United States Oil Fund

Oil Moves Higher as the U.S. Extends Its Ceasefire While Iran Continues to Refuses To Talk

Oil prices moved higher early Wednesday after the United States extended a ceasefire with Iran while continuing to blockade the country's ports, and as Iran attacked ships in the Persian Gulf while rejecting talks with the U.S. until the blockade is lifted.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up $0.15 to US$89.82 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up $0.42 to US$98.90.Oil markets continue to react to developments in the U.S. war on Iran, which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, trapping shipments from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. While U.S. President Trump on Tuesday extended a ceasefire for attacks on the country, he refused to lift a blockade on Iran's ports. Iran has made lifting the blockade a key demand for resuming negotiations to end the war, and again allowing ships to transit the Strait."Oil prices continue to whipsaw, but with Brent holding below US$100 after Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, even as peace talks remain on hold due to Tehran's refusal to negotiate while the US maintains its naval blockade...the result is a continued and severe, and potentially growing, disruption to flows, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.Despite the U.S. ceasefire, Iran attacked two ships on Wednesday, with the Wall Street Journal reporting gunboat attacks on a container ship and another unidentified vessel, while U.S. forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Indian Ocean.A report showed U.S. oil inventories fell last week. In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute reported inventories fell by 4.4-milion barrels last week, under the consensus estimate for a 1.0-mllion barrel drop, according to Investing.com. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later on Wednesday morning.

Brent Crude Up 1.1% at US$99.60

Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Amid Middle East War, Commerzbank Says

Crude oil has been the focus for many amid the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the shortage is particularly acute for refined oil products, and especially for jet fuel, Commerzbank said in a Tuesday note.Warnings have been growing about the shortage, mainly from the Airports Council International and the International Air Transport Association to the European economy, the bank noted.The International Energy Agency has examined the European jet fuel market and found an extremely tight picture. Jet fuel demand in European OECD countries stood at 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, with 1.1 million barrels per day met by domestic production.About 75% of the resulting net import requirement was met by the Gulf region, which is currently strained due to the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.The IEA also pointed to a significant drop in jet fuel stock levels. With the loss of supplies from the Middle East and without adequate replacement, stocks are at risk of falling further, particularly as demand is set to rise in the coming months, the bank said.The EU plans to present a draft proposal on Wednesday to address the jet fuel shortage and prevent impending restrictions on air travel. An EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for oil products is expected to be introduced next month, the bank noted, citing Reuters.Measures will also be introduced to ensure the full utilization and maintenance of refining capacity. However, as many refineries are already operating at full capacity, the measures are likely to have a limited impact, Commerzbank said.

Crude Oil Prices Climb Following Gunfire Attacks on Ships in Strait of Hormuz

Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday after container ships were reportedly hit by gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating concerns about the conflict's impact on global supply.Brent crude at last look gained 0.7% to US$99.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.7% to $90.25/barrel. This comes after gunfire attacks on at least three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing maritime security sources and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was indefinitely extended hours before its expiry to allow talks to end the war to proceed, the report said.Meanwhile, in Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Druzhba oil pipeline, which carries supplies from Russia, is ready to resume operation, according to the report. However, industry sources said in the report that Russia is set to halt exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the pipeline starting May 1.

Update: WTI Oil Rises Amid an Uncertain Outlook for U.S.-Iran Talks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed higher on Tuesday amid an uncertain outlook for talks between Iran and the United States.WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up US$2.52 to settle at US$92.13 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen US$3.11 to US$98.59.The drop comes amid expectations that talks between the two countries will reach a deal to end hostilities as a two-week ceasefire agreement is set to expire tomorrow. However Iran has not publicly confirmed it will send negotiators to Pakistan to meet with the United States, though the Wall Street Journal reported Iran has told mediators it will send a team to the talks.Prices surged on Monday as Iran on Friday briefly opened and then again closed the Strait of Hormuz as the United States continued to block Iranian ports and disabled and boarded an Iranian cargo ship. The closure of the Strait is blocking oil exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand."Potential talks with the US in Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire's expiry on Wednesday follows a weekend marked by renewed tensions and conflicting signals, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for now. The limited number of vessels managing to transit has done little to ease the ongoing tightening of the global energy market, which is increasingly short of prompt supplies - supporting elevated prices across diesel, jet fuel, fertilisers, and other key commodities," Saxo Bank noted.The closure of the Strait has forced up spot prices for oil as Asian nations fight for immediately available supply while raising concerns high oil prices, as well as the price of refined products, LNG and other commodities supplied by Persian Gulf countries, will hike inflation and force higher interest rates.

May WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$2.52; Settles at US$92.13 per Barrel

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Edge Higher Premarket Tuesday

Energy stocks were edging higher premarket Tuesday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) advancing by 0.2%.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 0.2% and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.1% lower.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 0.1% lower at $89.51 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil fell 0.4% to $95.07 per barrel, and natural gas futures were down 0.2% at $2.69 per 1 million British Thermal Units.Shell (SHEL) faces a fresh lawsuit by a Dutch climate activist organization demanding it immediately end its investments in new oil and gas projects, Reuters reported, citing court documents. Shares of Shell were 0.7% higher pre-bell.Spain's National Markets and Competition Commission, or CNMC, has shelved its investigation into BP (BP), Repsol, and Cepsa's alleged collusive practices and abuse of their dominant market position, according to a translation of a statement from the regulator. BP stock was up 0.6% premarket.Halliburton (HAL) stock was up more than 1% after the company reported lower Q1 adjusted net income and revenue that still topped analysts' expectations.

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Tuesday Amid Second Round of US-Iran Talks

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.2% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) advanced 0.3% in Tuesday's premarket activity, amid a second round of talks between the US and Iran.US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.4%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 0.6%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.4% before the start of regular trading.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's monthly non-manufacturing activity index rose to minus 16.5 in April from minus 23.9 in the previous month, compared with expectations for a small increase to a minus 19.8 reading in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET, indicating a slower pace of contraction in the sector.US retail sales rose 1.7% in March, above expectations for a 1.4% increase and compared with a prior 0.7% gain.The pending home sales data for March and the business inventories data for February will be released at 10:00 am ET.Fed Governor Christopher Waller is slated to speak on Tuesday.In premarket action, bitcoin advanced by 0.4%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 0.5% higher, Ether ETF (EETH) retreated 0.2%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) declined by 0.3%.Power Play:Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) gained 0.8%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was 0.9% higher, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) rose 2%. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) advanced 0.02%.UnitedHealth (UNH) stock was up more than 7% premarket after the company reported higher Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.Winners and Losers:FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) advanced 0.4%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was up 1.2%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 0.8% lower.MSCI (MSCI) shares were up more than 4% pre-bell after the company reported higher Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) advanced 0.3%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.6% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 0.4%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) increased by 1.9%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 1%.Onto Innovation (ONTO) shares were up more than 2% in Tuesday's premarket activity after the company said it plans for a $710 million equity investment in Rigaku to advance the so-called process control services for semiconductor manufacturing.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) retreated by 0.2% and the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was 0.3% lower. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gained 0.9%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was 0.6% higher.D.R. Horton (DHI) shares were up more than 6% pre-bell after the company reported higher-than-expected fiscal Q2 net income and revenue.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) slipped by 0.1%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) retreated 0.2% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) stock was down more than 1% before the opening bell after the company said its Q1 passenger traffic dropped by 5.5% year-over-year, even as its net income and revenue were higher.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was up 0.1%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was up by 0.2%.Shell (SHEL) stock was up 0.7% before the opening bell. Reuters reported, citing court documents, that the company faces a fresh lawsuit by a Dutch climate activist organization demanding it immediately end its investments in new oil and gas projects.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated by 0.4% to $89.29 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas declined by 0.8% to $2.67 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) increased by 0.9%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.4% higher.Gold futures for May were down by 0.4% to $4,812.10 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures retreated by 1.1% to $79.73 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was 0.4% lower, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell by 0.7%.

