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Update: UAE to Leave OPEC From May 1

(Updates with official statements and analyst comments throughout the story.)The UAE will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies effective May 1, the country's Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei confirmed on social media Tuesday."The UAE's decision to exit from OPEC reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals," Al Mazrouei posted on X.The energy minister told Reuters earlier that the government did not consult any other country before deciding to leave the cartel. He said this decision will give the UAE the flexibility to make changes to production, storage, and shipping energy products.Sultan Al Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said the UAE's decision was in line with its long-term energy strategy, production capacity, and national interests, while also taking into account global energy market stability."At ADNOC, our focus is unchanged: meeting the growing energy needs of our customers and partners around the world with reliability, responsibility, and the ambition to deliver more... across oil, gas, chemicals, and low carbon and renewable energy," he said in a post on X on Tuesday.The UAE joined OPEC in 1967, and as a producer of significant volumes, its membership of the group carried weight in its setting of production targets and ultimately global prices.One analyst noted that the veteran member is likely seeking freedom from output limitations to strongly raise output.OPEC is heavily influential over global oil prices through its monthly meeting, where many of the world's largest producers agree on production levels for the weeks ahead.Sparta energy analyst Phil Crosby said in written comments tothat the country's exit was not entirely surprising and had been "on the cards" for some time."They'll want to produce closer to what their capacity is longer term, which will put some pressure on oil, but having already lost 1 billion barrels of supply from the war, this won't be a huge headache for a while," Crosby said.He added that they can probably sustainably produce 4.5-4.8 million barrels per day once Hormuz opens, noting that the country was allowed 3.4 mmb/d under OPEC quotas.has reached out to other OPEC members.

Oil & Energy146d ago

UAE's OPEC+ Exit Weakens Cartel's Market Grip, Raises Volatility Risks, Analysts Say

The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, delivering a significant blow to the group's ability to manage global oil markets and raising questions about the future of coordinated supply policy, Rystad Energy strategists said on Tuesday.The Gulf state, which produces about 4.8 million barrels per day and has ambitions to raise output further, has been among a handful of members capable of adjusting supply to respond to market shocks."OPEC and OPEC+ have only ever been as strong as members' willingness to hold barrels back," Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a market note on Tuesday. "Losing a member with significant spare capacity takes a real tool out of the group's hands."The UAE's departure strips the producer group of one of its core mechanisms of influence, spare capacity that can be deployed to offset disruptions or withdrawn to support prices.Leon said the move weakens the group's ability to manage supply imbalances over time.Rystad said the impact on prices may be limited by ongoing geopolitical risks in the near term, including the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which continues to inject uncertainty into global supply flows.However, the longer-term implications are more profound. The consultancy said that with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, OPEC+ may find it difficult to calibrate output and maintain price stability.The shift comes as global oil demand approaches a potential peak, altering the incentives for low-cost producers. Rather than holding back production under quota systems, countries with available capacity may prioritize maximizing output and protecting market share.The move could place greater pressure on Saudi Arabia to shoulder a larger share of production adjustments to stabilize markets, a role Rystad analysts said may become difficult to sustain on its own.Saxo Bank strategists said the UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ marks a shift in global oil policy at a time when the ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted global energy flows and drained both commercial and strategic crude inventories worldwide."The UAE is seizing the opportunity to exit OPEC and remove production constraints that have limited its ability to utilize growing capacity," said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.The UAE has steadily expanded its production capacity in recent years, driven by upstream investments led by Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Group. Saxo Bank said that before output fell last month to 2.2 million b/d, production had climbed to about 3.6 mmb/d.The country's current crude production capacity stands at about 4.85 mmb/d, with a target of reaching 5 mmb/d by 2027.Meanwhile, Sparta Commodities analysts said the producer cartel is facing renewed questions over its long-term cohesion after the UAE's departure, though the immediate impact on global oil balances remains muted."For the short-term, it means very little in terms of oil balances with the Strait of Hormuz closed," the analysts said, adding that the implications are more in the longer-term if and when the OPEC+ group gets back to its prior role in the market.Over the longer term, the UAE is expected to increase production to about 4.5-4.8 million b/d, up from its OPEC+ quota of about 3.4 million b/d. Sparta said the shift could introduce additional barrels into the market, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.With the exit, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures, said the UAE is positioning itself to ramp up oil production as it seeks greater autonomy outside the constraints of OPEC+.Flynn said that the UAE has long been constrained by an outdated production baseline set at about 3.2 million b/d in about 2018. However, the Gulf state has since made significant investments in upstream capacity, lifting its production potential to exceed 5 million b/d in the coming years.

