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EMEA Oil Update: Brent Firm as Traders Assess Trump Administration's 'Project Freedom'

Oil prices remained firm on Monday as skepticism surrounding US shipping plans and a deadlock in Iran peace talks offset a modest production increase by OPEC+.The Brent futures contract gained 0.8% to $109.01 per barrel. Murban closed at $103.76 on May 1 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update."The market is steadier at the start of the new trading week, despite continued noise around developments in the Persian Gulf," ING said.Sentiment was briefly shaken by the announcement of "Project Freedom," a US plan to guide commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.However, initial selloffs were quickly reversed as the market grew unconvinced by the plan's scope.Analysts note that without active US Navy escorts for inbound vessels, the move likely only provides temporary relief by clearing out existing floating storage rather than restoring normal trade flows.Supply concerns are further exacerbated by a lack of progress in diplomatic channels and shifts within OPEC+.Although the group announced a 188,000 b/d supply increase for June, its first meeting since the UAE's surprise exit, market experts doubt the full volume will reach the market.Over half of the scheduled increase is tied to Persian Gulf producers currently restricted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade.With President Trump reportedly labeling Iran's latest peace proposal "unacceptable" and Tehran refusing to discuss nuclear terms until port blockades are lifted, crude prices continue to hold a significant risk premium.

Oil & Energy141d ago

Market Chatter: Oil Markets Likely to Pivot Higher as Reserves Dwindle With Hormuz Strait Closed

Crude oil markets may be on the verge of pivoting towards a period of sustained higher prices with the Strait of Hormuz now closed for more than two months, some of America's biggest oil companies are warning, Bloomberg reported on Friday.Global stockpiles, strategic reserves and volumes stored on vessels before Feb. 28 -- the start of Iran war -- are now steadily being used up, according to Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP).These supplies have been providing a buffer against higher prices in the last two months but are now running low, said Chevron Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner in an interview on Friday with Bloomberg TV."A lot of the inventory and spare capacity has been depleted already," Bonner said. "There's very little of the buffer left."Bloomberg notes that at just above $100 per barrel, oil prices are far from record levels, even with a key through-route for about a fifth of the world's oil and gas closed for now more than two months.When current reserves run out, prices are likely to reflect the increased imbalance between supply and demand quite quickly, said Exxon CEO Darren Woods on a call with analysts on Friday, Bloomberg reported."It's obvious to most that if you look at the unprecedented disruption and the world's supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn't seen the full impact of that yet," he said. "There's more to come if the strait remains closed."ConocoPhillips Chief Financial Officer Andy O'Brien describes the increases in oil prices since the global energy crisis began as merely a "grace period" because ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz took weeks more to deliver their cargoes, buffering the supply impact.Crude markets have been in a "grace period" since late February until now because ships loaded before the war take weeks to complete their journeys and so have still been delivering cargoes, O'Brien said on a call with analysts Thursday."Now, all of those have reached their destination," he said. "The impacts of the lost supply is going to start to become more apparent," he said, predicting that "critical shortages" would appear in import-dependent countries by June or July.The Bloomberg article made reference to a JPMorgan Chase (JPM) note by analyst Natasha Kaneva which said that developed countries would fall to their lowest ever by September if the strait remains closed and force consumption lower.has contacted the three oil companies to confirm the comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Oil & Energy143d ago

Weekly Crude Prices Log 2nd Weekly Gain on OPEC+ Shake-up, Intensifying Hormuz Disruption

