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Higher Oil Prices Weigh on Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia Mixed, Europe Off

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Wall Street futures pointed marginally lower pre-bell Monday, as crude prices rose following President Donald Trump's rejection Sunday of a peace proposal from Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to sea traffic.

In the futures, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Nasdaq declined 0.1% and the Dow Jones was flat.

Investors also await key economic releases this week from Washington, including the consumer price index (CPI) bulletin for April on Tuesday, the producer price index (PPI) report for April on Wednesday, and the April retail sales release on Thursday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded up 2.6% at $97.94 in morning action.

Constellation Energy (CEG) is scheduled to release earnings per-bell.

Blue-chips Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Brookfield (BN), Oklo (OKLO), and Nebius (NBIS) are slated to report earnings later this week, among others.

Asian exchanges traded unevenly overnight, although Seoul's KOSPI index gained 4.3% to strike a fresh all-time high on AI-sector optimism. European bourses edged lower midday on the continent.

On the economic calendar is the existing home sales report for April, at 10 am ET.

In pre-market action, bitcoin traded at $81,069, and 10-year US Treasuries offered 4.39%. Spot gold commanded $4,665 an ounce.

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International

Westpac Expects Slower Normalization to Strait of Hormuz Shipping Flows

Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz are now expected to reach around 10% to 15% of pre-conflict levels through June, with a return to normal flows unlikely to materialize until mid-2027, Westpac said in a market outlook report published May 8.That compares with a previous forecast published in March for flows to hit around 20% of pre-conflict levels in May and June before recovering to normal by the close of this year."Our assumption of a more sustained period of disruption to shipping through the Strait means it will take longer for smaller Gulf producers, including Kuwait, that have faced some production 'shut ins' due to storage capacity constraints, to return to normal," the bank said.Due to continued uncertainty over a resolution to the conflict, global monetary and fiscal arms are incorporating higher inflation, lower growth, and weaker labor markets into baseline forecasts. Central banks are navigating the crisis with extreme caution and finding it increasingly difficult to balance inflation and growth risks, according to the report.Westpac said it continues to expect two additional rate hikes from the Australian central bank this year, but with a slightly later timing in August and September.The bank also expects a rate hike in New Zealand in September as higher fuel prices will result in a sharp lift to consumer price index inflation over the coming months.

ASX 200^NZ50
International

Saudi's Annual Industrial Production Falls 14.1% in March

Saudi Arabia's industrial production index declined 14.1% year over year in March, following a revised 15% growth in February, the kingdom's General Authority for Statistics said Sunday.The increase was mainly driven by a decrease in mining and quarrying activity, as well as manufacturing activity. However the sub-index of water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities rose 1.1% during the reporting month.On a monthly basis, the index dropped 22.3%.

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International

USD/CAD Likely To Remain "Trapped" In a Range-bound Environment In Coming Months, RBC Says

USD/CAD is likely to remain "trapped" in a range-bound environment in the coming months, with the pair seen trading between 1.3500 and 1.3900, RBC Capital Markets said in its latest FX View note.RBC added its end-of-second-quarter forecast for USD/CAD stands at 1.3700.The bank said Friday's Canadian and U.S. employment reports point to both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve holding interest rates for now.Although, RBC noted, the Canadian employment series tends to be volatile, it said the latest print "pours some cold water on the possibility of a BoC rate hike in the short-term."Meanwhile, RBC said the "stabilizing" U.S. labour market further diminishes the risk of a near-term dovish Federal Reserve pivot, particularly as attention shifts to potential secondary-round inflation effects.RBC noted the outlook is also unfolding against the backdrop of the ongoing Iran conflict, "for which the path is uncertain.""As long as the USD is not experiencing a sustainable broad-based rally, this morning's Canadian data reinforce CAD's underperformance vs its commodity/higher yielding peers in the past month," the bank said.On technicals, RBC said last week's close below 1.3598 "reasserted the downtrend," suggesting that rallies are viewed as a selling opportunity. The bank noted USD/CAD was hovering around trendline resistance at 1.3674, with 1.3728 seen as the next resistance level. "If USD/CAD closes above the latter, then the risk is additional gains towards 1.3799 and 1.3856," RBC added.Support levels are seen at 1.3526 and 1.3482, according to the bank.

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