Oil Edges Down on Hopes U.S.-Iran Talks Will Lead to a Deal to End the War

Oil prices edged lower early on Tuesday amid an uncertain outlook for talks between Iran and the United States.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery was last seen down US$0.29 to US$89.32 per barrel, while June Brent oil was down US$0.13 to US$95.35.The drop comes amid expectations that talks between the two countries will reach a deal to end hostilities as a two-week ceasefire agreement is set to expire tomorrow. However Iran has not publicly confirmed it will send negotiators to Pakistan to meet with the United States, though the Wall Street Journal reports Iran has told mediators it will send a team to the talks.Prices surged on Monday as Iran on Friday briefly opened and then again closed the Strait of Hormuz as the United States continued to block Iranian ports and disabled and boarded an Iranian cargo ship. The closure of the Strait is blocking oil exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand."Potential talks with the US in Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire's expiry on Wednesday follows a weekend marked by renewed tensions and conflicting signals, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for now. The limited number of vessels managing to transit has done little to ease the ongoing tightening of the global energy market, which is increasingly short of prompt supplies - supporting elevated prices across diesel, jet fuel, fertilisers, and other key commodities," Saxo Bank noted.The closure of the Strait has forced up spot prices for oil as Asian nations fight for immediately available supply while raising concerns high oil prices, as well as the price of refined products, LNG and other commodities supplied by Persian Gulf countries, will hike inflation and force higher interest rates."Financial markets are betting that a US/Iranian resolution will save us in time from violent shortages down the road. But every day that the (Strait) remains closed is bringing us closer to a potentially very painful point of shortages and much higher prices," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst commodities at SEB Research, wrote.

Crude Oil Prices Decline on Optimism About U.S.-Iran Peace Talks

Crude oil prices saw losses on Tuesday as the market looks forward to peace talks between the U.S. and Iran this week.Brent crude at last look lost 0.4% to US$95.13/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $88.04/barrel. Investors are focused on the likelihood that the talks will result in an extension of the ceasefire or a final agreement, easing concerns about disrupted supply flows through the region, Reuters said in a Tuesday report.However, the possibility of further conflict and prolonged supply disruptions remain. "We believe markets are underpricing the ongoing supply disruption. Optimism appears to be clouding the reality of the supply shock," Reuters quoted ING analysts as saying in a note."We continue to lean toward a [memorandum of understanding] being signed and/or the ceasefire being extended this week, potentially evolving into a broader agreement," Citi analysts were quoted as saying. "That said, we remain prepared to pivot toward a more protracted disruption scenario should negotiations falter this week."However, no decision has been made to attend on the part of Iran, an Iranian official said in the report.

Update: WTI Oil Surges as Iran Again Blocks the Strait of Hormuz

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged 6.9% on Monday after Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States refused to end a blockade of country's ports while firing on and seizing an Iranian cargo ship.WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up US$5.76 to settled at US$89.61 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$4.74 to US$95.12.Prices plunged on Friday after Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. However it later again refused to permit transit through the waterway as the United States declined to end its blockade of Iran's ports.The United States is sending negotiators to Pakistan for peace talks. Iran has not yet publicly said it will attend, however the Wall Street Journal said Pakistan has bee told it will send officials to the negotiations. A ceasefire between the two countries ends tomorrow, with U.S. President Trump again threatening to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure unless a deal is reached."Traders entered the weekend on the assumption that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, only for it to be effectively closed again within hours after the IRGC claimed a US blockade of Iran-linked vessels violated the ceasefire agreement set to expire on Tuesday. Prices extended gains after the US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian vessel, further undermining confidence in any near-term diplomatic progress," Saxo Bank wrote.The closure of the Strait has produced the largest-ever energy supply shock, pushing up physical oil prices along with gasoline and diesel costs and causing widespread shortages of aviation fuel."We have a divergence where the financial market is trading negotiations, improvements and resolution while at the same time the physical market is deteriorating day by day. Physical oil flows remain constrained by disrupted flows, longer voyage times and elevated freight and insurance costs," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst Commodities, at SEB Research wrote.

May WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$5.78; Settles at US$89.61 per Barrel

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Advance Premarket Monday

Energy stocks were advancing premarket Monday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) 0.6% higher.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 3.9% and The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.3% higher.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 5.8% higher at $88.68 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil rose 5.1% to $94.95 per barrel, and natural gas futures were up 1.6% at $2.72 per 1 million British Thermal Units.Eni (E) shares were up 0.7% after the company said it has made a gas discovery in the Kutei Basin off the coast of Indonesia.Phillips 66 (PSX) and Kinder Morgan (KMI) said they are advancing the proposed Western Gateway Pipeline after a successful second open season secured sufficient long-term shipper commitments, subject to final approvals. Phillips 66 stock was up more than 1% premarket.Sable Offshore (SOC) shares were up more than 3% after the company said capital expenditure across its assets is expected to be around $180 million from April through December this year.

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Monday as Oil Prices Rise on Renewed Middle East Tensions

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.4% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.4% lower in Monday's premarket activity as rising oil prices tied to renewed Middle East tensions weigh on sentiment.US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500 Index futures down 0.5%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures retreating 0.4% before the start of regular trading.No economic releases are on Monday's schedule.In premarket activity, bitcoin was up by 0.4%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 2.8% lower, Ether ETF (EETH) fell by 4.8%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) gained 1.7%.Power Play:IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) retreated 0.2%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) fell 1.6% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.TopBuild (BLD) stock was up more than 2% before the opening bell, while QXO (QXO) shares declined by 2% after QXO agreed to acquire TopBuild for $505 per share in a deal valued at about $17 billion.Winners and Losers:TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) retreated 0.5%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.3% lower, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 0.9%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was 0.1% lower, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) decreased by 0.2%.AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares were down more than 12% in Monday's premarket activity after the company said Sunday the BlueBird 7 satellite was placed into a lower-than-planned orbit during the New Glenn 3 mission and will be de-orbited.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) retreated 0.3%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) retreated 0.4%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) gained 0.1%. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was down 0.6%.AstraZeneca (AZN) stock was down more than 2% premarket, after a 2.2% gain at Friday's close. The company said Monday its pivotal phase 3 study of tozorakimab demonstrated a "significant" reduction in the annual rate of moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbations in trial participants.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) retreated 0.5%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was down 1.4%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 1.7% higher.Bank of Hawaii (BOH) shares were down more than 2% pre-bell after the company reported lower-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was down 0.2%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was up 1.1%. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) rose 2.3%. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) lost 0.7%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) retreated by 0.5%.Toyota Motor (TM) shares were down more than 1% pre-bell, after closing Friday with a 2% rise. Reuters reported Monday that Toyota Tsusho and Indonesian state energy firm Pertamina's renewable energy unit are in talks over a potential $200 million to $300 million joint investment for a bioethanol production facility in Indonesia's Lampung province.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was 1.3% higher, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was up by 1.1%.Eni (E) stock was up more than 1% before the opening bell after the company said it made a gas discovery in the Kutei Basin off the coast of Indonesia.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 5.6% to $88.52 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas advanced by 2.1% to $2.73 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) increased by 4.9%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 1.1% higher.Gold futures for May were down by 1% at $4,830.50 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures retreated by 2.4% to $80.47 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was 0.9% lower, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell by 2%.

Oil Prices Surge as Iran Again Blocks the Strait of Hormuz; Peace Talks in Doubt as the U.S. Port Blockade Continues