Oil & Energy146d ago

US Oil Update: Oil Futures Climb as UAE Quits OPEC

Global oil benchmarks surged on Tuesday as the UAE announced its historic withdrawal from OPEC, fracturing the alliance as a dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz pushed transit levels to near zero.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 3.9% to $100.18 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 2.9% to $111.35/bbl.In a heavy blow to the global oil cartel, the UAE withdrew from the group on Tuesday. The UAE's exit, effective May 1, marks a major strategic break from Saudi Arabia."In the medium term, the market should be able to absorb additional UAE barrels given depleted global inventories and the need to rebuild reserves," Saxo Bank analysts said."Over time, however, the departure raises a broader strategic question: if other producers begin prioritizing market share over quota discipline, OPEC's ability to manage orderly markets through coordinated supply adjustments may increasingly be called into question," they added.State media confirmed the decision followed an internal review of domestic production and future capacity."The UAE's decision to exit from OPEC reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals," posted Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, the UAE's Minister of Energy, on social media.Meanwhile, market tension remains high as the US and Iran continue a military standoff that has effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz.Despite reports that the Trump administration is reviewing a new Iranian counterproposal to lift the blockade, no progress toward reopening the waterway has materialized.Analysts say that the persistent supply squeeze is now spilling over into refined products, with diesel and jet fuel prices hurtling toward $200/bbl, fueling global frustration over the war's mounting economic toll.

Oil & Energy146d ago

Europe, Asia Gas Prices Surge on Supply Shock While US Prices Slide, EIA Says

Global natural gas prices have diverged sharply since the Feb. 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with European and Asian benchmarks rising while US prices decline, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.European LNG futures at the Title Transfer Facility averaged $14.80 per million British thermal units for the week ending Apr. 24, up 35% from pre-closure levels, according to Bloomberg, EIA said.In East Asia, front-month Japan-Korea Marker prices rose 51% to $16.02/MMBtu. In contrast, US Henry Hub prices have fallen 9% since Feb. 28, reflecting limited export growth and ample domestic supply.The disruption has affected more than 10 billion cubic feet per day of LNG supply, about 20% globally, primarily from Qatar's Ras Laffan facility. No LNG vessels transited the strait between March 1 and April 24, EIA said, citing Kpler data.US export gains are expected to offset only a small portion of the lost supply. Since February, the Department of Energy has approved 0.6 Bcf/d in additional export capacity to non-free trade agreement countries, including 0.5 Bcf/d at Plaquemines LNG and 0.1 Bcf/d at Elba Island. Another 2.4 Bcf/d of capacity is expected online by the end of 2026 from Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3.However, US terminals are already running near capacity. LNG exports averaged 17.9 Bcf/d in March, the second-highest on record after 18.4 Bcf/d in December 2025, with utilization at 94%, up from 17.3 Bcf/d and 91% in February.Supply pressures intensified after QatarEnergy declared force majeure on March 4, forcing Asian buyers, who import over 80% of Qatari gas, to seek spot cargoes. European gas storage ended winter at 28% capacity, below the five-year average of 41%, underscoring the need for restocking.In Asia, limited storage capacity is likely to keep JKM prices sensitive to weather-driven demand.Despite global volatility, US prices remain relatively insulated. Front-month Henry Hub futures have fallen 9% since the week ending Feb. 27, with prompt-month prices at their lowest since October 2024 at the start of injection season.

