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US Equity Markets End Lower After Government Bond Yields Rise, Fed's Policy Statement

US equity indexes were lower on Wednesday as government bond yields rose and the Federal Reserve announcement excluded any language hinting at near-term rate cuts.* "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East," the Fed statement said. "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little."* Iran accused Israel of violating the truce in Lebanon 84 times since it reached the interim agreement with the US and warned of a "harsh response" if attacks continue, Al Jazeera reported.* July West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell $0.10 to settle at $75.95 per barrel, while August Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen down $0.08 at $78.87.* Moderna (MRNA) plans to invest in production sites in Germany and is interested in the plants that BioNTech (BNTX) has slated for closure, according to a Google translation of a Wednesday report from German news outlet Handelsblatt. Moderna shares were up roughly 12%, the top gainer on the S&P 500, and BioNTech stock was up about 2.9%.* Carvana (CVNA) shares were down nearly 10%, the worst performer on the S&P 500, after competitor CarMax's (KMX) fiscal Q1 earnings fell year over year on Wednesday as comparable used vehicle sales swung negative and its management flagged higher margin pressure in the near term.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BNTX$CVNA$KMX$MRNA

International6d ago

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for June 17

Retail sales rose by 0.9% in May and were up 0.8% excluding a 1.2% gain in auto sales, both above expectations.A 3.4% surge in gasoline station sales was a key factor, as well as gains at miscellaneous store retailers and nonstore retailers, partially offset by declines at department stores and nonstore retailers.Control group retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles, gas, building materials, and food services, rose by 0.8% after a 0.4% gain in April.The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index jumped by 3.8% in May, above expectations for a 0.9% increase. NAR said that the increase is a sign of pent-up demand, even as mortgage rates remain elevated, adding that more supply of homes is needed. Pending sales were up 4.8% from a year earlier.Business inventories rose by 0.5% in April after a 1% gain in March. Business sales increased by 1.2% after a 2.2% gain, with increases at the factory, retail and wholesale levels.The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 3.8% decrease in mortgage applications in the week ended June 12 after an 10.8% increase in the previous week. Refinancing activity and new home applications both declined while the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was unchanged.Total crude oil inventories fell by 17.2 million barrels in the week ended June 12, with commercial oil inventories down 8.3 million barrels and stocks in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 8.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories declined, while distillate inventories increased.The Q2 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.0% gain, up from the previous estimate of a 2.8% gain.

International6d ago

Fed Chair Warsh Starts Term by Establishing Task Forces to Look at Multiple Monetary Policy Aspects

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced Wednesday at a press conference that he is creating task forces to look at a variety of topics related to monetary policy."I'm appointing a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy -- first, Fed communications," Warsh said. "Second, the Fed's balance sheet. Third, our use and reliance on existing data sources. Fourth, productivity and jobs in an era of transformation. And last, the Fed's inflation frameworks."However, Warsh said that the Fed's 2% inflation goal is currently not under consideration for a change."I see no reason, until we have reestablished our commitment and ability to deliver on the 2% inflation objective, to revisit that," Warsh said. "So that'll be outside the scope of what we're taking on."Warsh made his comments after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the FOMC trimmed the size of its policy statement while holding its federal funds rate steady, removing forward guidance on rate moves.The updated Summary of Economic Projections shows a shift toward rate hikes due to sharply higher inflation expectations. Nine participants expected higher rates by the end of the year, eight see no change and one sees lower rates.Warsh has been an opponent of forward guidance and said that the current level of uncertainty makes it even less useful. As a result, Warsh said that he did not submit any forecasts for the SEP.He repeated the FOMC's language that the FOMC remains committed to delivering the price stability and acknowledging the current level of inflation is above the 2% target in part due to supply shocks from the conflict in the Middle East.

International6d ago

FOMC Holds Rates Steady, Drastically Lifts Rate, Inflation Forecasts

The Federal Open Market Committee was much briefer in its post-meeting statement on Wednesday than in past meetings, removing the easing bias in its statement while raising its rate outlook and inflation forecasts in first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.As expected, the FOMC maintained the target rate for its federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.An update to the Summary of Economic Projections now shows a 3.8% median federal funds rate at the end of 2026, suggesting one rate increase as opposed to one rate reduction in the previous SEP in March.There was a split between nine participants seeing at least one rate increase this year and eight seeing no change. One participant is still expecting a rate increase.The inflation rate is now seen at 3.6% at the end of 2026, up from 2.7% previously, with core inflation now expected at 3.3%, up from 2.7%.The unemployment rate is seen at 4.3% the end of the year, compared with the 4.4% rate in the March SEP, but GDP growth expectations were revised lower.The SEP update also shows a higher end-of-year federal funds rate for 2027 at 3.6%, up from 3.1% previously but below the end-of-2026 rate, and a 3.4% rate at the end of 2027.Fed Chair Warsh is due to hold a press conference at 2:30 pm ET.

