The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Monday -- up versus pound and Canadian dollar, down versus the euro and yen -- ahead of a busy week of events, highlighted by the Federal Open Market Committee meeting announcement on Wednesday and the first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday.
The CME Fed Watch Tool currently shows a 64.2% chance of no change to the 3.50% to 3.75% target range for the federal funds rate being priced in and a 35.8% chance of a 25-basis point rate increase.
Monday's schedule includes durable goods orders data for June at 8:30 am ET, the Dallas Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for July at 10:30 am ET, and an update to the Atlanta Fed's GDP nowcast estimate around midday.
Tuesday's busy schedule will be highlighted by advance trade data for June, home price data for May and consumer confidence data for July.
Weekly mortgage applications and oil stocks will be released Wednesday before the FOMC's rate announcement.
In addition to the GDP data, weekly jobless claims and natural gas stocks and personal income, spending and price data for June are due to be released on Thursday.
Employment cost data for Q2, the Chicago PMI for July and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for July are scheduled to be released on Friday.
A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:
EUR/USD rose to 1.1393 from 1.1371 at the Friday US close but was below a level of 1.1406 at the same time Friday morning. Eurozone money supply rose at a faster pace in June than in the previous month. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for September 10.
GBP/USD fell to 1.3313 from 1.3322 at the Friday US close and 1.3327 at the same time Friday morning. UK retail conditions improved in July but remained negative, according to data released earlier Monday. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Thursday, when no change in the policy rate is expected.
USD/JPY fell to 163.6244 from 163.8488 at the Friday US close but was above a level of 163.4220 at the same time Friday morning. The Japanese leading index increased in May, according to data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Thursday, when no change in the policy rate is expected.
USD/CAD rose to 1.4104 from 1.4101 at the Friday US close and 1.4085 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Canadian data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Sept. 2.