Biofuels Update: Supply, Demand Pressures Weigh on Major Feedstocks
Ample supply availability weighed on the Chicago soybean complex on Thursday, while demand-side pressures dragged Malaysian palm oil futures lower.The July soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade eased 0.06% to $11.99 per bushel. The corresponding soybean oil contract fell 0.04% to 74.63 cents per pound.Favorable weather conditions in the US Midwest growing region, potentially boosting soybean yields, pressured prices.Agriculture data showed that the pace of US soybean planting reached 67% in the week ended May 17, up versus the previous year's 63% and the five-year average of 53%. The market was expecting a 66% progress, according to price reporting agency MySteel.In Brazil, vegetable oil industry association Abiove reportedly projects the country's soybean crop for the current season to reach a record high at 180.1 million metric tons, lifting ending stocks to their highest level in nine years.With additional demand from China remaining unclear at this point, Chicago soybeans face a number of downsides."The market is now awaiting new guidance from Thursday evening's export sales report, with US soybeans expected to remain in a volatile-to-weak pattern in the near term," MySteel said.In Asia, declining exports and weaker soybean oil prices weighed on Malaysian palm oil futures on Thursday, although stronger crude oil and prospects of tightening supply limited losses.The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' June crude palm oil contract slumped 2.48% to 4,403 Malaysian ringgit ($1,106.75) per metric ton. The July contract slipped 2.70% to 4,433 ringgit/mt.Cargo surveyors cited by Trading Economics estimated Malaysian shipments in the May 1-20 period to have dropped between 13.9% and 20.5% versus a month earlier.Lower Indian palm oil purchases, which reportedly dropped to a four-month low in April due to high costs, largely weighed on Malaysia's exports.Nonetheless, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council said "palm oil remains the most competitively priced vegetable oil in India," potentially supporting demand going forward. The council, citing data from Oil World Research, said Malaysian shipments may rise by 400,000 metric tons from April through September.A recovery in the local currency, however, may serve as a headwind, as it will directionally raise export prices. Malaysian ringgit inched up 0.4% against the US dollar on Thursday, although the current weekly trend shows a 0.4% moderation.Going forward, a potential tightening in supplies, driven by Indonesia's biofuel policy and export controls, will support prices, analysts said.The country targets to increase palm-based biodiesel blending to 50% from the current 40% beginning July. It also reportedly plans to establish a state-backed agency to manage raw material exports, such as palm oil and coal, with a view of increasing state revenue.Malaysia will start raising the ratio of palm oil in biodiesel to 15%, from the current 10%, in June. Thailand, another palm oil producer, has also expanded biofuel use and tightened export controls to increase domestic supply.This year, weather-related supply risks due to the potential development of an El Nino weather phenomenon in Southeast Asia are expected to support palm oil prices at around 4,400 ringgit/mt, according to MPOC.Elsewhere, persisting fuel supply concerns have prompted the Australian government to assess the feasibility of introducing biofuel mandates, considering that the country is a major exporter of canola seed and tallow, according to multiple media outlets.In the US, June ethanol prices on the NYMEX fell 0.25% to $2.00 per gallon on Wednesday, as domestic production rose and exports fell.For the week ended May 15, data from the Energy Information Administration showed output climbed to 1.11 million barrels per day from the previous week's 1.08 mmbbls/d. Exports showed a diverging trend, dropping week over week to 149,000 barrels per day from 162,000 b/d.Domestic inventories remained largely flat at around 24.87 million barrels.