$TD.TO

CIBC Says Strong Earnings From Banks Due to Capital Markets in Q2 Preview, Downgrades National Bank

CIBC recommends investors rotate money out of banks into lifecos, even as it expects a strong second-quarter earnings from the sector when it starts reporting on May 27. Analyst Paul Holden, who notes that the strong earnings will be predominately based on capital markets activity, has also downgraded National Bank (NA.TO) to neutral.Holden says the credit outlook is incrementally worse and he is getting more cautious on credit losses given the weakness in Canadian unemployment, a soft housing market in the GTA, and industry credit metrics. Loan growth is expected to remain muted and net interest margin is also likely to be less of a tailwind this quarter. "We would not be surprised to see the banks report EPS beats again this quarter, but perhaps like the U.S. banks, capital markets-driven beats will no longer be good enough to drive the stocks higher."National Bank is downgraded to neutral from outperform, with Holden pointing out that "two years' worth of returns were delivered in three months". The stock is up ~20% in the past three months and is now trading at the highest multiple in the group (9% premium on F2027 consensus). Fiscal 2028 consensus estimates are giving full credit for ROE expansion, Holden adds.BMO (BMO.TO) is Holden's only outperformer-rated bank as there is still upside potential to consensus estimates relative to its 15% ROE target. "With the recovery in U.S. commercial loan growth, there is also a possibility that U.S. balance sheet growth comes in higher than expected. We also think the relative skew to the U.S. can help with impaired PCLs in the near term."BMO is trading at a 5% discount to the group average P/E and a strong quarter that demonstrates continued progress towards ROE targets should help the stock.Price: $203.95, Change: $-0.69, Percent Change: -0.34%

TD Bank Upgraded, Royal Bank Downgraded at Raymond James

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform, and Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James.Analyst Stephen Boland raised his price target on TD to $152.50 from $141, and on Royal Bank to $265.50 from $248.Boland increased his targets on Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) to $227 from $214 (Outperform), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO) to $120 from $117 (Outperform), CIBC (CM.TO) to $157.50 from $148.50 (Market Perform), and National Bank of Canada (NA.TO) to $206.50 from $200 (Market Perform)."We believe TD is reasonably valued relative to improving fundamentals and have increased confidence in management's ability to execute on its strategic priorities," the analyst said in a note to clients."TD also benefits from above-average US exposure, where the NIM and loan growth outlook are more favourable than in Canada," Boland said."We continue to view RBC as a scaled, diversified franchise with a lower-volatility earnings profile," the analyst said. "However, those same attributes may limit relative upside this quarter.""In a stronger trading revenue environment, RBC's greater exposure to rates and credit trading may benefit less than peers with higher exposure to equities, currencies, and commodities," Boland said."With RY trading at roughly a one-turn P/E premium to the peer group (excl. RY), we believe the stock is priced to execute, and the absence of a larger trading revenue uplift could limit near-term upside."

TSX Closer: A Lower Close Amid Uncertainty Over Peace Talks; Rosenberg Research On Canadian Banks

The Toronto Stock Exchange was back in negative territory Thursday with both the Base Metals and Energy sectors lower, and amid reports Iran is still reviewing a peace proposal put forward by the United States, while the two nations wrestle over talks to end the war.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 125.2 points to 33,856.62, as Base Metals, down 1.7%, and Energy, down 1.4%, led decliners. In contrast, the Battery Metals Index led gainers, rising 7.8%.Reflecting the overall negative tone to the market, the Financial sector lost 0.4% even as Rosenberg Research published a note entitled 'Canadian Banks: Quality at a Premium Price' in which it said secular market themes continue to support Canadian banks' premium valuations, as the sector benefits from rising global interest in non-U.S.-dollar, commodity-based economies.Key takeaways from the note written by Mehmet Beceren, Senior Markets Strategist at Rosenberg, include the idea that Canadian banks are benefiting from more than bank fundamentals. As heavyweights in the Canadian equity index, the Big Six are getting a side benefit from global flows into Canada as investors seek exposure to hard assets, commodities, oil, gold, and non-U.S.-dollar markets, Beceren said.Another takeaway is that the quality premium is defensible. "Valuations are not cheap relative to history, but high profitability and supportive thematic tailwinds justify higher multiples in a market that continues to re-rate quality earnings," Beceren added.Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a third-straight session, but rose off the day's low on uncertain prospects for a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down $0.27 to settle at US$94.81 per barrel, after earlier touching US$89.85. July Brent oil was down $0.67 to US$100.60Gold had risen for a third-straight session by midafternoon Thursday on optimism a deal to end the war on Iran may be near, cutting into oil prices and pushing the dollar lower amid easing fears the supply shock around the war would boost inflation and force higher interest rates. Gold for June delivery was up $20.60 to US$4,714.00 per ounce, after rising by US$125,80 on Wednesday.