Global oil benchmarks posted a second straight week of gains as the energy market grapples with a tightening blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE's exit from OPEC in a historic fracture of the allianceWest Texas Intermediate closed Friday at $102.5/bbl, up from $94.88/bbl the previous week, while Brent futures settled higher at $109.2/bbl, up from $105.98/bbl a week earlier.Both crude benchmarks, including Brent and West Texas Intermediate, added 3.5% and 8%, respectively, on a weekly basis."Brent Crude remains elevated after hitting a wartime high on Thursday, with no sign that US and Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted anytime soon, prolonging and worsening the supply squeeze," Saxo Bank analysts said.The market has been characterized by extreme volatility this week, driven by a combination of unprecedented geopolitical supply shocks and a structural shift in the OPEC+ alliance.The week opened under immense pressure. Following nine weeks of conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to significant commercial traffic.By Tuesday, exports through the Strait had plummeted to just 3.8 million barrels per day, a staggering drop from the pre-crisis levels of over 20 mb/d."An oil major has warned of imminent critical shortages for some nations. However, Thursday's sharp reversal underscores a market that is taking the stairs up but risks the elevator down on any sudden easing headline - making conditions exceptionally challenging for traders," Saxo Bank analysts added.On Wednesday, Brent crude rose for its seventh consecutive session, hitting levels not seen since the peak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022.The most significant market-moving event occurred mid-week with the surprise announcement that the UAE would officially exit OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1.This departure, the most significant since Qatar and Angola's exits, has raised serious questions about the future of quota discipline within the remaining OPEC members.The market is currently weighing the long-term bearish potential of more UAE supply against the short-term bullish reality of the Middle East supply blockade.On Friday, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued an alert warning of sanctions risks tied to Iran-linked payments for Hormuz transit, flagging potential exposure for global firms and financial institutions."Maritime industry participants involved with vessels calling at Iranian ports face significant sanctions risk under multiple sanctions authorities targeting Iran's shipping sector and ports, and OFAC will continue to aggressively target Iran's main revenue-generating sectors, in particular its petroleum and petrochemical sectors...," OFAC's alert said.Iran may seek payments through government-issued fiat currency, digital assets, offsets, swaps, or in-kind payments, including donations to entities such as the Iranian Red Crescent Society, OFAC added.US sanctions prohibit American individuals and US-controlled foreign entities from engaging in transactions with the Iranian government unless specifically authorized or exempt, OFAC said.Addressing reporters on Friday, Trump said oil and gasoline prices will tumble once the war ends."When the war ends, gasoline prices are going to tumble because there is so much right now on the scene already loaded into tankers, tankers that can't escape the Strait," Trump said, adding that gasoline prices are likely to fall to record lows.The US President described the US naval blockade as "unbelievable.""The blockade has been unbelievable, powerful, 100% it's been actually unbelievable. If we left right now, we'd have a great victory, but we're not doing that, negotiating with them," Trump said.Meanwhile, the market remains in backwardation, with spot prices higher than forward contracts, indicating tight prompt supply amid strong demand.A wide price disconnect emerged when futures hovered around $110/bbl, while physical crude in some regions touched nearly $150/bbl as refiners scrambled for available barrels.On the supply front, US crude stockpiles dropped by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 mmbbls in the week ended April 24, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories are now about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.The US oil rig count rose by one from 407 the previous week to 408, in the week ending May 1, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 472 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, dropped by four to 670 from 674 the previous week.Money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets maintained their net long positions in the week ended April 28, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released on Friday.The data showed that money managers reported 219,650 long positions, down 827 from April 21, while short positions were up 7,073 to 84,149.For the coming week, analysts expect the market to remain highly sensitive to any headlines regarding Hormuz traffic or ceasefire negotiations.

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Oil & Energy143d ago

US Oil Update: Futures Slide on Hopes for US-Iran Talks, Hormuz Reopening

Crude oil futures retreated in after-hours trading on Friday after reports that Iran had sent a new peace proposal to the US via Pakistani mediators, easing fears of a further supply disruption from the Middle East and raising hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped by 2.45% to $102.50 per barrel, while Brent futures were down by 1.21% to $109.06/bbl.On Friday, President Trump sent letters to Congress explaining that, due to the ceasefire, he doesn't need its authorization for military operations in Iran, even though the conflict hit the 60-day mark this week."On April 7, 2026, I ordered a 2-week ceasefire. The ceasefire has since been extended. There has been no exchange of fire between United States Forces and Iran since April 7, 2026. The hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have terminated," Trump said in letters to the House and the Senate.Trump said that despite the success of US operations against Iran and continued efforts to secure peace, the threat posed by Tehran to the US and its forces remains significant.The IRGC Navy command said it will enforce "new rules" over waters near Iran's coast in the Arabian Sea and the Hormuz, making it "a source of security and prosperity for the region."Iran reportedly sent its latest proposal for negotiations with the US to Pakistani mediators on Thursday, according to media reports, as Trump threatens to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports amid behind-the-scenes diplomacy to end the Middle East conflict.The US reportedly sent its list of amendments on Monday to reinsert the nuclear issue into the agreement under discussion, with one of the amendments demanding that Iran commit to not attempting to move any enriched uranium.On Friday, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said it could sanction vessels that pay tolls to Iran for safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, even if those payments are made in the form of charitable donations to Iranian NGOs.The Department said Iranian demands for toll payments may include fiat currency, digital assets, offsets, informal swaps, or charitable donations made to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, Bonyad Mostazafan, or Iranian embassy accounts.Traffic through the Hormuz was cut by half on April 30 to seven crossings from the previous day, with traffic split between four commercial and three non-commercial movements, according to Kpler.

