International
Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Moves, Inflation Data, Trade Numbers and GDP Reports
For this week in Asia, the economic calendar features a busy slate of macro releases across the region.The week begins with a slew of closely watched indicators from China, including industrial production and unemployment data.On Tuesday, markets turn to Japan's first-quarter GDP estimates and Malaysia's April inflation print.Wednesday features policy decisions in Indonesia and China, along with trade data from Taiwan.Thursday brings Japan's latest trade figures and Australia's closely watched labor market report. On Friday, Japan returns to the spotlight with its April inflation print.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, May 18The week kicked off with a flurry of macro releases from China.Industrial production: A 4.1% year-over-year expansion was recorded in April, sharply slowing from the 5.7% growth in March and way below expectations of a 5.9% rise.Retail sales: Growth decelerated to 0.2% year on year in April, versus 1.7% a month prior.Unemployment: The rate eased to 5.2% in April from 5.4% a month earlier.Meanwhile, prices of new residential properties in China's first-tier cities grew 0.1% month on month in April, decelerating from the 0.2% expansion in March.Chinese investments in real estate development fell 13.7% year on year to 2.397 trillion yuan between January and April.Outside China, Thailand reported that its gross domestic product grew at a faster rate of 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from 2.5% in the last three months of 2025.In Singapore, April trade showed a 24.5% year on year rise in non-oil domestic exports, extending the 15.3% increase in the previous month.Elsewhere, New Zealand's services sector showed a modest improvement in April but remained in contraction, with persistent cost pressures and global shipping disruptions continuing to weigh on sentiment, according to BusinessNZ.The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose to 48.9 in April from 46.2 in March. A reading below the 50-point mark points to contraction.TUESDAY, May 19Markets will turn their attention to Japan's preliminary first-quarter GDP.Economists at ING said they expect the economy to grow at a similar rate as the previous quarter's 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. "The war's impact on GDP should be minimal in 1Q26," the bank said in a preview.Meanwhile, Malaysia will disclose its April inflation print, with Trading Economics expecting prices to rise at a faster pace than the 1.7% year over year growth seen in March. According to the data platform, Malaysia's CPI could rise at a rate of 2.7%.In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes will add color to the central bank's recent decision to increase the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%.CommBank said the minutes may provide more details on the board's discussion and how members were assessing the impact of the conflict around Iran.A consumer confidence report, due for release the same day, will capture sentiment over the most recent RBA rate hike and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Lastly, Hong Kong will report April unemployment stats on the same day.WEDNESDAY, May 20Bank Indonesia will meet for its monetary policy meeting and could raise rates by 25 basis points to 5% amid a depreciation of the local currency and a shift in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which bodes unfavorably for the Indonesian rupiah, ING forecasted.China will similarly set its one-year and five-year loan prime rates, with markets expecting no change in the prevailing rates of 3% and 3.5%, respectively.Trade data from Taiwan and Malaysia will be due.Taiwan is once again expected to show a "strong reading" when it releases April export orders data, with growth topping 54% year on year, ING said in a preview.The island nation started the year "quite strongly" amid external demand for its main high-tech products, which is expected to continue, according to the note.Meanwhile, Malaysia's trade surplus is expected to narrow to 10.5 billion ringgit from 24.6 billion ringgit in the month prior, Trading Economics forecasted.The Reuters Tankan Index for May, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, will be due the same day.THURSDAY, May 21Japan will release several economic indicators on Thursday, including April trade data and March machinery orders.The country is expected to report a trade deficit of 29.7 billion yen for the month, reversing from a surplus of 667 billion yen in March, according to a Trading Economics consensus.New Zealand will similarly report its April trade balance, with analysts forecasting a trade surplus of around NZ$840 million, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Neighboring Australia will report labor data for April. Westpac expects unemployment to remain at 4.3%.Elsewhere, Hong Kong will report April inflation data while Macau will disclose first-quarter retail sales stats. In South Korea, the April producer price inflation data will be due.On the activity front, S&P Global will release flash purchasing managers' index reports covering May manufacturing, services, and composite activity in India, Australia and Japan.FRIDAY, May 22Japan's April inflation print will capture headlines on Friday, giving markets a look into how the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is impacting the economy.Economists at ING said energy effects may have a limited impact on growth but a greater impact on inflation, which is expected to clock in at 1.8% year on year in April -- up from 1.5% in March."Higher energy costs are expected to increase overall inflation. The impact, though, will likely be still less significant than that observed in other Asian and developed countries," ING said in a note.Inflation data will also be due in Macau.Meanwhile, Taiwan could see a marginal drop in its unemployment when it releases April labor stats. According to Trading Economics, Taiwan's jobless rate could go down to 3.3% from 3.35%.New Zealand is expected to see a "muted" rise in real retail sales when reporting its Q1 data, Westpac said in a preview. The bank expects a rise of 0.2% for the first three months of the year, versus the 0.9% growth recorded in the previous quarter. "The latter part of March saw fuel prices rising sharply, and that has been a drag on spending," Westpac said.Lastly, South Korea will release a report capturing consumer confidence for May. ING said it expects consumer sentiment to deteriorate further amid inflation hikes and energy headwinds.
ASX 200^BSEHang Seng^JKSEFTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCIKOSPINikkei 225^NSE^NZ50^SETShanghai Composite^STI^SZSETaiwan Weighted
