US Oil Update: Crude Steadies as Markets Weigh Iran-Oman Talks, Weak US Jobs Data
Crude futures held steady in after-hours trading on Friday as markets weighed prospects for progress in Iran-Oman talks against concerns over slowing economic growth after weaker-than-expected US jobs data raised questions about fuel demand.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased by 0.3% to $77.08 per barrel, while Brent futures eased by 0.4% to $82.15/bbl.ING strategists said that despite clear signs of progress in recent days, the tenor of the rhetoric and growing distrust between the US and Iran mean tensions could escalate once again.On Friday, the US sanctioned two cryptocurrency exchanges and a network of companies allegedly helping Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other sanctioned entities move and launder billions of dollars through digital assets."We will continue to increase the economic pressure," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.On Thursday, Iran's speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, alleged that President Trump was staging "theater diplomacy," as Washington and Tehran offer conflicting accounts of bilateral engagement aimed at ending their months-long hostilities.Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are working on an agreement to define transit routes through the Strait.The structure of the Iran-Oman agreement in its current form and the power it yields to Iran is nothing that Trump can accept politically, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said, adding that the US President's options are shrinking.An Iranian lawmaker on Thursday reportedly said a parliament committee is reviewing a preliminary bill to ban US, Israeli and other vessels deemed hostile from the Hormuz, and fine violators of the proposed restrictions up to a fifth of cargo value.The plan, according to local media reports, would also bar Israeli cargo and related vessels. The restrictions will extend to "countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran" until that harm is "compensated."The Middle East conflict has escalated after Yemen's Houthis attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the northern Red Sea off the coast of Yanbu on Wednesday.Traffic through the Middle East energy chokepoints diverged, with Kpler data showing 8 confirmed crossings in the Hormuz, down 33%, while crossings via Bab el-Mandeb rose 18% to 26.ING strategists said that flows via the Hormuz will start to normalize through Q3, while forecasting Brent prices to average $80/bbl this quarter. However, there's plenty of risk and uncertainty to this view, the analysts said.Capping the gains, the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US economy lost 139,000 jobs in July, compared with a downwardly revised 20,000 for the previous month. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell further to 61.4%.