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US Dollar Rises Early Monday, Focus This Week on April CPI, Retail Sales

The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Monday, except for a decline versus the Canadian dollar, with the focus this week on consumer price and retail sales data for April.Monday's schedule is light, with only existing home sales data for April at 10:00 am ET.April consumer price data are the highlight on Tuesday. Small business sentiment for April, the monthly Treasury budget for April, and weekly Redbook same-store sales are also due to be released.Producer price data for April and weekly mortgage applications and crude oil stocks data are due to be released on Wednesday.Thursday's busy data schedule includes weekly jobless claims, retail sales and import prices for April, business inventories for March, and weekly natural gas stocks.The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index for May and industrial production data for April are scheduled to be released on Friday.A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:EUR/USD fell to 1.1773 from 1.1781 at the Friday US close, but was above a level of 1.1764 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Monday's schedule. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for June 11.GBP/USD fell to 1.3608 from 1.3629 at the Friday US close, but was above a level of 1.3604 at the same time Friday morning. There are no UK data on Monday's schedule, but Bank of England Governor Sam Woods is due to speak at 10:40 am ET. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for June 18.USD/JPY rose to 157.1042 from 156.7288 at the Friday US close and 156.7758 at the same time Friday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for June 15-16.USD/CAD fell to 1.3664 from 1.3681 at the Friday US close, but was above a level of 1.3647 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Canadian data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for June 10.

$EUR/USD$GBP/USD$USD/CAD$USD/JPY

International135d ago

Higher Oil Prices Weigh on Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia Mixed, Europe Off

Wall Street futures pointed marginally lower pre-bell Monday, as crude prices rose following President Donald Trump's rejection Sunday of a peace proposal from Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to sea traffic.In the futures, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Nasdaq declined 0.1% and the Dow Jones was flat.Investors also await key economic releases this week from Washington, including the consumer price index (CPI) bulletin for April on Tuesday, the producer price index (PPI) report for April on Wednesday, and the April retail sales release on Thursday.West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded up 2.6% at $97.94 in morning action.Constellation Energy (CEG) is scheduled to release earnings per-bell.Blue-chips Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Brookfield (BN), Oklo (OKLO), and Nebius (NBIS) are slated to report earnings later this week, among others.Asian exchanges traded unevenly overnight, although Seoul's KOSPI index gained 4.3% to strike a fresh all-time high on AI-sector optimism. European bourses edged lower midday on the continent.On the economic calendar is the existing home sales report for April, at 10 am ET.In pre-market action, bitcoin traded at $81,069, and 10-year US Treasuries offered 4.39%. Spot gold commanded $4,665 an ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500

International135d ago

Wall Street Cues, Oil, Geopolitics Roil Asian Stock Marlets

Asian stock markets largely churned Monday, as traders weighed AI-sector optimism but rising crude prices, and mulled US President Donald Trump's rejection on Sunday of an Iranian peace proposal.Brent crude rose to $103.88 a barrel, up 2.6%, during Asian trading hours.Hong Kong and Shanghai finished in the green, while Tokyo lagged. Another fresh zenith was set on Seoul's KOSPI index, which gained 4.3% after Wall Street-listed tech-sector peer issues rose on Friday. Other regional exchanges were mixed.In Japan, the Nikkei 225 opened higher on AI-sector optimism, but sagged and closed down 0.5% as rising crude prices undercut optimism.The benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 295.77 to 62,417.88, although gaining issues outnumbered losers 131 to 89.Leading the upside was video-game maker Konami, up 10.3%, while Nintendo declined 8.4%, with both moves following earnings releases.In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index opened lower but edged into the green, up 0.1% as traders monitored Middle East turmoil, but better-than-expected trade reports from Beijing.The broad gauge Hang Seng rose 13.13 to 26,406.84, as gaining issues outnumbered losers 51 to 32. The Hang Seng TECH Index gained 0.1% on the day, while the Mainland Properties Index rose 1.3%.Leading the upside was property-developer Longfor, gaining 8.4%, while New Oriental Education & Technology declined 5%.On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.1% to 4,225.02.In economic news, China consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 1.2% on year, while the producer price index (PPI), pushed by crude prices, rose 2.8% in the same time period, reported the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).On the trade scene, China's exports in April grew 14.1% on year to $359.4 billion, while imports grew by 15.3% to $274.6 billion, reported China's Customs Administration.On the other regional exchanges, the Taiwan TWSE inclined 0.5%; the Australian ASX 200 declined 0.5%; the Singapore Straits Times Index rose 0.4%, and the Thai Set declined 0.7%. In late trading in Mumbai, the Sensex was down 1.7%The MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4% on the day.