Oil & Energy146d ago

Update: UAE to Leave OPEC From May 1

(Updates with official statement and analyst comments throughout the story.)The UAE will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies effective May 1, the country's Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazroui confirmed on social media Tuesday."The UAE's decision to exit from OPEC reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals," Al Mazroui posted on X.The energy minister told Reuters earlier that the government did not consult any other country before making the decision to leave the cartel. He said this decision will give the UAE the flexibility to make changes to production, storage and shipping energy products.The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 and as a producer of significant volumes, its membership of the group carried weight in its setting of production targets and ultimately global prices.One analyst noted that the veteran member is likely seeking freedom from output limitations to strongly raise output.OPEC is heavily influential over global oil prices through a monthly meeting in which many of the world's largest producers agree on production levels for the weeks ahead.Sparta energy analyst Phil Crosby said in written comments tothat the country's exit was not entirely surprising and had been "on the cards" for some time."They'll want to produce closer to what their capacity is longer term, which will put some pressure on oil, but having already lost 1 billion barrels of supply from the war, this won't be a huge headache for a while," Crosby said.He added that they can probably sustainably produce 4.5-4.8 million barrels per day once Hormuz opens, noting that the country was allowed 3.4 mmb/d under OPEC quotas.has reached out to other members of OPEC.

Oil & Energy146d ago

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Down Amid Rising Inventories, Drop in LNG Feedgas

US natural gas futures were down on Tuesday, hovering near 18-month lows, amid rising gas injection into inventories, which are now significantly above recent averages.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract were down 0.62% at $2.71 per million British thermal units.Last week, the Energy Information Administration reported a net injection of 103 billion cubic feet into storage, ahead of market expectations at 96 Bcf, last year's 77 Bcf build, and the five-year average for this period at 64 Bcf.Meanwhile, natural gas output remained relatively flat at 106.5 Bcf per day, while LNG feedgas flows dropped by 0.5 Bcf/d last week, according to NRG Energy.According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, both residential and commercial demand still have room to decline before hitting their summer lows, making the outlook further bearish for US natural gas prices, at least in the near term.Weather forecasts, however, have turned bullish, with most regions across the central and eastern US expected to see below-normal temperatures from May 5 to May 11, according to the National Weather Service, adding fresh momentum to the market.

Oil & Energy146d ago

UAE to Reportedly Leave OPEC From May 1

The UAE will withdraw from OPEC and OPEC + effective May 1, it announced on Tuesday, according to the multiple media outlets.The country reached the decision to leave the group, heavily influential over oil prices through its monthly meeting that collectively sets output, after a review of its domestic production policies and current and future capacity, the Khaleej Times reported.Other motives were national interests and the country's commitment to meeting the market's urgent needs amid geopolitical fluctuations, the report said.The article said the UAE joined OPEC in 1967 and that it played a role in supporting the stability of the global oil markets and in promoting dialogue among producer nations.The UAE will seek to gradually and thoughtfully increase production, in line with demand and market conditions, after it leaves the organization, according to the publications.UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazroui told Reuters that the government did not consult any other country before making the decision to leave the cartel. He said this decision will give UAE the flexibility to make changes to production, storage and shipping energy products.has reached out to UAE energy ministry for comments.

Oil & Energy146d ago

EMEA Oil update: Crude Hovers Over 3-Weeks Peak as Diplomacy Stall

Oil futures surged to an over three-weeks high on Tuesday as the market remained skeptical of a new Iranian peace proposal.Front-month Murban crude futures gained 2.5% to $106.84 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 2.7% to $111.16/bbl.While reports emerged that Tehran offered a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to the US naval blockade, analysts at Commerzbank noted that the market is "losing its faith" in such stories after numerous false starts."US-Iran peace talks remain at an impasse, with efforts to resume negotiations stalled. Iran reportedly offered the US a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, which the White House confirmed is being discussed by President Trump's national security team," Saxo Bank analysts said.However, in a heavy blow to the global oil cartel, the UAE withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on Tuesday.Meanwhile, the physical impact of the US-led blockade is becoming increasingly stark.Data from Kpler reveals that Iranian oil exports have collapsed by 70%, dropping to just 567,000 barrels per day from a March average of 1.85 million.With Iranian storage facilities estimated to have less than 22 days of capacity remaining, the country faces forced production cuts of up to 1.5 million barrels per day by mid-May.This supply vacuum was underscored on Monday when two Iran-linked supertankers, the Tifani and Phonix, were seen turning east away from the blockade after being intercepted by US forces near Sri Lanka.Looking ahead, the prospect of a "cruel summer" for global consumers is growing, strategists at RBC Capital Markets noted.RBC analysts warned that the conflict, now entering its third month, has triggered the largest supply shock in modern history by displacing nearly one billion barrels of crude and refined products.Even if a diplomatic breakthrough occurs, experts caution that the damage to infrastructure and logistics will make any recovery of Middle Eastern production extremely slow, ensuring that high prices and tight inventories persist through the peak seasonal demand period.

