Treasury
BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada
Canada will release retail sales for April at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, said Bank of Montreal Economics (BMO).Canadian retail sales are expected to rise 0.6% month-over-month in April, noted the bank.Households had remained resilient despite elevated economic uncertainty, yet the latest surge in energy prices further strained family budgets, stated senior economists Shelly Kaushik and Carl Campus in a note.BMO's call, which is in line with Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate, reflects higher gasoline spending. Friday's report is likely to point to softer underlying activity, with sales volumes expected to contract for a second straight month as fuel costs continue to rise, the economists added.Provided the peace agreement between the United States and Iran remains intact and fuel prices stay subdued, lower gasoline costs and government assistance should help underpin consumer spending in the near term, according to BMO.Also at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, StatsCan will publish the monthly credit numbers for April.Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged that Canada and the U.S. had "very detailed", "technical" conversations on several issues, including the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review, during this week's G7 in France, and some of those conversations included President Donald Trump, pointed out BMO. This brings the bank to say that behind-the-scenes activity continues to unfold even as President Trump this week floated the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal from USMCA.The US dollar index and the Canadian dollar at $1.415 are both a touch weaker early Friday, according to the bank.
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