Hang SengNikkei 225Shanghai Composite

International135d ago

Market Chatter: China's Gold Consumption Up 4.4% in Q1

China's gold consumption grew 4.4% year over year to 303.3 tonnes in the first quarter, Xinhua News Agency reported Saturday, citing the China Gold Association.Gold bar and coin consumption jumped 46% to 202.1 tonnes, while gold jewelry consumption fell 37% to 84.6 tonnes, the report said.Gold exchange-traded funds added 50.4 tonnes in the first three months of the year, with total ETF holdings reaching 298.3 tonnes as of the end of March.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

International135d ago

China Shipbuilding Output Rises 46% in Q1

The Chinese shipbuilding sector's output grew 46% year over year to about 15.7 million deadweight tonnes in the first quarter, Xinhua News Agency reported Saturday, citing the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.The figure comprised 57% of the global total, the report said.New orders soared 195% to 59.5 million DWT, equivalent to about 85% of the global market share.Holding orders increased 44% to 322.3 million DWT, equivalent to about 70% of the worldwide total.

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

International135d ago

Market Chatter: China Auto Sales Slump for Seventh Month in April, But Exports Surge

China's domestic car sales fell for a seventh consecutive month in April, dropping 22% year on year to 1.4 million vehicles, Reuters reported Monday, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association.The CPCA said combustion engine cars underperformed due to high oil prices, while plug-in hybrid demand also remained sluggish, according to the report.Sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, which made up 61% of total sales, declined 6.8%,. This marked a fourth straight month of losses, Reuters wrote.EV and plug-in hybrid exports jumped 112% from a year earlier, exceeding the 80% rise in overall car exports, according to the report. Global fuel price spikes, driven by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, boosted overseas EV demand.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

International135d ago

French Foreign Exchange Reserves Decrease in April

France's foreign exchange reserves fell to 386.90 billion euros in April from 390.63 billion euros in March, according to government data published Monday.The total amount consisted of 310.09 billion euros in gold reserves and 31.65 billion euros in foreign currency reserves, along with 38.68 billion euros in claims on the International Monetary Fund and 6.47 billion euros in other reserve assets.

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International135d ago

Australian Wages Rises 0.8% in Three Months to April, Commonwealth Bank Says

Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Wage Insights series showed wages increased 0.8% in the three months to April, with annual growth remaining steady at 3.1%, the bank said in a Monday report.The series is based on de-identified salary data from around 400,000 Commonwealth Bank accounts.The CommBank Labor Insights series shows employment growth remains stable, with an estimated 23,000 jobs added in April, the same as March.The lender's economist, Harry Ottley, said the effects of rising interest rates or the Middle East conflict were yet to flow through to its wages growth data and that wages growth typically lags labor market and economic conditions."The trend unemployment rate has held at 4.3% since July 2025," Ottley added.South Australia recorded the fastest pace of wage growth at 3.7%, responding to outperformance in the broader economy, with the unemployment rate the lowest in the country and economic growth the strongest. Western Australia maintained its equal highest wages growth ranking in April, with wages growth of 3.7%, decreasing slightly from March.Wage growth in the Northern Territory, New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland came in at 3.5%, 3.2%, 3%, and 3.3%, respectively. Tasmania reported the slowest wage growth at 2.8%.

ASX 200

International135d ago

Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Edges Higher in April

Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index stood at 123 in April, up from 122.9 in the previous month, remaining in optimistic territory, according to the latest Consumer Survey released by Bank Indonesia.Bank Indonesia said consumer confidence remained strong, supported mainly by improved perceptions of current economic conditions.The Current Economic Conditions Index rose to 116.5 from 115.4 in March, while the Consumer Expectations Index stood at 129.6, slightly lower than 130.4 in the previous month, the central bank said.