Oil & Energy143d ago

VLGC Market Tightens as Asia Demand, Canal Congestion Drive Rates Higher, Vortexa Says

Very Large Gas Carrier freight rates surged to $244.8 per metric ton as US liquefied petroleum gas exports hit 2.8 million barrels per day in April, lifting shipping costs, Anna Zhminko, Associate Market Analyst at Vortexa, said in a Thursday note.Shipowners repositioned up to 150 VLGCs to the US Gulf Coast by mid-March, driven by strong export demand during the Middle East conflict.By April 30, ballast VLGC volumes heading to the USGC normalized to January 2026 levels, even as export volumes reached record highs at 2.8 million b/d, Vortexa said.US LPG exports to Asia climbed to a record 1.7 million b/d in April, rising 21% over the month and reinforcing US market share amid tighter Middle East supply, the note added.Shipments to Northeast Asia rose 23% over the month to a seasonal record 1.1 million b/d, with nearly one in 10 cargoes rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, according to Vortexa.Panama Canal congestion intensified, pushing 40% of US LPG cargoes to Asia around the Cape, while Neopanamax transit costs rose nearly fourfold to $1.076 million on April 29, Vortexa noted.Freight rates on the BLPG3 route climbed to $244.8 per metric ton on April 29, matching late-2023 Panama draft-period highs despite ongoing fluctuations in vessel availability, Vortexa added.Strong demand, extended voyage durations exceeding 20 days via the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent Panama Canal congestion are continuing to support elevated freight levels, Vortexa said.About 13% of the mainstream VLGC fleet moved into ballast positions in the Atlantic Basin as of April 28, up 3 percentage points from the January 2026 average, the note added.This shift in fleet positioning points to sustained strength in US LPG export volumes into May, even as longer routes and logistical constraints weigh on transit efficiency.Middle East LPG exports, excluding Iran, held near 215,000 b/d in April, tightening vessel availability in the region and reinforcing upward pressure on freight rates, according to the note.

Oil & Energy143d ago

Market Chatter: Russia Becomes Syria's Top Oil Supplier Despite Western Tilt

Russia has become Syria's primary oil supplier, despite Damascus' Western alignment, according to a Reuters report published Friday.The development underscores a pragmatic energy partnership that persists despite lingering resentment over Moscow's backing of former leader Bashar al-Assad, ousted in December 2024 after a 14-year civil war.Two analysts and three Syrian officials reportedly said the growing oil trade between Damascus and Moscow is driven largely by economic necessity, while also strengthening Russia's leverage in a country where it maintains key naval and air bases.Although the relationship risks further straining Syria's ties with the EU and the US, officials acknowledge that Damascus currently has few viable alternatives.was unable to obtain a response from Syria's Ministry of Energy despite multiple attempts.Experts warn the arrangement could expose Syria's already fragile energy sector to renewed Western sanctions.If geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Ukraine, escalate, Washington could pressure Syria to halt Russian oil imports abruptly. Syrian authorities are aware of this vulnerability and have so far unsuccessfully attempted to secure alternative suppliers, including exploring a potential deal with Turkey.Reuters cited maritime analytics firm SynMax, which said Syria's limited financial capacity, combined with years of conflict, has severely restricted its access to conventional tanker operators.As a result, Russian-linked shipping networks have become one of the few practical options. While these networks may pose reputational risks as Syria attempts to rebuild its commercial standing, a rapid shift to standard global supply chains appears unlikely.Syria's dependence on Russian oil also reflects its small market size and weak purchasing power, which hinder its ability to negotiate long-term agreements with major producers such as the Gulf states.Although the country has begun reconnecting to the global financial system, evidenced by the reactivation of its central bank account in New York, its energy options remain constrained.Russia stepped in quickly after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, becoming the first country to resume oil shipments to Syria. In 2025, it supplied about 16.8 million barrels, averaging about 46,000 barrels per day, Reuters said.That figure has since risen to around 60,000 barrels daily. This marks a sharp shift from previous years, when Iran was Syria's primary crude supplier. Iran halted deliveries after Assad's fall, leaving a significant supply gap.Despite regaining control of some oil fields, Syria's domestic production remains far below pre-civil war levels.Current output stands at roughly 35,000 barrels per day, compared to 350,000 before the conflict. With national demand estimated between 120,000 and 150,000 barrels daily, the shortfall is substantial. Russian imports now cover roughly a third of that demand, supplemented by smaller volumes smuggled from neighboring Lebanon.The logistics behind these shipments are complex and often opaque. Much of the oil arrives via sanctioned vessels operating under multiple flags, with ship-to-ship transfers conducted in international waters to obscure origins and ownership.Analysts say such practices suggest an effort to evade sanctions and minimize scrutiny.Ultimately, the trade raises broader concerns about who truly benefits. As Reuters cited one analyst who noted the issue extends beyond Syria's need for oil to include the network of sanctioned actors profiting from the arrangement.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy143d ago

