Oil & Energy
Crude Market Faces Inventory Crunch as Supply Shock Deepens, RBC Says
Global crude oil markets could face mounting supply pressures in the coming weeks if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists, despite emergency stock releases and efforts to diversify energy supplies, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Thursday.RBC analysts said that though speakers at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum projected a more resilient market than during the 2022 energy crisis, industry experts warned that current oil prices do not fully reflect the scale of supply losses."The view of industry experts was that there is no substitute for a free and open Strait of Hormuz," the analysts said, adding that millions of barrels per day remain unavailable to the market and cumulative supply losses have exceeded one billion barrels.Though strategic petroleum reserve releases, demand curtailment and alternative supply routes have helped cushion the impact, millions of barrels per day remain unavailable to the market, with cumulative losses now exceeding one billion barrels.RBC said that a recurring theme throughout the conference was the growing strain on inventories.Speakers at the conference noted that commercial crude stockpiles continue to decline while emergency reserves face operational constraints. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US is approaching levels that many industry participants consider the practical minimum for operational flexibility.Commercial inventories are also falling rapidly, particularly at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for US crude futures.RBC analysts said concerns are mounting that lower inventories could eventually limit the US's ability to sustain record crude exports, which recently reached about 5.6 million barrels per day.However, despite the supply disruption, industry executives dismissed the idea of lasting demand destruction.Reduced consumption in some regions, including weaker Chinese imports, was characterized as a temporary response to high prices and uncertainty rather than a structural decline in demand.Several governments, instead, are expected to emerge from the crisis with larger energy security ambitions. India was cited as considering an increase in strategic oil storage targets from 40 days to 90 days of supply, while China is expected to further expand its stockpiling efforts.RBC said that similar initiatives are being discussed for refined products, suggesting that post-conflict demand could be strengthened by large-scale restocking programs.The bank said that RBC said expectations for a post-crisis recovery echo the rebound seen after the COVID-19 pandemic, with energy consumption potentially receiving an additional boost from efforts to rebuild inventories and improve resilience.Delegates at the event forecasted to future production opportunities across North America, South America and the Middle East, including offshore developments in Kuwait, expanded output from Canada and Brazil, and the potential return of Venezuelan production.Meanwhile, natural gas and liquefied natural gas were equally prominent themes at the forum. RBC analyst said that the Trump administration's push to accelerate LNG export approvals has reinforced global interest in US gas supplies.Participants said that the US could ultimately develop enough supply to support an additional 60 billion cubic feet per day of production at gas prices near $4 per million British thermal units.However, the speakers said that pipeline permitting remains a critical obstacle.Globally, LNG demand growth is projected to continue to exceed 5% per year, potentially leaving markets undersupplied in the 2030s. Though Europe's long-term decarbonization policies have limited interest in contracts extending beyond 2040, RBC said that ongoing geopolitical conflicts have softened some of that resistance.The search for supply diversification is also generating renewed interest in LNG developments across the Western Hemisphere.Projects in Argentina, Venezuela, and other South American countries were cited at the forum as potential alternatives to Middle Eastern supply, while floating LNG technology is seen as a way to accelerate the development of new export capacity.
