-- Global natural gas prices have diverged sharply since the Feb. 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with European and Asian benchmarks rising while US prices decline, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.
European LNG futures at the Title Transfer Facility averaged $14.80 per million British thermal units for the week ending Apr. 24, up 35% from pre-closure levels, according to Bloomberg, EIA said.
In East Asia, front-month Japan-Korea Marker prices rose 51% to $16.02/MMBtu. In contrast, US Henry Hub prices have fallen 9% since Feb. 28, reflecting limited export growth and ample domestic supply.
The disruption has affected more than 10 billion cubic feet per day of LNG supply, about 20% globally, primarily from Qatar's Ras Laffan facility. No LNG vessels transited the strait between March 1 and April 24, EIA said, citing Kpler data.
US export gains are expected to offset only a small portion of the lost supply. Since February, the Department of Energy has approved 0.6 Bcf/d in additional export capacity to non-free trade agreement countries, including 0.5 Bcf/d at Plaquemines LNG and 0.1 Bcf/d at Elba Island. Another 2.4 Bcf/d of capacity is expected online by the end of 2026 from Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3.
However, US terminals are already running near capacity. LNG exports averaged 17.9 Bcf/d in March, the second-highest on record after 18.4 Bcf/d in December 2025, with utilization at 94%, up from 17.3 Bcf/d and 91% in February.
Supply pressures intensified after QatarEnergy declared force majeure on March 4, forcing Asian buyers, who import over 80% of Qatari gas, to seek spot cargoes. European gas storage ended winter at 28% capacity, below the five-year average of 41%, underscoring the need for restocking.
In Asia, limited storage capacity is likely to keep JKM prices sensitive to weather-driven demand.
Despite global volatility, US prices remain relatively insulated. Front-month Henry Hub futures have fallen 9% since the week ending Feb. 27, with prompt-month prices at their lowest since October 2024 at the start of injection season.