Trump Says Gasoline, Oil Prices Could Tumble Once Iran Conflict Ends

US President Donald Trump said Friday that gasoline and oil prices are expected to tumble once the conflict in Iran ends."When this war ends, gasoline and oil and everything is going to come tumbling down," Trump said.Trump made the remarks during a press briefing, addressing reporters on ongoing US-Iran negotiations."When the war ends, gasoline prices are going to tumble because there is so much right now on the scene already loaded into tankers, tankers that can't escape the Strait," Trump said, adding that gasoline prices are likely to fall to record lows.The US President described the US naval blockade as "unbelievable.""The blockade has been unbelievable, powerful, 100% it's been actually unbelievable. If we left right now, we had a great victory, but we're not doing that, negotiating with them," Trump said.On mediation efforts, Trump said Pakistan had advanced, but an imminent deal remains uncertain."They [Pakistan] continue to work with us, but the trip is a very long one, and we're doing everything in terms of negotiation right now in terms of the negotiation, telephonically, they've made strides, but I'm not sure if they ever get there," he said.On the current situation in Iran, Trump said the country's leadership was "disjointed.""There's tremendous discord... they're having a tremendous problem getting along with each other... it's a very disjointed leadership," Trump said, describing the challenges facing negotiations.He added that Iran wanted to make a deal, but a fragmented leadership was hurting prospects. He said Iran's leadership spans "two to three groups, maybe four," underscoring divisions that hinder a unified agreement.Iran reportedly sent a new proposal through Pakistan on Thursday.Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remains open to diplomacy if the US changes what he called its "expansionist approach" and "threatening rhetoric," according to an official Telegram post.He said Iran stands ready to pursue talks if Washington adjusts its stance, while warning that Iranian forces remain fully prepared to respond decisively to any threat or aggression.The US-Iran conflict, which has nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz and curtailed traffic, has entered its third month, while Pakistan-mediated talks failed initially, though remote communication between the sides continues.Brent crude fell 2.2% to $108.01 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate declined 3.1% to $101.87, reflecting continued pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing US-Iran tensions.

Oil & Energy143d ago

US Warns of Sanctions Risk on Hormuz Payments Amid Iran Transit Demands

The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on Friday issued an alert warning of sweeping sanctions risks tied to Iran-linked payments for Hormuz transit, flagging exposure for global firms and financial institutions.OFAC said Iranian authorities are allegedly threatening shipping and demanding "toll" payments to allow vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.Iran may seek payments through government-issued fiat currency, digital assets, offsets, swaps, or in-kind payments, including donations to entities such as the Iranian Red Crescent Society, OFAC added.It warned that both US and non-US entities face sanctions risks when making such payments or seeking passage guarantees from Tehran, regardless of the payment structure used.US sanctions prohibit American individuals and US-controlled foreign entities from engaging in transactions with the Iranian government unless specifically authorized or exempt, OFAC said.Authorities also bar US persons from dealing with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which Washington has designated under counterterrorism and nonproliferation sanctions frameworks.OFAC said US persons cannot transact with Iranian digital asset platforms, which regulators classify as blocked financial institutions under existing sanctions rules.Non-US entities may also face secondary sanctions if they engage with Iran or the IRGC, potentially restricting their access to the US financial system, the agency said.Officials added that foreign firms could incur civil or criminal liability if their actions cause US-linked insurers, reinsurers, or banks to violate sanctions requirements.OFAC said maritime operators calling at Iranian ports face heightened exposure under multiple sanctions programs, as authorities continue targeting Iran's petroleum and petrochemical revenue streams.US Central Command subjects vessels of all nations entering or leaving Iranian ports to its naval blockade, while OFAC said its authorizations do not override authorities held by other US government agencies.

Oil & Energy143d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Retreats on Iran Proposal for Renewed Peace Talks

EMEA crude futures retreated in after-hours trading on Friday, pressured by reports that Iran had floated a new proposal to restart peace talks, raising expectations that heightened tensions with the US could de-escalate and potentially ease supply risks.Brent crude futures dropped by 2.03% to $108.09 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were down 3.70% to $107.02/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said that Thursday's sharp reversal underscored a market "taking the stairs up but risks the elevator down on any sudden easing headline, making conditions exceptionally challenging for traders."Iran sent its latest proposal for negotiations with the US to Pakistani mediators on Thursday, according to media, as President Trump vowed to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports amid behind-the-scenes diplomacy to end the Middle East conflict.US envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly sent a list of amendments on Monday to reinsert the nuclear issue into the agreement under discussion, with one of the amendments demanding that Iran commit to not attempting to move any enriched uranium.Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated despite a ceasefire. On Wednesday, the US Central Command had prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran in hopes of breaking stalled talks with the US.Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have vowed to respond with "long and painful strikes" on US positions if Washington renews attacks, while reasserting control over the Hormuz.Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and other Iranian officials reportedly said the US blockade, which they insist must be lifted for the sides to resume peace talks and for Hormuz to be reopened, will further push up oil prices.Meanwhile, the US Department of the Treasury said on Friday that it could sanction vessels that pay tolls to Iran for safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, even if those payments are made as charitable donations to Iranian NGOs.The Department said Iranian demands for toll payments may include fiat currency, digital assets, offsets, informal swaps, or charitable donations made to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, Bonyad Mostazafan, or Iranian embassy accounts.Traffic through the Hormuz was cut by half on April 30 to seven crossings from the previous day, with traffic split between four commercial and three non-commercial movements, according to Kpler.On the supply front, OPEC+ is expected to agree on another symbolic production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June, in the group's first move following the UAE's surprise departure.