TSX Closer: Index Down In All But 1 of the Last 8 Sessions; Morningstar Cites 10 Top-Performing Dividend Stocks

The Toronto Stock Exchange has closed lower in all but one of the last eight sessions, with the latest losses on this Tuesday coming as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US-Iran ceasefire "is not over" despite attacks in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 71.96 points, or 0.2%, at 33.566.91, even as most sectors were higher, led by Health Care, up 2.5%, followed By Base Metals, up 2%, and Energy, up 1.4%. Information Technology was down near 4.2% and the Battery Metals Index was down 2.6%.Among individual stocks, BNN Bloomberg TV cited Ero Copper, up more than 5% today and up just short of 100% over one year. The company reported first-quarter results earlier Tuesday. BNN also cited Parex Resources (PXT.TO), up near 5% as Frontera (FEC.TO) obtained a final order approving their plan of arrangement.On the negative side, BNN cited Shopify (SHOP.TO), down more than 15% after its Q1 results, and Keyera (KEY.TO), which lost more than 7% as the Competition Bureau moved to block its $5.15-billion acquisition of Plains All American Pipelines Canadian natural-gas liquids business.Still on individual stocks, Morningstar Canada said the top performing dividend payers in April included engineering and construction company Aecon (ARE.TO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO), and asset management firm IGM Financial (IGM.TO). Morningstar noted dividend-paying stocks that "combine healthy balance sheets with hefty yields" can provide investors with "steady incomes, cushion against market downturns, and grow investments at a healthy clip".A screening of the Morningstar Canada Index, which measures the performance of Canada's broad regional markets, targeting the top 97% of stocks by market capitalization, for companies with a forward dividend yield of at least 1.5%, excluding real estate investment trusts, showed the best performing Canadian dividend stocks last month. This included the aforementioned Aecon, CIBC and IGM. The list also included National Bank of Canada (NA.TO), TD Bank Group (TD.TO), Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services (IAG.TO), Power Corporation of Canada (POW.TO), TMX Group (X.TO), Sun Life Financial (SLF.TO) and Superior Plus (SPB.TO).Of commodities, gold traded higher by midafternoon, rising off a five-week low as treasury yields weakened. Gold for June delivery was up US$35.60 to US$4,568.90 per ounce.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 3.9% with the ceasefire between the United States and Iran seen holding, calming Monday's gains as violence in the Persian Gulf eased. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$4.15 to settle at US$102.27 per barrel, after rising 4.4% on Monday, while July Brent oil was down US$4.24 to US$110.20.

TD Bank Group Issues 150 Million Swiss francs Green Bond

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO) after the close Thursday said it issued its seventh sustainable-labelled bonds for 150-million Swiss francs. The bank said its total sustainable bond issuances have now exceeded C$5.2 billion since 2014."TD's first European green bond continues building the strength of our sustainable financing program, helping us support clients pursuing sustainable investment in a new jurisdiction," said Nicole Vadori, head of sustainability at TD.TD shares closed up $3.40 at $146.33 on Toronto Stock Exchange.

TD Bank Group Issuing CHF 150 Million Green Bond

Higher Prices Rather Than Broad-based Demand Growth May Be Driving Canada Retail Sales Momentum, says TD

Consumers delivered another "solid" month in February, and early indications point to continued strength in March, but inflation jumped in March, suggesting some of the momentum is being driven by higher prices rather than broad-based demand growth, says Maria Soloviev at TD Economics on Friday following the release of the retail sales data for February.Internal TD Spend data point to some softening in discretionary spending in March, she noted while looking at the key implications of Friday's release.Higher energy prices will dent purchasing power, but TD does not expect this to materially weaken domestic demand beyond what's already embedded in its outlook, Soloviev said. Together with the drags from weak population growth and trade-related headwinds the economy is expected to grow at a below-trend pace this year, she added.TD noted retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month (m/m) in February, extending gains into a second month. This was below Statistics Canada's advance estimate for a 0.9% increase. In volume terms, activity increased a more modest 0.3% m/m, suggesting the headline gain was largely driven by prices.Looking ahead, Statistics Canada's advance estimate points to a further 0.6% m/m increase in March.

TD Says Virtual Card Numbers Now Available Through Google as Payment Option

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO) announced Tuesday the availability of Virtual card numbers through Google as a payment option for online shopping on Google Chrome and in-app shopping.It said this move makes TD the first Canadian financial institution where TD Visa credit cardholders will have the option to make online purchases without sharing their payment card details with merchants with the use of virtual card numbers through Google Chrome.The company said that when a purchase is made, the browser or app replaces the physical card number with a unique virtual card number. On check out, the virtual number hides the personal payment card details from the merchant and helps to protect against fraud.Shares of the company closed up 0.9% to $145.41 on Monday on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

OSFI's Annual Risk Outlook Flags Key Risks For Financial Sector, Regulator's Response

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) on Tuesday said it will focus on achieving "resilience in stress" for the Canadian banking sector.In its 2026-2027 Annual Risk Outlook, released on Tuesday, the regulator flagged real-estate secured lending risks, non-bank financial institution risks, liquidity and funding as the key issues facing the financial sector.Housing and mortgage pressures have increased in some parts of the country. Risks outside the traditional banking system have also expanded, including in areas where non-bank lenders and investment funds are taking on more borrowing. Global uncertainty may also impact confidence in funding markets."Although cost and availability of funding have remained stable, the speed at which a liquidity event could unfold remains a key concern," the report noted.To mitigate these risks, OSFI's supervisory work will include reviewing contingency funding and recovery plans at banks. "We will assess how internationally active institutions consider geopolitical shocks in their plans. We will also focus on the ability of institutions to report liquidity and funding positions under short timelines, including cross-border exposures," the agency said.OSFI will continue to advance work on liquidity-risk guidance for deposit-taking institutions throughout 2026. The most recent revisions to liquidity adequacy requirements will take effect on May 1, 2026, targeting specific retail deposit categories. The regulator will release further updates to liquidity adequacy requirements for consultation as part of the second quarterly release on May 21.OSFI also plans to release a draft internal liquidity adequacy assessment process guidance for consultation as part of the May quarterly release.Price: $202.70, Change: $+1.16, Percent Change: +0.58%