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International135d ago

New Zealand Food Supermarkets' Supplier Costs Rise in April With Further Increase Expected, Infometrics Says

Supplier costs for food supermarkets in New Zealand rose 2% on average in April from a year earlier, marking a continued slowdown in the pace of increases from recent months, Infometrics said in a Monday report.However, Infometrics Chief Executive and Principal Economist Brad Olsen cautioned that the slower readings "still largely pre-date rising costs stemming from conflict in the Middle East, with only some limited increases for produce showing through so far."The economic consultancy firm expects additional impact from the conflict to become evident in the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index over the next few months."Fuel costs are set to influence costs first, followed by wider pressures from plastics and packaging costs, with further operating cost rises, like for fertilizer, showing through over time," Olsen said.Supplier costs ticked higher across all departments in April compared with the previous year, including a continued rise in protein costs and a nearly 5% increase in average seafood supplier costs, alongside notable increases for broccoli, kumara, and capsicums, according to the report.

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International135d ago

Westpac Expects Slower Normalization to Strait of Hormuz Shipping Flows

Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz are now expected to reach around 10% to 15% of pre-conflict levels through June, with a return to normal flows unlikely to materialize until mid-2027, Westpac said in a market outlook report published May 8.That compares with a previous forecast published in March for flows to hit around 20% of pre-conflict levels in May and June before recovering to normal by the close of this year."Our assumption of a more sustained period of disruption to shipping through the Strait means it will take longer for smaller Gulf producers, including Kuwait, that have faced some production 'shut ins' due to storage capacity constraints, to return to normal," the bank said.Due to continued uncertainty over a resolution to the conflict, global monetary and fiscal arms are incorporating higher inflation, lower growth, and weaker labor markets into baseline forecasts. Central banks are navigating the crisis with extreme caution and finding it increasingly difficult to balance inflation and growth risks, according to the report.Westpac said it continues to expect two additional rate hikes from the Australian central bank this year, but with a slightly later timing in August and September.The bank also expects a rate hike in New Zealand in September as higher fuel prices will result in a sharp lift to consumer price index inflation over the coming months.

ASX 200^NZ50

International136d ago

Saudi's Annual Industrial Production Falls 14.1% in March

Saudi Arabia's industrial production index declined 14.1% year over year in March, following a revised 15% growth in February, the kingdom's General Authority for Statistics said Sunday.The increase was mainly driven by a decrease in mining and quarrying activity, as well as manufacturing activity. However the sub-index of water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities rose 1.1% during the reporting month.On a monthly basis, the index dropped 22.3%.

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International137d ago

USD/CAD Likely To Remain "Trapped" In a Range-bound Environment In Coming Months, RBC Says

USD/CAD is likely to remain "trapped" in a range-bound environment in the coming months, with the pair seen trading between 1.3500 and 1.3900, RBC Capital Markets said in its latest FX View note.RBC added its end-of-second-quarter forecast for USD/CAD stands at 1.3700.The bank said Friday's Canadian and U.S. employment reports point to both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve holding interest rates for now.Although, RBC noted, the Canadian employment series tends to be volatile, it said the latest print "pours some cold water on the possibility of a BoC rate hike in the short-term."Meanwhile, RBC said the "stabilizing" U.S. labour market further diminishes the risk of a near-term dovish Federal Reserve pivot, particularly as attention shifts to potential secondary-round inflation effects.RBC noted the outlook is also unfolding against the backdrop of the ongoing Iran conflict, "for which the path is uncertain.""As long as the USD is not experiencing a sustainable broad-based rally, this morning's Canadian data reinforce CAD's underperformance vs its commodity/higher yielding peers in the past month," the bank said.On technicals, RBC said last week's close below 1.3598 "reasserted the downtrend," suggesting that rallies are viewed as a selling opportunity. The bank noted USD/CAD was hovering around trendline resistance at 1.3674, with 1.3728 seen as the next resistance level. "If USD/CAD closes above the latter, then the risk is additional gains towards 1.3799 and 1.3856," RBC added.Support levels are seen at 1.3526 and 1.3482, according to the bank.