Oil & Energy143d ago

US Sanctions Iran's Shadow Banking Network for Aiding Oil Trade

The US rolled out sanctions on three Iranian currency exchange houses and a network of associated front companies, accusing them of moving billions of dollars in foreign exchange to support Tehran's oil industry, the Department of the Treasury said on Friday.The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control said the sanctions form part of "Economic Fury," a broader campaign aimed at dismantling Iran's shadow banking system.The sanctioned firms, Pedram Pirouzan and Associates Partnership, also known as Opal Exchange; Nasser Ghasemi Rad and Associates Partnership, or Radin Exchange and Tahayyori and Associates Partnership, also known as Arz Iran Exchange, are accused of facilitating billions of dollars in transactions per year.The Treasury said the entities help convert oil revenues, often received in Chinese yuan, into currencies usable by Iran's military and affiliated groups.The exchange houses operate alongside so-called "rahbar" networks tied to sanctioned Iranian banks, and work with multiple oil exporters and financial intermediaries, the Treasury said.The firms allegedly rely on foreign-based front companies and commercial bank accounts to process transactions across jurisdictions, masking links to sanctioned entities, including the Central Bank of Iran and the National Iranian Oil Company.The individuals linked to the exchanges, including Pedram Pirouzan, Hossein Mohammad Rezaei, Masoud Mohammad Rezaei, Nasser Ghasemi Rad and Ehsan Tahayyori, were also hit with sanctions.OFAC also sanctioned over a dozen companies, it said, that provided material support to Opal Exchange, including trading firms incorporated in multiple jurisdictions and entities in the UAE.The Treasury said Iran's shadow banking system handles tens of billions of dollars in trade each year, largely tied to oil and petrochemical exports.Since February 2025, OFAC has sanctioned over 1,000 Iran-linked individuals, vessels and aircraft as part of that effort.

Oil & Energy143d ago

Saudi Gains 10% Revenue Edge, UAE Oil Income Falls 25% Amid Hormuz Crisis, Bloomberg Analysis Says

Saudi Arabia is capturing a price-driven oil windfall as Brent crude tops $126 per barrel, while Gulf peers lose up to $700 million per day from Hormuz disruptions, according to Bloomberg analysis on Friday.Saudi Arabia is redirecting most crude flows to the Red Sea, securing higher revenue despite shipment losses, while the United Arab Emirates is absorbing income declines due to limited rerouting capacity, the analysis said.Goldman Sachs estimates Saudi weekly oil revenue has climbed 10% above pre-war levels, while the UAE has seen income drop about 25%, the analysis added, citing Goldman Sachs analyst Farouk Soussa.The revenue gap is intensifying competition between the region's two largest economies, as the UAE exits OPEC and prepares to raise output once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the analysis said.Since late February, Saudi Arabia has rerouted about 4 million barrels per day through its East-West pipeline to Yanbu, maintaining exports despite disruptions at the strategic chokepoint, according to the analysis.The UAE increased pipeline shipments to about 2 million b/d in March, but that volume equals only half of February exports, limiting its ability to offset losses, the analysis said.Oman has avoided export cuts due to ports outside Hormuz and has lifted oil revenue roughly 80% since the conflict began, while Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq face steep income declines, the analysis added, citing Goldman Sachs.Equity markets reflect the divergence, as Saudi and Omani stocks outperform peers in the Gulf Cooperation Council, the analysis said.Goldman estimates the six GCC nations are losing about $700 million per day from disrupted flows, with cumulative losses projected to reach $80 billion after two months of closure, according to the analysis.Crude prices have surged since the Iran war disrupted transit through Hormuz, with Brent trading above $126 per barrel Thursday, marking the highest level since 2022, the analysis noted.Airstrikes across Gulf states have damaged infrastructure and weakened tourism, erasing the UAE's pre-war fiscal surplus of 6% of gross domestic product, while Saudi deficits improved only 1 percentage point, the analysis added, citing Goldman Sachs.Oman has shifted from a 7% fiscal deficit to an 8% surplus, while Bahrain is running a 17% deficit, Qatar a 20% deficit, and Kuwait a 40% deficit, Soussa said.JPMorgan estimates the GCC's fiscal position has deteriorated by about 3.6% of gross domestic product during the conflict, the analysis said.Saudi Aramco is expected to post about $32 billion in net income for the first quarter, its highest since Q3 2023, supported by higher prices and lower seasonal costs, analysts said, citing Citi analysts.Debt markets have seen Qatar and Kuwait raise billions through private bond sales, while Bahrain secured a $5.4 billion currency swap from the UAE, according to Bloomberg data.Goldman estimates weekly government borrowing needs across the GCC have doubled from $1.7 billion to $3.5 billion, pushing authorities to diversify funding sources during ongoing disruption, the analysis added.