Oil & Energy146d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slide Despite Absence of Peace Advances Between US, Iran

European natural gas futures fell on Tuesday, with no advances in the stalemate between the US and Iran as the conflict reached a duration of exactly two months.The front-month Dutch TTF gas contract was down 0.58% to 44.38 euros ($51.91) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP benchmark was down 0.23% to 109.54 British pence ($1.48) per therm.On Monday, Tehran reportedly shared its latest proposal, which involved reopening the Strait of Hormuz, in return for Washington lifting its blockade against the country.It also demanded that discussions regarding its nuclear program be postponed to a later date, according to an Axios report, citing a US official and two other sources.US President Donald Trump is reportedly skeptical of this latest proposal, as it sidesteps the key nuclear issue altogether, according to a report by The New York Times, citing multiple people who were briefed on the ongoing discussions.The crucial strait remained effectively closed for the ninth-straight week, with just seven vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said buyers are increasingly turning to the spot market to make up for supply shortages.Hynes also noted that fewer LNG tankers have reached Europe so far in April, compared with a year ago, citing ship tracking data showing volumes may be down by 3% year-over-year. Europe is seeking to refill its gas storage ahead of next winter.The continent has a thinner reserve left this year, at 31.75% of capacity, compared to 38.42% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.Weather forecasts foresee colder temperatures across Eastern and Southeastern Europe in late April, amid a rare Arctic cold air intrusion, according to Severe-Weather EU. This is expected to increase demand for heating gas, even after the withdrawal season came to an end.

Oil & Energy146d ago

Market Chatter: Saudi Aramco Extends Juaymah LPG Export Suspension Through May

Saudi Aramco has extended the suspension of liquefied petroleum gas shipments from its critical Juaymah export terminal through May, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.The report noted that the state energy giant recently informed international buyers that deliveries of propane and butane originally halted following a pipeline infrastructure failure will remain offline for another month, according to sources familiar with the matter.The disruption stems from a Feb. 23 incident involving the collapse of a portion of the trestle that carries delivery pipelines to the terminal's loading berths.The company did not respond immediately to' request for comments.While Aramco initially characterized the damage as a structural failure with no reported leaks or injuries, the prolonged outage has heightened anxiety in global energy markets.The Juaymah facility is the world's seventh-largest LPG export hub, typically moving an average of 450,000 tons per month to major industrial buyers in India, China, Japan, and South Korea.With roughly 60% of Juaymah's 2025 exports previously destined for India, the continued absence of Saudi supply is forcing Asian refiners to seek more expensive alternatives from the US West Coast and West Africa.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy146d ago

Interest Grows in North American Hydrocarbons as Middle East Conflict Endures, Says WoodMac

The depth and duration of the disruption to global energy supplies by the closure of a single waterway in the Middle East's cluster of oil producing countries has prompted increased interest in resources available elsewhere, Wood Mackenzie said in an opinion article on Monday.While there were already plans to increase production from various geographies before the Iran war, the conflict has provided additional momentum to bring these forth, according to the article's author, Ed Crooks, Wood Mackenzie Vice Chair for the Americas and Energy Gang podcast host.Venezuela has been moving faster to raise output, something facilitated by the capture of President Nicolas Madura in January. Legislative reforms have passed in the National Assembly giving clarity of maximum royalties and taxes.At the same time, state oil company PDVSA lost exclusive control of oil production and sales, the article said, making way for private players to have control of their own projects and access to arbitration.Foreign oil companies have set out plans to boost the country's output. Chevron (CVX) said it can boost its production in Venezuela by 50% over an 18-24 month timespan and Repsol is aiming for the same increase within 12 months.Shell (SHEL) is said to be in negotiations with Venezuela's government to develop more gas assets and could take final investment decisions before the end of the year if conditions are right.Elsewhere, there was record revenue generated by a lease sale of areas in Alaska's National Petroleum reserve, Crooks noted, while in the Gulf of Mexico, which the US government recognizes as Gulf of America, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) said it had made an oil discovery that would extend the working life of its production facilities.BP (BP) last month said it received approval from the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to develop its $5 billion Kaskida project.Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's president, said she was in favor of increasing natural gas production through development of unconventional resources to reduce dependence on the US which provides about 75% of Mexico's gas. It now targets output of 3.2 billion cubic feet per day from unconventional sources by 2035.Given the lead times involved in establishing more projects, companies need relative certainty of future commodities prices and change in output to decide on whether investing is viable.There is no sign of any general uptick in US energy industry activity at present with no increase in the number of drilling rigs operating in the US around mid-April, the article said.Venezuela has been able to achieve an increase as a result of easing of US sanctions, with output rising to 1.1 million barrels a day in March from 900,000 in January. But resources like those in Alaska or the Gulf of America will need years to reach the market.Venezuela may have some capacity to boost LNG supply if its gas can be piped to Trinidad to supply the Atlantic LNG liquefaction plant there.Meanwhile Eni (E) and Repsol have reached a deal with Venezuela's government through which they will export gas from the Perla field using a floating LNG vessel. There is also an opportunity for gas to be piped to Colombia, which would free up the LNG it otherwise uses.