$CXY$CAD$USD

International137d ago

Job Reports Not Enough To Take USD-CAD Out Of Its Range Bound Environment, RBC says

A softer Canadian jobs report today saw the unemployment rate up to 6.9% and resulted in a rates rally and curve steepening, RBC Capital Markets said in its latest CAD Weekly Soundbites note. But, the bank added, when that report is combined with the US labor report, that beat forecasts, it wasn't enough to take USD/CAD out of its range-bound environment.Canadian data also reinforced the Canadian dollar's underperformance versus its G10 commodity and higher-yielding peers over the past month, RBC said.On the Canadian economy, RBC noted the April jobs report showed a 0.2 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, with weakness evident in goods sectors, trade and transport/warehousing, though private-paid employment and total hours worked were little changed in the month.Looking ahead, RBC said next week will not feature key Canadian data releases, although there will be a number of second-tier reports including housing market data, wholesale trade on Thursday and manufacturing sales on Friday. "The softening labour market YTD has not translated to the product market, where Q1 GDP is tracking above-potential including the March nowcast," it added.The bank added that investors will also watch inflation data in Norway, New Zealand inflation expectations, U.S. producer prices, second-quarter GDP revisions in the euro area, U.K. first-quarter GDP, U.S. retail sales, and Japanese producer prices. RBC also noted that the Bank of Japan and Riksbank will release minutes from their latest meetings, while Norges Bank's Financial Stability Report is due Tuesday.On rates, RBC said the Bank of Canada's expected hold last week was delivered, although "the balance of changes tilted hawkish." The bank noted GDP growth is tracking in the 1.5%-2% range in the first quarter, which would result in a lessening of excess slack in the economy if realized in the full expenditure breakdown. RBC added improved labour market outcomes are expected as part of slack reduction over the year. "We maintain our long-held view: base case is the BoC on hold in 2026, with hikes in 2027, but the chance of H2 hikes far exceeds the chance of a cut."Meanwhile, RBC noted Government of Canada bonds outperformed their U.S. Treasury counterparts following the weaker jobs report, with the Canada/U.S. 10-year spread tightening 5 basis points to at -89 basis points from last Friday.On technicals, RBC said after yields failed to close above the key double top at 3.62%, the move back below a trendline dating to late February, now at 3.54%, "eases some of the topside risks.""This opens 3.43% and 3.39% next on the downside," RBC added.

$CXY$CAD$USD

International137d ago

USD's Weekly Coppock Curve "Still Nominally In An Uptrend" Vs CAD, "But It Is Peaking", says Rosenberg Research

Walter Murphy over at Rosenberg Research noted in a last comment in early April the U.S. dollar's weekly Coppock Curve was in a confirmed uptrend against the Canadian dollar and was on pace to remain constructive into the latter part of May. Five weeks on, the indicator is still nominally in an uptrend, but it is peaking, he said. More importantly, the greenback is currently a good deal below its early-April levels against the Canadian currency, "despite those seemingly favorable momentum conditions", he added.According to Murphy, April's promise was "overwhelmed" by the combination of the 2025-2026 resistance trendline and the lower reaches of C$1.402-C$1.417 chart resistance area. "Those two elements have clearly proven their mettle (again)," Murphy said.Murphy noted the greenback is currently in the middle of the C$1.375-C$1.340 support range, while the resistance line is now at C$1.385 and declining by C$0.001 per week. "At that rate, it will not challenge the upper portion of the support band until early July," Murphy said.The peaking Coppock indicator will likely enter a confirmed downtrend by the end of May, according to Murphy. However, he said, the resulting bearish bias may only continue for a relatively few weeks, "perhaps into late June or early July."Under those conditions, Murphy said there may not be enough time for the U.S. dollar to do much more than test the lower boundaries of the C$1.375-C$1.340 support area.He added the year-to-date lows in the C$1.353-C$1.348 range "would be expected to provide some intervening support."

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International137d ago

US Existing Homes Sales Pace Expected to Accelerate in April

The National Association of Realtors' measure of US existing-home sales is expected to accelerate to a 4.05 million annual rate in April, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, after falling by 3.6% to a 3.98 million rate in March.Existing-home sales were at a 4.02 million rate in April 2025, so the year-over-year change would be slightly positive.The data are scheduled to be released at 10:00 am ET Monday.The pending home sales index, also produced by the NAR, was up 1.5% in March but was 1.1% below its reading a year ago. That measure is taken at contract signing and is meant to foreshadow movements in existing homes closings a month or two out.Recent mortgage application data from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicated that mortgage rates fell early in April before rising at the end of the month.