Oil & Energy143d ago

UAE Quits OPEC+ in Blow to Cartel's Grip on Global Oil Supplies, Rystad Says

The UAE's decision to exit OPEC+ from May 1 is set to weaken the group's ability to manage global oil supply at a time when geopolitical shocks are already distorting the market, Rystad Energy strategists said in a white paper on Friday.Rystad analysts said the move removes one of the few producers in the alliance with meaningful spare capacity and a strong compliance record, undermining OPEC+'s role as a coordinated supply manager.Global oil markets are grappling with a sharp contraction in output following the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has disrupted regional flows and heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz.Rystad said crude and condensate production across key Middle East producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Bahrain and Qatar, dropped from about 27.5 million barrels per day in February to losses averaging 10.6 million b/d in March.The ongoing disruptions are forecasted to deepen to 12.9 million b/d in April before easing from mid-May if tensions subside.Total OPEC+ output declined to 27.68 million b/d in March from about 36.76 million b/d in February, leaving production around 9 million b/d below the producer group's quota.The cartel would respond to such disruptions by adjusting supply in normal conditions. However, the UAE's exit shifts the balance away from coordinated management toward a more competitive production environment.Though the UAE could eventually increase output in response to price signals, its ability to do so in the near term is constrained by logistical disruptions and regional instability.Rystad analysts said the immediate impact lies less in current supply and more in the Gulf country's future flexibility once conditions stabilize.Global crude demand remains resilient at about 105 million bpd, suggesting tighter effective balances than headline figures imply. Though OPEC+ nominal spare capacity is estimated at about 6 million b/d, more than 65% is concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.Rystad said with the UAE leaving the alliance, OPEC+ effectively loses control over about 1.5 million b/d of spare capacity, further limiting its ability to respond collectively to supply shocks.Meanwhile, the UAE's departure reflects growing tension between its expansion strategy and OPEC+ quota constraints. Rystad said the country produced about 3.12 million b/d on average in 2025, below its installed capacity, largely due to production limits.The UAE's production output stood at about 3.4 million b/d under its quota before the latest Middle East conflict.State energy major Adnoc is investing heavily to expand capacity to 5 million b/d by 2027, with a longer-term goal of reaching 6 million b/d.Rystad said expansion projects include the offshore Upper Zakum field and onshore assets such as Bab and Bu Hasa, alongside increased drilling activity led by Adnoc Drilling.A disconnect in capacityThe UAE's exit from OPEC+ follows years of tension between its aggressive $150 billion upstream expansion and the production limits imposed by the coalition.Although the UAE originally aimed for a 5 million b/d capacity by 2030, Rystad said the timeline was repeatedly accelerated.Adnoc's sustainable capacity reached about 4.85 million b/d by late last year, fueled by expansions at giant onshore fields and offshore developments such as Satah Al Razboot and Umm Lulu."The gap between what Abu Dhabi has built and what it has been allowed to produce widened with each new capacity milestone," Rystad Energy analysts said.Though the UAE's potential climbed toward 5 million b/d and potentially 6 million b/d, OPEC+ agreements kept its actual production between 3.2 million and 3.5 million b/d.Meanwhile, its exit is also set to reshape the distribution of spare capacity within OPEC, concentrating market influence more heavily in Saudi Arabia.Total OPEC+ production cuts stood at about 4 million b/d at the start of last year. The figure dropped to about 1 million b/d by May, with the UAE's share shrinking to just 72,000 b/d before its exit.Though OPEC+ still nominally holds about 4.8 million b/d of spare capacity, Rystad Energy estimates that Saudi Arabia accounts for about 1.8 million b/d, close to 40% of the total.Rystad said other producers face constraints that limit their ability to respond quickly. Infrastructure bottlenecks restrict Iraq's spare capacity, while Kuwait is contending with gradual declines at its giant Burgan field.According to Rystad analysts, what remains is largely a Saudi question."Once the UAE operates as a fully independent producer outside the group's framework, and with Iraq and Kuwait facing their respective structural constraints, the levers for any meaningful supply cut or coordinated increment rest almost entirely with Riyadh," the white paper said.The departure could also embolden other producers to reconsider their participation in OPEC+, particularly those with rising capacity and relatively resilient fiscal positions.Rystad analysts said Kazakhstan stands out as a potential candidate. The country has repeatedly exceeded its production targets, expanded output at the Tengiz field, and clashed with the group over compliance."Once the UAE demonstrates that exit is viable and commercially rewarding, the template exists for others to follow," the analysts said.Though geopolitical disruptions and existing supply constraints may temper the immediate impact of the UAE's departure, Rystad analysts say the longer-term implications are more profound.

