Energy investors are looking beyond US shale producers toward offshore drilling, Canadian oil companies, and global energy firms as the North American shale industry enters a more mature phase, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Monday.
TPH analysts said after meetings with institutional investors in Toronto and New York, discussions were dominated by the outlook for natural gas, crude prices, and the long-term positioning of energy service companies following recent volatility in oil markets.
The analysts said gas markets are a key focus among investors, with focus centered on the timing of a potential recovery and regional supply-demand dynamics across areas, including the Waha hub in Texas, the Gulf Coast, the US Northeast and Canada.
TPH said among gas-focused stocks, EQT (EQT) and Expand Energy (EXE) attracted the most investor attention, while Canada's Tourmaline Oil, Antero Resources (AR), Range Resources (RRC) and Comstock Resources (CRK) featured in discussions.
On crude markets, investors are assessing a reversal in prices following the Middle East conflict, as well as the factors that provided unexpected support to oil prices, including weaker-than-expected Chinese demand and opaque inventory movements.
However, TPH said that concerns over a potential supply surplus have resurfaced, driven by stronger-than-expected US production growth and rising output discussions around Argentina, the UAE and Iraq.
Shale is structurally maturing, Jeoffrey Lambujon, analyst at TPH Energy, said, adding that the trend could encourage investors to diversify toward Canadian producers, international operators and offshore projects.
Oil-focused discussions covered US producers including Diamondback Energy (FANG), Devon Energy (DVN), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Ovintiv (OVV), together with Canadian firms including Suncor Energy (SU), Cenovus Energy (CVE), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Imperial Oil (IMO).
Global oil majors including Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BP (BP) were also discussed, with investors focusing on inventory levels, capital allocation strategies, growth opportunities, mergers and acquisitions, and regulatory progress affecting Canadian oil sands producers.
Meanwhile, though crude price volatility has kept some investors on the sidelines, interest in the oil services sector remains strong, particularly among investors seeking exposure to longer-term offshore and international growth trends.
Jeff LeBlanc, analyst at TPH, said that US shale's maturation and continued efficiency gains lead many investors to prefer offshore and international names over US pure plays.
Offshore drilling firms attracted attention in nearly every investor meeting, with clients broadly agreeing that the sector benefits from structural supply constraints and improving fundamentals.
TPH said investors raised questions about near-term contract availability, companies' contracting strategies and whether day rates could rise faster than expected as utilization tightens.
However, optimism around oilfield services pricing has moderated somewhat in North America, as producers have indicated that recent pricing discussions have largely been limited to consumable products rather than broad-based service cost increases.
Service companies are projected to differentiate between private and publicly traded operators, with pricing negotiations set to influence H1 2026 results and expectations for 2027 as new bidding cycles emerge.
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