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UK's Monthly Retail Sales Rise 0.5% in August

Britain's monthly retail sales climbed 0.5% in August after a 0.5% decline in July, according to data from the Office for National Statistics published Friday.Analysts expected a 0.2% dip for the month.On a yearly basis, UK retail sales rose 2.4%, against the revised 1.2% rise previously and the expected 1.9% growth.Excluding automotive fuel, retail sales rose 0.6% month over month and 2.7% annually, following a 0.9% decrease and a revised 1.8% increase earlier, respectively. The figures compare with the consensus estimates of a 0.2% monthly decline and a 1.9% yearly gain.

FTSE 100

Malaysia's Trade Surplus Rises in August

Malaysia's trade surplus increased to 28.1 billion ringgit in August from 22.5 billion ringgit in the previous month, according to data from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) released Friday.The trade surplus beat the forecast of 25.3 billion ringgit, tracked by Investing.comExports surged 45.5% year-over-year to 191 billion ringgit, beating the 38% growth forecast and accelerating from the 38% rise in July.Imports rose 41.1% to 163 billion ringgit, beating the 33.3% forecast and faster than the 36.4% growth in the previous month.

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Bank of Japan Hikes Interest Rate to 31-Year High

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark policy rate to a 31-year high of 1.25% from 1.0% at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Friday.The decision, approved by a 7-2 vote, was in line with market expectations and marked the second rate hike for the central bank this year.The BOJ last raised its benchmark policy rate to 1.0% from 0.75% in June.The central bank said Japan's economy is recovering moderately, although some weakness remains due geopolitical uncertainties acting as risks to the outlook.The economy is expected to continue growing moderately, driven by rising global AI-related demand and various government measures, the BOJ said.Rising crude oil prices and the depreciation of the yen have pushed medium- to long-term inflation expectations higher, bringing the underlying rate of consumer price inflation closer to the BOJ's 2% target.

Nikkei 225

Korea's Auto Exports Plunge in August on Fewer Working Days, Strikes

Korea's automobile exports fell nearly 30% year over year to $3.85 billion in August, hit by fewer working days from the summer holiday shift and strike-related production disruptions, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources (MOTIR).Declines were recorded across all major markets, with North America down over 28%, the EU falling nearly 17%, Asia tumbling 42%, and the Middle East slid 24%, while export volume dropped 27% to 146,000 units.Domestic sales and production fell 21% and 36%, respectively, to 110,000 and 206,000 units, though eco-friendly vehicle sales reached 69,000 units, or 63% of the domestic market.With wage negotiations now concluded at all major automakers, the ministry expects the shortfall to be made up and exports and production to gradually recover.

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South Korea Extends Fuel Tax Cuts Through November to Ease Public Burden

South Korea will extend its fuel tax cut scheme by another two months through November to ease price burdens on the public amid protracted tensions in the Middle East, according to the Ministry of Finance and Economy statement on Thursday.The ministry said the decision was made during an economy-related ministers' meeting chaired by Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol, taking into careful consideration the recent international oil price situation and the burden on the public.The current reductions, including 15% for gasoline and 25% for diesel and butane, were scheduled to end in September, and the 10th oil peak price to be applied will be announced at 6 p.m. on Thursday.During the Chuseok holiday period from Sept. 24 to 27, highway gas station fuel prices will be lowered by 100 won per litre compared to Sept. 17, with electric vehicle charging fees discounted during daytime hours.

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IMF Backs Further RBA Rate Hikes as Inflation Persists, CBA Says

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) backed further interest-rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as persistent inflation pressures and higher energy costs threaten to keep inflation elevated, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) said in a Thursday note.The IMF warned that rising global energy prices could fuel inflation expectations, urging central banks to consider rate cuts only if growth weakens significantly and inflation is clearly under control, per the report.It also called for more ambitious productivity reforms, including stronger competition, reduced regulation, greater infrastructure investment and tax changes such as replacing stamp duty with land tax.On housing, the fund welcomed government measures including changes to property investor tax incentives and increased support for build-to-rent, social and affordable housing.The IMF said Australia's artificial intelligence and data-center boom could support economic growth and productivity, while warning that rising electricity demand and construction pressures could fuel inflation if renewable energy investment does not keep pace.