$BP$CVX$E$OXY$SHEL

Oil & Energy146d ago

Energy Efficiency Could Protect Australia From Ongoing Diesel Supply Crunch, Says IEEFA

Australia's heavy reliance on diesel imports is leaving it vulnerable to the current global supply shock and price increases resulting from the Middle East conflict, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Tuesday.The world's largest diesel importer has come under mounting pressure in recent weeks, given heavy reliance on imports for roughly 87% of supply, with the fuel underpinning key sectors of the country's economy.Amandine Denis-Ryan, the CEO of IEEFA Australia, highlighted significant scope for demand-side adjustments nonetheless.This included measures such as eco-driving, improved maintenance, and logistics optimization, which could cut diesel use by 10% to 20% across key sectors within weeks.Similarly, in mining, agriculture and railways, the report highlighted the need for improving idle-time, payloads and driver behaviors, to deliver savings of up to 40%, which can be critical during periods of increasing tight supplies like the past few weeks.The report also flagged Australia's geographic isolation from major fuel exporters as a key vulnerability, warning that it could leave the country with a fuel crunch that could potentially last longer than other countries with energy supply vulnerabilities.

Oil & Energy147d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as US Remains Skeptical of Iran's Latest Proposal

European natural gas futures were up on Tuesday, as Iran's proposal to bring an end to hostilities in the region has reportedly failed to impress US officials.The front-month Dutch TTF gas contract was up 0.74% to 44.97 euros ($52.62) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP benchmark rose 1.37% to 111.29 British pence ($1.50) per therm.Tehran's latest proposal involved reopening the Strait of Hormuz, in return for Washington lifting its blockade against the country, with the critical discussions regarding the country's nuclear program set to be held at a later date, according to an Axios report, citing a US official and two other sources familiar with the matter.However, US President Donald Trump is reportedly skeptical of this latest proposal, as it sidesteps the key nuclear issue altogether, according to a report by The New York Times, citing multiple people who were briefed on the ongoing discussions.The strategically crucial Strait remained effectively closed for the ninth-straight week, with just seven vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, buyers are increasingly turning to the spot market to make up for supply shortages.Hynes also noted that fewer LNG tankers have reached Europe so far in April, compared to the same period a year ago, citing ship tracking data to show that volumes might be down by as much as 3% year-over-year, even as the region begins refilling its inventories.Europe currently has depleted natural gas storage, at just 31.75% of capacity, compared to 38.42% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Oil & Energy147d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Hits 3-Week Peak Amid Hormuz Standoff

