US Biofuels Update: Soybean Futures Rally on Chinese Demand; Soybean Oil Drops
Biofuels feedstock futures closed mixed on Monday, with soybean prices surging on Chinese demand and uncertain US crop weather, while soybean oil dropped on profit-taking.The Chicago Board of Trade August soybean futures contract closed 1.78% higher on Monday at $12.26 per bushel, while the CBOT August soybean oil futures contract settled 0.17% lower at 74.68 cents per pound.The Nymex August ethanol futures contract settled 0.26% higher on Friday at $1.92 per gallon.Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst, said that the soybean market started the week higher for a second straight week, with plenty of bullish crop-weather to back it up.The two-week weather forecast shows above-average temperatures still prevalent for the Corn Belt, except for a few-day reprieve toward the end of the business week, Montgomery said."Rainfall over this period also looks less than ideal in many areas for corn pollination, especially, but also for pod setting and early filling in soybeans as well," Montgomery said.He added that demand has surged in recent weeks with China ramping up new crop purchases, while the recent and upcoming weather has traders anxious on 2026 supplies with soybean stockpiles in the US already forecast to decline in 2027.On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture reported sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year. An unknown buyer bought 110,000 mt of soybeans for 2026/2027. Colombia bought 100,000 mt of corn for the 2026/2027 marketing year.USDA's Weekly Export Inspection Report on Monday showed that soybean bookings totaled 10.9 million bushels for the week ending July 16.Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.419 billion bushels, down 18% from the previous year.USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.520 bb in 2025-26, down 20% from the previous year.Soybean inspections are running slightly ahead of USDA's estimated pace at a time when USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 16% larger than the previous five-year average.