.Total gas inventories at 2,290 Bcf are now 51 Bcf, or 2% above the corresponding period a year ago, and 140 Bcf, or 7%, higher than the five-year average for this period.Nearly all regions reported a net injection of working gas for the week ended May 8, with the East and South Central regions injecting 27 Bcf, while the Pacific and Mountain regions remain above their respective year-ago and five-year average levels.Analysts at NRG Energy noted that storage replenishment has been much slower so far this year, with surpluses relative to prior-year figures starting to fall.Meanwhile, the US gas rig count dropped by one from 129 the previous week to 128, in the week ending May 15, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 108 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by three to 675 from 672 the previous week.Weather forecasts are now pointing to above-normal temperatures across most of the country over the last week of this month, according to the National Weather Service. This is expected to add to cooling gas demand over the next two weeks.A total of 37 liquefied natural gas-carrying vessels left US ports during the week, up by seven, compared to 30 vessels last week, with a total capacity of 141 Bcf, up by 26 Bcf compared to the prior week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $15.68/MMBtu for the week ended May 13, $0.17/MMBtu higher than the previous week.The Japan-Korea Marker averaged $16.93/MMBtu, about $0.03/MMBtu higher than the prior week.In project development news, Caturus announced a final investment decision on its $13 billion Commonwealth LNG project in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. The company also secured $9.75 billion in financing for the 9.5 million metric tons per annum export terminal, which is scheduled to enter service in 2030.Speaking during a CNBC interview reposted by the Department of Energy, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the market had lost about 10 Bcf/d of gas exports amid disruptions affecting LNG trade flows.Wright said the US currently exports about 20 Bcf/d of natural gas, roughly double the volumes exported by the next-largest global suppliers. He added that the US is still adding about 2.5 Bcf/d of new export capacity this year.
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