Crude prices extended gains on Tuesday with Brent futures hovering above a three-week peak as the market remained skeptical of a new Iranian peace proposal.The Brent futures contract gained 2.3% to $110.72 per barrel, taking the contract to its highest since April 7.Murban closed at $104.19 on April 27 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update.While reports emerged that Tehran offered a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to the US naval blockade, analysts at Commerzbank noted that the market is "losing its faith" in such stories after numerous false starts."US-Iran peace talks remain at an impasse, with efforts to resume negotiations stalled. Iran reportedly offered the US a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, which the White House confirmed is being discussed by President Trump's national security team," Saxo Bank analysts said.The physical impact of the US-led blockade is becoming increasingly stark.Data from Kpler reveals that Iranian oil exports have collapsed by 70%, dropping to just 567,000 barrels per day from a March average of 1.85 million.With Iranian storage facilities estimated to have less than 22 days of capacity remaining, the country faces forced production cuts of up to 1.5 million barrels per day by mid-May.This possibility of such a supply cut was reinforced on Monday when two Iran-linked supertankers, the Tifani and Phonix, were seen turning east away from the blockade after being intercepted by US forces near Sri Lanka.Looking ahead, the prospect of a "cruel summer" for global consumers is growing, strategists at RBC Capital Markets noted.RBC analysts warned that the conflict, now entering its third month, has triggered the largest supply shock in modern history by displacing nearly one billion barrels of crude and refined products.Even if a diplomatic breakthrough occurs, experts caution that damage to infrastructure and logistics entail a slow future recovery in Middle Eastern oil and gas output, ensuring higher prices and tighter inventories persist.

Oil & Energy147d ago

Iran Reportedly Proposes Hormuz Reopening as US Reviews Plan

Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz while delaying nuclear talks, with Leavitt saying the proposal is under discussion, according to media reports.US President Donald Trump discussed the Iranian proposal with senior national security officials during meetings held on Monday, Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, said in a press briefing."I can confirm the president has met with his national security team this morning," Leavitt said, adding that the proposal is reportedly being discussed.Leavitt did not comment on whether the administration would accept the proposal.The proposal presented by Iran on Sunday suggests reopening the Strait of Hormuz while postponing negotiations over the nuclear program to a later stage, according to media reports.Leavitt said Trump's key conditions remain unchanged. She declined to confirm whether the administration is actively considering the proposal and said Trump will address the issue publicly soon.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized the proposal, arguing it would give Iran control over access to an international waterway, Rubio said in an interview with Fox News.Rubio said Iran's approach would require ships to seek permission or face threats, which he said undermines the principle of open international navigation.He added the US would not accept any system that allows Iran to regulate access or impose costs on vessels using the Strait of Hormuz.The developments follow a planned second round of US-Iran talks over the weekend that did not proceed as expected.US President Donald Trump said he did not send representatives to Islamabad, citing internal divisions within Iran's leadership, according to a Truth Social post on Saturday.Trump said, "... there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their leadership," adding, "If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!"The US Department of State did not immediately respond to' requests for comment.Oil markets reacted to the developments, with Brent crude rising about 2.77% to $108.25 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate gaining about 2.42% to $96.68.

Oil & Energy147d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Rises as US-Iran Stalemate Keeps Hormuz Disruptions in Focus

Crude oil futures climbed in after-hours trading on Monday as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely limited, keeping global supplies tight.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 2.22% to $96.52 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 2.68% to $108.11/bbl.The world is living on borrowed barrels and on borrowed time until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said, adding that the June contract is up as tentative US-Iran talks faltered to nothing this weekend.US officials are discussing a new Iranian proposal on resolving the war with Tehran, the White House said Monday, as the conflict remains in a stalemate with energy supplies from the region reduced.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reportedly said that President Trump had convened a meeting of national security officials earlier in the day to discuss the Iranian proposal.She said Trump's "red lines with respect to Iran have been made very, very clear," adding that Trump would address the matter "very soon."The US Treasury Department also said on Monday that Washington will sanction any country conducting business with sanctioned Iranian airlines, including the provision of jet fuel."The Treasury will impose maximum pressure on Iran and will not hesitate to act against any third parties that facilitate or conduct business with Iranian entities," the Treasury said in a social media post on X.Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi also said that Tehran was reviewing President Trump's request for negotiations, according to media reports.ING strategists said the lack of progress means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice higher, as there is little alternative to fill the about 13 million b/d shortfall.Araghchi also met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday to discuss the conflict as negotiations between the sides appear to have stalled.Putin reportedly told Araghchi that Russia would "do everything that serves your interests, the interests of all the people of the region, so that peace can be achieved as soon as possible".The US and Iran have mostly observed a ceasefire since early April, but the double blockade of the Hormuz has ground vessel traffic through the strategic waterway to near zero.Saxo Bank strategists said crude is set to grind higher as Hormuz remains effectively closed, extending disruptions across the Middle East and tightening the availability of critical commodities."Brent crude trades at a three-week high as efforts to revive peace talks have stalled, with an Iranian proposal reportedly calling for nuclear negotiations to be postponed to a later stage," Saxo Bank analysts said.