Oil & Energy143d ago

Indian Oil Holds Retail Fuel Prices Steady Despite Global Surge

State-owned Indian Oil said it has kept retail prices of petrol, diesel and domestic LPG cylinders unchanged, shielding consumers from recent increases in international fuel prices.In a Friday statement, the company said the decision is part of a consumer-focused approach aimed at maintaining price stability for households and essential services.Under the current pricing framework, there has been no change in petrol and diesel prices for the general public, which accounts for about 90% of total consumption.Prices of domestic LPG cylinders weighing 14.2 kilograms, used by roughly 330 million households, have also been left unchanged.Other key fuel prices remain stable. Aviation turbine fuel for domestic airlines operating scheduled services has not been revised, and kerosene supplied through the public distribution system continues at existing rates.Overall, about 80% of petroleum products have seen no price changes, ensuring broad stability for most consumers.Adjustments have been limited to select industrial segments, which represent a relatively small share of total consumption and are subject to periodic revisions in line with global market trends.Prices of bulk and commercial LPG cylinders, accounting for less than 1% of consumption, have been revised, while bulk diesel and aviation fuel for international airline operations have been increased.At the same time, about 4% of petroleum products have recorded price reductions, reflecting fluctuations in global energy markets. In total, 16% of products have seen price increases, largely affecting industrial users.The company said the calibrated approach seeks to balance consumer protection with the need to align certain fuel categories with international price movements.

Oil & Energy143d ago

TotalEnergies Extends Fuel Caps, Offers Fixed Holiday Rates Across France

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) will maintain fuel price caps at 1.99 euros ($2.33) per liter and 2.25 euros per liter through May while extending support measures tied to Middle East tensions, the company said Thursday."TotalEnergies will maintain its fuel price cap policy in France for as long as the crisis in the Middle East lasts and is launching a special single-price operation across France for the May 1st, May 8th, and Ascension Day holidays," the company said in an X post.TotalEnergies will keep the price ceilings introduced on April 8 unchanged in May, pricing gasoline at 1.99 euros per liter and diesel at 2.25 euros per liter across its network.The company will launch a fixed-price program, which it describes as "single price" on May 1, May 8, and Ascension Day on May 14, offering gasoline at 1.99 euros per liter and diesel at 2.09 euros per liter across metropolitan France.The company will also maintain a diesel price cap of 1.99 euros per liter for its gas and electricity customers throughout the calendar year 2026.Price: $91.67, Change: $-1.04, Percent Change: -1.12%

$TTE

Oil & Energy144d ago

US Oil Update: Oil Prices Ease on Latest US-Iran Diplomatic Efforts

Oil prices eased on Friday following reports that Iran reportedly sent a fresh proposal to US via Pakistan late Thursday.The Brent futures contract eased 0.3% to $110.05 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased 1.9% to $103.10 per barrel.According to state news agency IRNA, the latest proposal was reportedly delivered to US officials via Pakistani mediators late Thursday.However, crude remains on track for weekly gains as the fundamental dual blockade persists.Supporting prices "There are limited signs of a US-Iran deal, as the US doubled down on a blockade and Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei cast doubt on the likelihood of a deal, giving a rare statement in which he vowed not to give up the country's nuclear or missile technologies," Saxo Bank analysts said.Commerzbank analysts added that "Markets are focused on when the war with Iran will end and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. But the war is also likely to have significant long-term consequences - similar to the oil price shock of the 1970s."

Oil & Energy144d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop; US-Iran Deadlock Continues, Prolonging Hormuz Closure

European natural gas futures were down slightly on Friday, as the logjam in the Middle East conflict continued, with neither side willing to concede, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut for over two months.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was down 0.25% to 45.86 euros ($53.90) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP contract was down 0.10% to 112.77 British pence ($1.54) per therm. Both Dutch TTF and UK Gas were up for the week, by 3.06% and 2.37%, respectively, according to data from Trading Economics.This comes as the standoff continues between the US and Iran, with White House spokesperson Anna Kelly saying earlier this week that talks with Tehran remain ongoing, but Washington will "not be rushed into making a bad deal," according to Al Jazeera.Meanwhile, the US Central Command is reportedly preparing a "short and powerful" wave of strikes against Iran, aimed at breaking the current deadlock, according to an Axios report, citing sources familiar with the matter.While US President Donald Trump has said that there can be no deal with Iran until the country agrees to a nuclear deal, Tehran has vowed to protect its nuclear program, leading to a protracted standoff, according to Trading Economics.The situation is critical for Europe, as the region begins refilling its gas inventories from depleted levels, currently at 32.49% of capacity, compared to 39.22% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said that the only "saving grace" for the region is that these disruptions have come during "the quiet shoulder season," when heating gas demand plummets.Hynes also noted that China's LNG imports have been 30% lower compared to the same period last year, which further helped keep prices relatively in check despite the two-month-long disruption.