International6d ago

Fed Chair Warsh Says He Did Not Submit Projections for SEP

International6d ago

FOMC SEP Shows Drastically Higher Inflation Forecasts for 2026, Lower Growth, Unemployment Forecasts

International6d ago

FOMC SEP Now Shows 3.4% End-of-2028 Fed Funds Rate Vs. 3.1% Previously Reported

International6d ago

FOMC SEP Now Shows 3.6% End-of-2027 Fed Funds Rate Vs. 3.1% Previously Reported

International6d ago

FOMC SEP Now Shows 3.8% End-of-2026 Fed Funds Rate Vs. 3.4% Previously Reported

International6d ago

FOMC Holds Federal Funds Rate Steady at Range of 3.50% to 3.75%

International6d ago

Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate 3.0% Gain Vs. Previous 2.8% Gain

International6d ago

April US Business Inventories, Business Sales Rise

Business inventories increased 0.5% in April, as expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following a 1.0% increase in the previous month.Retail inventories were up 0.7%, same as the advance estimate, while wholesale inventories rose by 0.6% and factory inventories increased by 0.3%.Business sales rose by 1.2% in April, with retail trade sales up 0.3% after revision. Wholesale sales increased by 2% and factory shipments were up 1%.

International6d ago

April US Business Inventories Rise 0.5% Vs 0.5% Gain Expected, Prior 1.0% Gain

International6d ago

May US Pending Home Sales Index Posts Larger Gain Than Expected

Pending home sales rose by 3.8% in May, well above the 0.9% increase expected in survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET and following a 0.3% increase in April, according to the National Association of Realtors.The monthly sales index was up 4.8% from May 2025."A late spring buyer rush -- even with mortgage rates not budging -- is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers' acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal," said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun, adding that more supply is needed to slow price growth.Pending home sales rose in all four regions of the country from April and compared with a year earlier."Going forward, falling oil prices will help lower mortgage rates," Yun said. "But declines will be modest given sizable borrowing by the federal government and strong AI investment spending by tech companies."June existing-home sales data are scheduled for release on July 9.

International6d ago

May Pending Home Sales Index Rises by 3.8% Vs. 0.9% Increase Expected, Prior 0.3% Gain

International6d ago

May US Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected, Ex-Auto Sales Up

US retail sales rose by 0.9% in May, a larger gain than the 0.6% increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET and following the previous month's revised 0.4% gain.Excluding a 1.2% increase in motor vehicle sales, retail sales were still up 0.8% compared with an expected 0.6% gain. That followed a 0.7% gain in April.Removing both motor vehicles and a 3.4% gain in gasoline station sales, retail sales were up 0.5% in May, the same as in April.Sales at food services and drinking places fell 0.1% after a 0.9% gain in the previous month.There were notable gains in sales of furniture, health care, clothing, sporting goods, and at miscellaneous and nonstore retailers.Control group sales, which exclude autos, building materials, gas and food services, rose by 0.8% after a 0.4% gain in the previous month.The monthly retail sales report from the US Commerce Department measures spending on retail products and food, the largest portion of economic growth. The report covers spending on goods with a services report released later each month.Investors watch the control group that excludes food services, autos, gasoline and building materials because it feeds directly into the GDP report measuring economic growth.If the data shows a strong US economy, that's generally bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds.

International6d ago

May US Retail Sales Ex Auto, Gas Rise 0.5% Vs. Expected 0.3% Gain, Prior 0.5% Gain

International6d ago

May US Retail Sales Ex Auto Rise 0.8% Vs. Expected 0.6% Gain, Prior 0.7% Gain

International6d ago

May US Retail Sales Rise 0.9% Vs. Expected 0.6% Gain, Prior 0.4% Gain

International6d ago

Easing Interest Rates, Steady Crude Prices Undergird European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked moderately higher midday Wednesday as traders weighed mildly easing interest rates and steady oil prices, while awaiting clarity on the pending Washington-Tehran peace agreement.Tech and bank stocks led gains on continental trading floors, while oil and property shares lagged.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were lower, near 2.93%.Investors also eyed Wall Street futures in the green, and higher closes overnight on Asian exchanges, including a fresh all-time zenith on Tokyo's Nikkei 225.In corporate news, BMW shares traded down 6.3% in Frankfurt after the German automaker issued a profit warning, citing soft demand in China and pressure from Persian Gulf hostilities.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 0.4% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was up 1.2%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index gained 1.1%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index eased 0.3%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index inclined 0.2%.The REITE, a European REIT index, fell 0.2%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was up 0.1%, and the FTSE 100 in London lost 0.1%. The CAC 40 in Paris was up 0.4%, and Spain's IBEX 35 lifted 0.6%.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were up 0.5% to $79.38 a barrel.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was down 1.6% at 15.85, indicating below-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a positive signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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