Oil & Energy147d ago

Crude Market Faces "Cruel Summer" as War-Driven Supply Shock Ripples West, RBC Says

The Middle East conflict is tightening global energy markets and raising the risk of a "cruel summer" for consumers, as constrained supply collides with peak seasonal demand and policymakers struggle to contain the fallout, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Sunday.RBC analysts said the conflict, now in its third month, has displaced up to 1 billion barrels of crude and refined products from global markets, marking what some analysts describe as the largest supply shock in modern history.However, despite intermittent ceasefire signals and market optimism around a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations between Iran and the US remain deadlocked.Iran has refused to abandon uranium enrichment, while the US has yet to secure meaningful concessions, with recent talks failing to materialize.RBC said for weeks the Trump administration has leaned on messaging that the conflict could end soon, helping cap near-term oil prices. However, market participants said that the narrative may be masking the severity of the supply crunch and delaying necessary demand destruction."The price response has been unusually muted given the scale of the disruption," RBC analysts said, adding that subdued prices risk fostering complacency among policymakers and consumers alike.The analysts said even in a best-case scenario, the return of Middle Eastern supply is expected to be slow. Damage to oil fields, export terminals, and logistics networks could take 3 to 6 months to repair, RBC said, with longer timelines likely if subsurface infrastructure has been severely damaged.Uncertainty over the true extent of the damage remains high, with satellite imagery offering only partial insights and on-the-ground assessments still pending.Meanwhile, global inventories are drawing down as supply remains constrained. RBC analysts expect crude and refined product prices to rise further into the summer, driven by steady demand and tightening fundamentals.Refinery margins are also set to strengthen, as limited product availability pushes up fuel prices. However, the dynamic carries risks, as higher costs could eventually trigger demand destruction and weigh on the global economy.Though Asia has been the epicenter of the crisis, the effects of the Iranian conflict are being felt in Europe, where energy import costs have surged.The European Union has spent an additional 24 billion euros ($28.1 billion) on fossil fuel imports since February, with aviation among the hardest-hit sectors.Major carriers, including Lufthansa, KLM, and Scandinavian Airlines, have collectively canceled tens of thousands of flights due to high fuel costs and route constraints. Some airlines said that fuel supplies are only secured through mid-May, raising the prospect of further disruptions.The conflict is also accelerating shifts in consumer behavior. Electric vehicle adoption is rising rapidly, with battery-electric registrations in Europe jumping in early 2026, while second-hand EV sales have surged in key markets.On the demand side, RBC said Asian governments are taking aggressive steps to curb energy consumption.South Korea has extended fuel price controls, while India has cut industrial LNG supplies by 20%. Bangladesh has introduced fuel rationing, and countries including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka have reinstated remote work policies and driving restrictions.China, the world's largest energy importer, appears better positioned to absorb the shock, having built up strategic reserves. However, its reliance on Middle Eastern supply, which accounts for more than half of its imports, leaves it exposed to prolonged disruption.RBC analysts said that the combination of steady demand, constrained supply, and limited price response could amplify the eventual market correction.The analysts said any additional disruptions, including refinery outages, export restrictions, or further attacks on energy infrastructure, could exacerbate shortages just as summer demand peaks.

Oil & Energy147d ago

Market Chatter: JPMorgan, HSBC Lead $6 Billion Financing for Kuwait Pipeline Stake Sale

JPMorgan (JPM) and two Kuwait-based lenders will join HSBC (HSBC) to form a $6-billion financing syndicate for potential buyers of a stake in Kuwait Petroleum Corporation's crude pipeline network, Reuters reported, citing sources.KPC has reportedly been in discussions with a group of prospective buyers regarding the sale of a stake in crude oil pipelines worth almost $7 billion.However, investors want guarantees given the risk of supply disruptions through Kuwait's pipeline network and the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a source told Reuters.The syndicate is offering a loan to finance the KPC pipeline stake deal with a 20-year tenure and indicative pricing of 170 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, the sources said.National Bank of Kuwait and Kuwait Finance House are also reportedly participating in the loan.HSBC is reportedly acting as lead underwriter for the transaction.The stake sale was launched before the US-Israel campaign on Iran that began on Feb. 28.The KPC pipeline complex transports crude and refined products across Kuwait, connecting it with the country's export terminals in the Arabian Gulf.HSBC, JPMorgan, KPC, NBK, and KFH did not immediately respond to' requests for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $312.01, Change: $+3.73, Percent Change: +1.21%