Oil & Energy144d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Eases as Iran Sends Fresh Proposal to US

Global energy markets remain on edge on Friday as reports emerged that Tehran has submitted a fresh diplomatic proposal for negotiations with Washington.The Brent futures contract eased 0.3% to $110.71 per barrel. Murban futures fell 1.5% to $106.39 per barrel.According to state news agency IRNA, the latest proposal was reportedly delivered to US officials via Pakistani mediators late Thursday.However, crude remains on track for weekly gains as the fundamental dual blockade persists."Brent Crude remains elevated after hitting a wartime high on Thursday, with no sign that US and Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted anytime soon, prolonging and worsening the supply squeeze," Saxo Bank analysts said.As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enters its third month, the prospect of a swift resolution has dimmed, with Iran's new Supreme Leader and the US administration both doubling down on their respective positions.Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, signaled a hardline shift in Tehran's policy. Khamenei vowed that the Islamic Republic would not abandon its nuclear or missile technologies, explicitly stating that Iran intends to maintain its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Saxo Bank note.Simultaneously, US President Donald Trump has maintained a firm stance on the blockade of Iranian ports, despite the resulting upward pressure on global oil prices.Meanwhile, the wait-and-see period for the paper markets may be ending."The gap between the paper and physical markets is narrowing as tightness begins to materialise for the first time since the conflict began," ANZ analysts said.

Oil & Energy144d ago

Analysts Expect Another OPEC Output Hike Decision Despite Hormuz Disruptions

The forthcoming meeting of seven members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, slated for Sunday, is expected to see another increase in output quotas, but the decision will remain largely on paper until the Strait of Hormuz conundrum is solved, analysts told.Nader Itayim, Middle East Gulf editor at Argus Media, said in an email that he expects the outcome of the meeting to be largely similar to that of April and March, a "theoretical" increase in output quotas, which was unlikely to have any physical impact.He attributed this to the sharp drop in production across most OPEC+ members over the past two months since the conflict began, leaving output "well below quota" with the hike for April still not materializing.Yet, he expects another hike in production, because the purpose of these meetings "is planning for the future, rather than impacting current supply."He expects the increase to come in below last month's 206,000 barrels per day, largely due to the UAE's exit from the group earlier this week, which accounted for less than 10% of this figure, or under 20,000 barrels per day. Keeping with the same formula, he expects a hike of 188,000 barrels per day from the upcoming meeting.Neil Crosby, the Head of Research at Sparta Commodities, held a similar view, noting that the UAE's exit would be "a drop in the bucket" relative to the broader OPEC+ output.Even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, he said that the Gulf nation's decision to quit the group "is more of a medium-term supply story" at best, which too will not be a concern with countries across the globe refilling their inventories that were depleted during the war.

Oil & Energy144d ago

Chevron Reports Record US Output Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions

Chevron (CVX) reported a surge in production for the first quarter of 2026 on Friday even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East begin to weigh on international operations.The company's US production exceeded 2 million oil-equivalent barrels per day for the third consecutive quarter.The year-over-year production increase was largely attributed to the integration of Hess Corporation and continued momentum in the Permian Basin and the Gulf of Mexico.These gains helped offset significant operational headwinds, including downtime at the 50 percent owned Tengizchevroil (TCO) affiliate and production curtailments in Israel and the Partitioned Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait."We continue to closely monitor developments in the Middle East with a focus on the safety of our workforce and the integrity of our assets and operations," said Mike Wirth, Chevron's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, acknowledging the regional volatility that has impacted the company's footprint.Chevron's US upstream segment saw earnings rise, supported by a net oil-equivalent production increase of 388,000 barrels per day compared to the previous year.In contrast, international upstream earnings were lower than year-ago levels.Despite a volume boost of 117,000 barrels per day from the Hess acquisition, the segment was hampered by unfavorable foreign currency effects, higher depreciation costs, and the production dip at TCO.The company's refining sector hit major milestones this quarter, with US refinery crude unit throughput maintaining levels over 1 million barrels per day for the fifth straight quarter, reaching an all-time record in March 2026.In the US downstream segment earnings improved primarily due to higher refined product margins, though a higher litigation reserve capped the gains, Chevron noted.The international downstream segment faced challenges, with earnings falling due to lower margins, unfavorable timing effects, and rising transportation costs, the company said.

$CVX

Oil & Energy144d ago

Asean Ministers Warn Prolonged Hormuz Disruption Fueling Inflationary Pressures

Asean economic ministers issued a warning in a joint statement on Friday that the prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying volatility across global energy markets, raising risks for oil and liquefied natural gas supply flows into Asia, while fueling broader inflationary pressures.The Asean Economic Community Council noted that these disruptions pose "severe risks to global energy security, fuelling persistent volatility in oil and LNG prices, and sharply increasing freight, insurance, and logistics costs."While highlighting that 80% of the flows that moved through the Hormuz were destined for Asian markets, the ministers said that the cost of living was rising across the board, while impacting the livelihoods of millions, especially vulnerable and lower-income households.The bloc also noted a proposal from the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia, a Jakarta-based think tank, to conduct a study on joint regional oil stockpiling to better deal with such disruptions in the future.

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Oil & Energy143d ago