ASX 200ASX:CBA

Australian Central Bank Governor Says Upside Inflation Risks Have Materialized Ahead of September Meeting

Developments over the last month or so indicate that some upside risks to inflation are materializing despite slowing growth in the Australian economy, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock said Friday.Global cost pressures have increased, with little sign of a resolution of the Middle East conflict, as the artificial intelligence boom and extreme weather events exert upward pressure on a range of energy, agricultural, and technology-related prices, Bullock said in an opening statement to the House of Representatives' standing committee on economics.Oil and related prices have surged again, and many domestic firms are passing on higher input costs, as expected. If these effects become embedded into price and wage-setting decisions, inflation could prove to be more persistent and warrant "a stronger policy response," the governor said.Heading into the central bank's next monetary policy meeting later in September, a key question for board members will be whether the 75 basis points of cumulative tightening so far this year is sufficient to bring inflation back to the target range within a reasonable period of time.Bullock appeared to hint at a possible interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, saying that many other central banks are responding to the global inflation shock by raising policy rates or signaling an intent to do so if required.On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve increased its target range on the overnight funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% to 4% from 3.5% to 3.75%, with policymakers unanimously voting in favor of the Fed's first rate hike since 2023."I recognize that higher interest rates are difficult for Australians with mortgages who are also facing cost-of-living pressures," Bullock said. "But reducing inflation is essential."

ASX 200

New Zealand Selected Price Indexes Data in August Confirms Downside Risk to September Quarter CPI Forecast, ANZ Says

The selected price indexes data for New Zealand in August confirmed the downside risk to ANZ's September quarter consumer price index (CPI) forecast of 0.8% on a quarterly basis and 3.9% on an annual basis, the bank said in a note on Friday.The selected price indexes lifted 0.2% month-over-month, marginally stronger than the 0.1% forecast from the lender.However, information from the selected price indexes data is consistent with the bank's non-tradable CPI forecast of 1.1% growth quarter-over-quarter.The downside to its forecast is coming from the tradable side of the CPI basket, which is more likely to be looked through by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy committee.

Japan's Core Inflation Slows in August

Japan's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 1.7% year over year in August, according to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on Friday.The reading missed the consensus forecast of 1.8% growth tracked by Investing.com and was down from the 1.8% expansion recorded in the previous month.Meanwhile, headline inflation remained unchanged at 1.9% compared with the previous month, but was lower than the Trading Economics forecast of 2.1%.On a month-over-month basis, Japan's core CPI fell 0.1% in August following the 0.3% increase in the previous month.The seasonally adjusted month-over-month headline inflation remained flat in August from a 0.4% growth in July.

Nikkei 225

New Zealand Transport Motor Vehicle Registrations Rise Slightly in August

The number of transport motor vehicle registrations licensed in New Zealand in August stood at 4.6 million, with a slight increase compared with the same period last year, according to figures released by Stats NZ on Friday.Currently licensed transport and passenger motor vehicles across the country include nearly 3 million cars, 746,444 trucks, 628,558 trailers and caravans, 58,297 motorcycles, 31,508 omnibuses and service coaches, and 24,214 taxis.The total number of commercial vehicles in August was 3,548, down on last year's 3,879.

New Zealand International Airfares Rise in August

International airfares in New Zealand rose 4.3% in August compared with the previous month, according to a Stats NZ selected price indexes report on Friday."The monthly rise in international airfares was driven primarily by higher fares to Europe and Asia," said prices and deflators spokesperson Nicola Growden.Food prices rose 0.3% in August compared with the previous month, driven by a 1.7% increase in meat, poultry and fish prices, while non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 1.4%.Petrol and diesel prices both increased in August compared with July, rising by 2% and 8.6%, respectively.Food prices increased by 1.9% on an annual basis in August, compared with a 1.9% increase in the 12 months to July, driven by a 3.2% rise in restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices and a 1.7% increase in grocery food prices, while fruit and vegetable prices fell 1.6%.Petrol and diesel prices both increased over the 12 months to August, rising by nearly 18% and 46%, respectively.

New Zealand Posts NZ$1.3 Billion Merchandise Trade Deficit in August

New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$1.3 billion in August, according to data published Friday by Stats NZ.The result came as goods exports increased by NZ$888 million, or 15%, year over year to NZ$6.7 billion, while imports rose NZ$924 million, or 13%, to NZ$8 billion.Exports of milk powder, butter, and cheese jumped 7.6% from a year earlier to NZ$1.19 billion in August, and aluminum exports surged 58% higher to NZ$219 million.Meanwhile, mechanical machinery and equipment contributed to the higher imports with annual growth of 15% in August, with electrical machinery and equipment imports rising 25%.

South Korea's Producer Inflation Accelerates in August

Producer prices in South Korea increased 7.9% year over year in August, according to preliminary data from the Bank of Korea on Friday.The reading compared with the 7.7% expansion recorded in the previous month, but was below the Trading Economics forecast of 8.1%.The performance during the month was driven primarily by the manufacturing sector, which saw prices rise 12% from a year earlier, unchanged from the pace seen a month earlier. Within the sector, prices of coal and petroleum products surged 54.3% year over year, accelerating from the 52% growth in July.