$HSBC$JPM

Oil & Energy147d ago

Middle East Conflict Hits LNG Output, Asia Bears Brunt of Supply Shock, Rystad Says

The Middle East conflict has upended global LNG fundamentals, wiping out a significant share of Qatari output and triggering a prolonged reassessment of gas balances across Asia and Europe, Rystad Energy strategists said in a report Monday.Rystad analysts said March marked the end of a 12-month streak of year-over-year LNG production growth, as strikes on key infrastructure in Qatar curtailed an estimated 17% of the country's liquefaction capacity for three to five years.Though rising output from the US and other producers limited month-over-month global losses to under 2 million tons, the analysts said the longer-term impact is far more severe.Rystad now projects total supply losses of 32-40 million tons in 2026, with downside risk up to 68 million tons, if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist or worsen.A limited restart of Qatari operations in mid-April has done little to shift the broader outlook, given the scale of infrastructure damage and uncertainty over maritime flows through Hormuz.Asia has borne the immediate brunt of the disruption, Rystad analysts said. With about 83% of interrupted cargoes traditionally flowing to the region, import-dependent economies have been forced to make rapid demand adjustments.South Asia saw LNG imports fall 18% y-o-y amid price sensitivity and substitution effects, while even affluent East Asian buyers cut imports by about 15%, a sharper-than-expected 2.5 million ton decline.Rystad said the squeeze has rippled through fuel markets, with coal burn rising again in the Pacific Basin and lifting regional prices by 45% y-on-y as governments and utilities seek cheaper alternatives.China has not been immune. Supported by a robust domestic supply, the country's LNG import forecast for 2026 has been revised down to 70.6 million tons, reflecting both weaker marginal demand and structural shifts in procurement strategy.Europe, in contrast, has so far avoided visible stress beyond elevated benchmark prices at the Title Transfer Facility.LNG imports were broadly flat month-over-month and year-over-year, helped by resilient US flows and mild weather that has curbed gas burn, while supporting modest storage injections alongside strong renewable generation.However, Rystad said that Europe's apparent stability may be temporary. The consultancy said competition for US cargoes is likely to intensify as Middle Eastern supply remains constrained, while pipeline capacity constraints limit Europe's ability to substitute for alternative flows."Stable March supply could lull the continent into a false sense of security," the report said, adding that Europe may ultimately face a choice between lower storage heading into winter or reduced gas consumption.Rystad projected that the Middle East conflict is set to reshape LNG markets through 2030, with structural losses from damaged Qatari facilities and delays to major projects, including Qatar's North Field Expansion and the Ruwais LNG project, tightening global supply.Higher prices in Europe and Asia are expected, while elevated oil prices could put downward pressure on US Henry Hub benchmarks.

Oil & Energy147d ago

US-Boarded Tankers Continue Westbound Journey Across Indian Ocean, Bloomberg Analysis Says

Two Iran-linked tankers are sailing west after US forces boarded them on April 21 and 23, with their destination still unclear, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Monday.US forces boarded the Tifani and the Phonix, also known as Majestic X, during maritime interdiction operations near Sri Lanka, the analysis said, citing the Pentagon.Tracking signals show both vessels traveling west across the Indian Ocean while staying close to each other, the analysis added.US authorities have not outlined the next steps for the ships, keeping their future route and handling unclear, according to the analysis.Despite sailing west, both tankers continue signaling Asian destinations, adding to the uncertainty over their final destinations, the analysis said.Their current path aligns with routes toward Cape Town or toward Diego Garcia in the Chagos archipelago, where the US operates a military base, the analysis noted.The US previously diverted shipments to its own ports after intercepting Venezuelan cargoes in the Caribbean Sea during a similar blockade, according to the analysis.The US began targeting Iran-linked shipping on April 13 after Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz following attacks that started in late February, the analysis said.Although vessels can alter tracking signals, current data shows no signs of manipulation for either tanker, according to the analysis.The US Central Command did not immediately respond to' request for comments.

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Oil & Energy147d ago