International
Asia Week Ahead: Inflation; Trade Data; and Central Bank Decisions
The week ahead in Asia is packed with releases covering trade, inflation, and central bank updates which could offer markets fresh clues on how the region is navigating the conflict in the Middle East.Monday begins with trade data from New Zealand and Malaysia, as well as the release of China's loan prime rates.Attention then turns Tuesday to New Zealand's first-quarter inflation report, followed by Bank Indonesia's interest rate decision and Japan's March trade figures on Wednesday.Thursday brings another key central bank decision from the Philippines, as well as first-quarter GDP data from South Korea. Flash PMI reports from India, Japan and Australia will also be closely watched.Friday rounds off the week with Japan's March inflation data, as well as Thailand's trade report.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 20The week kicked off with the release of trade data from New Zealand and Malaysia.New Zealand recorded a goods trade surplus of NZ$698 million in March, compared with a deficit of NZ$364.7 million in February.Goods exports rose 7.3% to NZ$7.94 billion, while imports rose 9.6% to NZ$7.25 billion.Malaysia's total trade in goods rose 9.3% annually to 273 billion ringgit in March, driven by growth in both exports and imports.Exports increased 8.3% year on year to 148.8 billion ringgit, while imports rose 10.4% to 124.2 billion ringgit.China kept its loan prime rate or LPR, which is the benchmark for new loans, unchanged after posting a better-than-expected economy amid the Middle East conflict.The People's Bank of China held the one-year LPR at 3% and the LPR of five years or more at 3.5%.Economists at ING said the central bank may keep the rates on hold until conditions warrant monetary policy support. The People's Bank of China has maintained the one-year and five-year LPR since May 2025.TUESDAY, April 21New Zealand is due to report its first quarter inflation data.The country's consumer price index is anticipated to rise by 0.8% quarter on quarter and 2.9% year on year, BofA Securities estimated, slightly below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's revised April forecast of 3%.Headline inflation is driven by soaring fuel prices in March due to the Middle East conflict, with petrol prices surging nearly 19% and diesel by nearly 43% month on month, according to the firm's research.Taiwan will release its export orders data. According to ING, the city state could see a rebound in orders to around 48.1% year on year from 23.8% previously.WEDNESDAY, April 22Indonesia's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision.ING said it expects Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate at 4.75% despite inflation running above the central bank's 2.5% target. At 3.5%, inflation is still well below the roughly 5% peak in 2022 that triggered aggressive rate hikes, and with growth softening, the central bank is likely to remain on hold, according to ING.Japan's March trade figures will also be in the news. ING said it expects strong Japanese export growth in March thanks to demand for semiconductors and IT products, pushing the country's trade surplus to 1 trillion yen from 44.3 billion yen in the month prior.Elsewhere, South Korea reports producer price inflation data for March.THURSDAY, April 23Another interest rate decision, this time in the Philippines.The island nation's economy is one of the most susceptible to oil shocks in the region, and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' upcoming decision is "likely to be close" amid the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East, ING said in a preview.Still, the firm said its base case is for the central bank to maintain rates at 4.25%.South Korea's advance estimates for GDP growth for the first quarter will also capture headlines.Most analysts expect a rebound in growth after the economy contracted in the previous quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported.Barclays economist Bumki Son said the economy is likely to show a growth of 1.2% on a quarterly basis and 3% on a yearly basis thanks to stronger exports and a recovery in private consumption and facility investment, the WSJ reported.A consumer confidence report is also due in South Korea.Hong Kong and Singapore will announce Inflation data for March.Singapore's March print will capture the initial impact of the energy shock from the Middle East conflict, the WSJ reported, citing DBS economists. According to Trading Economics, the rate of price increase could quick to 1.5% year on year from the 1.2% witnessed in February.In Hong Kong, Trading Economics expects inflation to rise marginally to 1.8% on the year from the 1.7% recorded in February.Hong Kong will also release unemployment data the same day.A number of macro releases are expected in Taiwan, covering March retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment.Similar to its export orders, ING said it expects Taiwan's industrial production to rebound to 25.7% year on year from the 17.8% growth recorded in the month prior.On the activity front, S&P Global releases its flash PMI reports covering manufacturing, services, and composite activity in India, Japan, and Australia.FRIDAY, April 24Markets will await March inflation data from Japan.Core inflation, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, is expected to cool to a rate of 1.8% year on year from the 2% witnessed in February, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.According to ING, efforts by Japan's government to stabilize gasoline prices should keep both headline and core inflation rates below 2%.March inflation data will also be due in Macao, which also reports unemployment rate the same day.Trading Economics estimates that March inflation could clock in at 1.2% year on year, modestly higher than the 1.16% witnessed in February.Unemployment, meanwhile, is expected to rise to 1.8% from 1.7% in the month prior, Trading Economics estimated.In Thailand, trade figures for March will be due.Trading Economics expects the country the post a trade deficit of $2 billion for the month, a reversal from the $2 billion surplus in February.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence in the first quarter will be due in the Philippines.A business confidence report covering the second quarter will similarly be made available in Hong Kong.
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