Oil prices surged early on Monday after Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States refused to end a blockade of country's ports while firing on and seizing an Iranian cargo ship, lowering expectations the two countries will resume peace talks.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery was last seen up US$4.63 to US$88.48 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up US$4.34 to US$94.72.Prices plunged on Friday after Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. However it later again refused to permit transit through the waterway as the United States declined to end its blockade of Iran's ports.The United States is sending negotiators to Pakistan for peace talks but The Guardian reported Iran has no plans to attend after the U.S. disabled and seized a Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf on the weekend. A ceasefire between the two countries ends tomorrow, with U.S. President Trump again threatening to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure unless a deal is reached."Traders entered the weekend on the assumption that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, only for it to be effectively closed again within hours after the IRGC claimed a US blockade of Iran-linked vessels violated the ceasefire agreement set to expire on Tuesday. Prices extended gains after the US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian vessel, further undermining confidence in any near-term diplomatic progress," Saxo Bank wrote.The closure of the Strait has produced the largest-ever energy supply shock, pushing up physical oil prices along with gasoline and diesel costs and causing widespread shortages of aviation fuel."We have a divergence where the financial market is trading negotiations, improvements and resolution while at the same time the physical market is deteriorating day by day. Physical oil flows remain constrained by disrupted flows, longer voyage times and elevated freight and insurance costs," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst Commodities, at SEB Research wrote.

Brent Crude Up 5% at Above US$94.90 and NY Crude Up 6.2% at Above US$89 After Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again

Crude Oil Markets Face Uncertainty Amid Developments in Middle East, Commerzbank Says

Uncertainty in the oil markets remain high as tensions are likely to rise significantly again, and price movements are heavily dependent on developments in the Middle East, Commerzbank said in a Friday note.According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, global oil disruptions now total about 13 million barrels per day.In the U.S., meanwhile, trends in inventories have been largely alarming, the bank noted. Crude imports plummeted last week, and a repeat of this would heighten the market's awareness of supply shortages, Commerzbank said.The IEA has also revised downward its forecast for oil demand this year in its monthly report. It no longer expects an increase, but rather a slight decline in global demand.The decline in demand is concentrated primarily in liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha and ethane, which are used as feedstocks in the petrochemical industry and are particularly affected by supply disruptions, the bank said.

Crude Oil Prices Jump as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Appears Fragile

Crude oil prices surged on Monday amid concerns about the fragility of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude at last look gained 5% to US$94.92/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 6% to $88.89/barrel. This comes after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, and despite Iran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened through the ceasefire, tankers have been fired upon by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Reuters reported Monday, citing analysts."Market fundamentals are getting worse, as 10-11 million barrels per day of crude oil remains shut in," Reuters quoted Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh as saying.Iran said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to start before the two-week ceasefire expires this week, igniting fears of a resumption in hostilities, the report said.

Update: WTI Oil Plunges 11% as Iran Reopens the Strait of Hormuz to Commercial Shipping

(Updates prices and adds detail.)West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed sharply lower on Friday after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, freeing up tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf and ending a supply shock that sent prices to four-year highs.WTI crude oil for May delivery closed down US$10.84, or 11.5%, to settle at US$83.85 per barrel, while June Brent oil last seen was down US$9.45 to US$89.94.Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said in a social-media post that "passage for all commercial vessels through strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire".Ceasefires are holding on both fronts in the Middle East, as Israel and Lebanon on Thursday agreed to a ceasefire in Israel's war on Hezbollah militants in the country. There are also hopes for further talks between the U.S. and Iran to end their conflict that had closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil and LNG demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.Though the situation remains unclear and the full return of production from Persian Gulf states is likely to be slow as shut-in oil fields resume production and repairs to energy infrastructure attacked by Iran. Still, there are reports tankers have begun moving toward the Strait."Rystad Energy is still tracking approximately 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of curtailed oil production across Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Even so, today's announcement has materially shifted the probability distribution of outcomes. The market is not waiting for a formal deal - it is pricing in the possibility of one," said Artem Abramov, Rystad's Deputy Head of Analysis.An Israeli stand down on attacks in Lebanon was a key part of Iran's demands in talks with the U.S. and may ease the path for further talks between the two countries. U.S. President Trump on Thursday said he expects talks moderated by Pakistan to soon resume.The Wall Street Journal on Friday reported comments from Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh that Iran is expecting talks to result in a permanent settlement to the war rather than another temporary ceasefire, citing Turkey's state news agency, while saying Iran is looking to regulate transits through the vital Strait

May WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$10.85;Settles at US$83.85 per Barrel