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Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for Sept. 17

Housing starts fell by 2.6% to a 1.275 million annual rate in August, with single-family housing starts higher but multi-family starts lower.Building permits fell by 2.7% to a 1.394 million rate in August. Both single-family and multi-family permits declined. Homes permitted but not started increased by 0.7%.The number of homes under construction rose modestly in the month, but the number of completions declined, which should subtract from the supply of homes for sale in the near term. Completions are 27.1% below their year-ago level.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing reading fell to 37.8 in September from 47.4 in August, reflecting index declines in new orders, inventories and employment and an unchanged reading for shipments, offset by an increase in prices paid.Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 196,000 in the employment survey week ended Sept. 12, trimming the four-week moving average by 2,750 to 203,250, a second straight decrease.Initial claims were at a level of 207,000 in the employment survey week ended Aug. 15.Insured claims declined by 39,000 to 1.730 million in the week ended Sept. 5.Natural gas stocks rose by 44 billion cubic feet to 3.298 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 11, down 3.6% from a year earlier but 3.7% higher than the seasonal average for the current week over the previous five years.The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rose by 0.3% in August, above expectations despite an increase in mortgage rates. Pending sales were still down 4.7% from a year earlier.The NAR's existing-home sales data for September are scheduled for release on Oct. 13.The Q3 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 5.1% gain, unrevised from the previous estimate.

Bank of Canada's October Rate Decision Will Be Close, but Markets Overpricing 2027 Hikes, Capital Economics Says

The Bank of Canada is unlikely to increase rates at its October policy meeting unless September's consumer price index unexpectedly exceeds expectations or oil prices climb sharply, according to Capital Economics in a Thursday note.Although higher oil prices benefit Canada overall, market expectations of 125 basis points of hikes by the end of 2027 appear to be excessive, said Capital Economics.BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has stated that the October Monetary Policy Report, to be released with the monetary decision on Oct. 29, will inform decision-making, with inflation forecasts being a crucial factor.Although there are some indications of rising near-term inflation expectations, core inflation pressures remain subdued. As a result, Capital Economics anticipates no interest rate hike this October, but it will be a narrow call.Even if Canada's central bank hikes, the markets' pricing suggests more tightening than justified, as a 100bps increase to reach a neutral policy range appears more appropriate given current conditions, added Capital Economics."Once factoring in a longer drag on demand from uncertainty around the US-Canada trading relationship, we suspect the Bank will hike by less than that," wrote Capital Economics Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown.

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Update 2: Canada's Carney Welcomes EU Associate Membership Ambition; Parliament's Vote Needed for Alliance

(Updates with further Carney comments in the fifth and sixth paragraphs.)Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada welcomes the ambition to become the European Union's first associate member as the country seeks to strengthen its ties with the 27-nation bloc amid growing tensions with the United States.Carney, speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Thursday, said that closer relations with the EU would involve cooperation in areas such as critical minerals, defense, artificial intelligence, energy, financial services, and cultural exchanges like university programs."Canada welcomes this ambition" to become the EU's first associate member, Carney told EU lawmakers in Strasbourg. This opportunity of "an alliance for the future is unique."This stronger partnership "is about sovereignty" as Canada and the EU "are stronger together," added Carney.At a subsequent press conference later Thursday with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, Carney said Canada isn't looking to be a full EU member, with the two sides working on a "different framework," adding the "nomenclature" to be used is up to the EU.Any deal reached between Canada and the EU will need to be debated and voted on in the Canadian parliament. "There's no doubt" about that, Carney told reporters.On Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced her desire for Canada to become the EU's first associate member.Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that he "will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe" if the EU proposal to make Canada an associate member is intended as "a hostile act."Trump defined the EU plan for Canada as "laughable" in comments broadcast on news outlets.EC President von der Leyen stressed Wednesday that the associate membership offer wasn't intended as a measure against other countries.

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Atlanta Fed US Q3 GDP Nowcast Estimate Unrevised from Previous 5.1% Gain

August US Pending Home Sales Index Posts Unexpected Increase

Pending home sales rose by 0.3% in August, compared with the 0.1% decrease expected in survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET and following a 2.6% decrease in July, according to the National Association of Realtors.The monthly sales index was down 4.7% from August 2025.Pending home sales declined in the Northeast and Midwest regions from July but rose in the South and West regions. It declined in all four regions compared with a year earlier."Buyers steadily entered into contracts in August even though mortgage rates increased," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. "However, the housing market is still sluggish, with contract signings below last year. This is due to higher mortgage rates offsetting the increased buying power created by job gains and income growth outpacing home price growth."September existing-home sales data are scheduled for release on Oct. 13.