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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop; US-Iran Deadlock Continues, Prolonging Hormuz Closure

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-- European natural gas futures were down slightly on Friday, as the logjam in the Middle East conflict continued, with neither side willing to concede, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut for over two months.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract was down 0.25% to 45.86 euros ($53.90) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP contract was down 0.10% to 112.77 British pence ($1.54) per therm. Both Dutch TTF and UK Gas were up for the week, by 3.06% and 2.37%, respectively, according to data from Trading Economics.

This comes as the standoff continues between the US and Iran, with White House spokesperson Anna Kelly saying earlier this week that talks with Tehran remain ongoing, but Washington will "not be rushed into making a bad deal," according to Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, the US Central Command is reportedly preparing a "short and powerful" wave of strikes against Iran, aimed at breaking the current deadlock, according to an Axios report, citing sources familiar with the matter.

While US President Donald Trump has said that there can be no deal with Iran until the country agrees to a nuclear deal, Tehran has vowed to protect its nuclear program, leading to a protracted standoff, according to Trading Economics.

The situation is critical for Europe, as the region begins refilling its gas inventories from depleted levels, currently at 32.49% of capacity, compared to 39.22% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said that the only "saving grace" for the region is that these disruptions have come during "the quiet shoulder season," when heating gas demand plummets.

Hynes also noted that China's LNG imports have been 30% lower compared to the same period last year, which further helped keep prices relatively in check despite the two-month-long disruption.

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