International137d ago

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 8

The April employment report was mixed, with payrolls growth stronger than expected the unemployment rate unchanged, and hourly earnings growth slower than expected.Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April after an upwardly-revised 185,000 gain in March and a downwardly revised 156,000 decline in February. Private payrolls rose by 123,000, also above expectations and following a 190,000 gain in March.Health care and social assistance jobs rose by 53,900 in April while transportation and warehousing jobs rose by 30,300 and retail trade jobs advanced by 21,800.The unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in March, but the details suggested a deterioration in the employment picture. The labor force contracted by 92,000 as labor force participation declined. Household employment fell by 226,000 while the number of unemployed rose by 134,000.Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% in April, the same as in March, but lifting the year-over-year rate to 3.6% from 3.4%.The preliminary Michigan Sentiment index fell to 48.2 in May from 49.8 in April.According to Michigan, consumers' assessment of current conditions deteriorated in May due to continued concerns about the Middle East conflict, but the near-term outlook improved on lower inflation expectations.March wholesale inventories were revised lower to a 1.3% increase from a 1.4% gain in the advance reading.At the same time, wholesale sales increased by 2.8%, faster than expected.Combined with already released data for the retail and factory levels of distribution, business inventories are on track for a 0.9% gain while business sales are tracking up 2.1%. Both will be released on May 14, when updated retail inventory and sales estimates will be released.The Q2 GDPnow initial estimate from the St. Louis Fed is for a 1.980% gain.The Q2 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.7% gain, unrevised from the previous estimate.

International137d ago

Cargo Traffic to Los Angeles Port Expected to Fall in Week Ending May 23

Cargo traffic at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to fall in the week ending May 23, according to data from the ship-tracking system Port Optimizer.A total of 103,650 20-foot equivalent units, a standardized measure of cargo capacity, are projected to reach the port in the week, the data showed. That volume reflects a roughly 14% decrease from the previous week and a 0.7% rise from a year earlier.Eighteen freight vessels are scheduled to arrive at the port in the week ending May 23, the data showed. That is fewer than the 19 vessels during this week and 21 scheduled for the week ending May 16.

International137d ago

TSX Up Near 190 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Higher, Led By Base Metals and Energy

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up near 190 points early Friday afternoon with most sectors higher.Base Metals and Energy are the best performers, up near 2.6% and 1.0%, respectively.Info tech, down 1.25%, is the biggest decliner.On the economics front, focus was on the release of Canada jobs data for April. Over at Desjardins, Tiago Figueiredo said Canada's labour market remained soft in April, with elevated energy prices likely adding to the strain. He noted after stabilizing in March, the economy shed 17.7K jobs in April, lifting the unemployment rate two ticks to 6.9%. All of the job losses were in full-time positions while part-time employment saw a gain of 29K.Figueiredo said rising energy prices may have played some role here: job losses were concentrated in the transportation, recreation and construction sectors. Across provinces, there was notable weakness in Quebec, but that was largely offset by a rebound in Ontario. Additionally, there was no real evidence of additional hiring in the energy sector in Alberta.Among the key points, Figueiredo noted the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since October of last year. Separately, wage growth accelerated again in April, but Statistics Canada pointed out that the recent acceleration is a result of changes in the composition of employment. Using a fixed-weight measure shows that wages increased 3.4% in April, consistent with fixed-weight rates seen in February and March."Despite some regional weakness, the details of today's release suggest the labour market is soft but not falling off a cliff. Given that policymakers need to balance this weakness with upside risks to inflation, we continue to expect the Bank of Canada remains on hold for the remainder of this year," Figueiredo said.CIBC's view is that continued trade uncertainty and increased energy costs are likely making companies wary of adding to their workforce, and these worries are unlikely to ease in the near-term. The bank sees the unemployment rate holding near current levels throughout much of the year. With ample slack in the labour market, its less likely that core measures of inflation will accelerate much in the months ahead, and as a result CIBC doesn't think the Bank of Canada will need to respond to the current oil price shock by raising interest rates. CIBC continues to forecast no change in interest rates throughout 2026.

S&P/TSX CompositeS&P/TSX Composite$CXY

International137d ago

Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate Unrevised at 3.7% Gain

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International137d ago

Job Reports Not Enough To Take USD-CAD Out Of Its Range Bound Environment, RBC says

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