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Commodities

US Active Rig Count Slips by 1 Week Over Week, US-Focused Service Firms Perform Strongly in Q1: RBC

Baker Hughes (BKR) US active land rig count fell by one week over week to 529, RBC Capital Markets said on Monday, while the US oil land rig count was flat at 397.The gas land rig count decreased by two in the week to 125, while miscellaneous rigs increased by one. The US oil land rig count fell by four month over month, while the gas land rig count fell by six over the same period.The Permian Basin's active rig count was flat over the week at 242. That region alone has 61% of the Lower 48 rigs and 46% of total land rigs in the US.US December production, based on EIA data, was 13.2 million barrels a day, rising 1% year over year, mainly driven by rising offshore production, which climbed 12% year over year.At the same time, land production decreased by an average 111,000 barrels per day as increases in New Mexico were partially offset by reductions elsewhere.Natural gas withdrawals in the US were 132 billion cubic feet per day, up 4% and supported by gains in Louisiana and New Mexico, RBC said.The three most active drillers in the Permian Basin are Helmerich & Payne (HP), with 88 rigs and 35% of the total, Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) with 31 rigs and Nabors Industries (NBR) with 27 rigs.The most active Permian operators are Exxon Mobil (XOM) with 34 rigs, Occidental (OXY) with 20 and ConocoPhillips (COP) with 16.In Haynesville, the rig count fell by 1 to 55 and the three most active drillers were Helmerich & Payne with 10 rigs, Independence Contract Drilling (ICD) with 9 and Precision Drilling (PD) with 8.WTI crude stocks fell by 5% week on week, RBC said.NOV (NOV) lowered its first quarter guidance due to financial impacts from disruption in the Middle East during March. Its updated EBITDA guidance is for $177 million,RBC has downgraded NOV to sector perform it said, noting less compelling risk/reward opportunity in its shares.Stocks in RBC's coverage universe within oil and gas services have risen by 36% this year with US-focused firms outperforming those with exposure in the Middle East.

$BKR$COP$HP$NOV$OXY$PTEN$XOM
Oil & Energy

Middle East Rig Count Dropped in March, RBC Says

Middle East onshore rig counts fell by 43 rigs, or 5% over the month in March, while offshore counts declined by 10 rigs, or 4%, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a Tuesday note.These disruptions, along with higher logistics and staffing costs, are expected to pressure first-half results for companies with regional exposure, RBC said.In the US, Q1 rig counts totaled 530, down 7% over the year but above RBC's estimate of 518, prompting an upward revision to its 2026 forecast to 544 from 526.RBC expects activity to remain supported by higher oil prices, easing concerns about a potential drop in West Texas Intermediate crude to $50 per barrel coming into 2026.In Canada, rig counts reached 216, down 4% over the year but slightly above RBC's estimate of 214, with spending expected to remain broadly flat, RBC said.Meanwhile, oilfield services stocks have surged about 36% in 2026, with valuations shifting higher as the sector heads into the Q1 earnings season, strategists said.RBC said Q1 reporting begins Apr. 21 with Halliburton (HAL), Saipem, and Weatherford (WFRD), as investors assess geopolitical risks and future production recovery trends, the report said.RBC said US-focused companies have outperformed peers with Middle East exposure this year, reflecting stronger domestic activity trends and fewer geopolitical disruptions.The firm's top picks include Schlumberger (SLB), Baker Hughes (BKR), TechnipFMC (FTI), Enerflex (EFXT), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), Hunting and CES Energy Solutions, according to the note.Meanwhile, RBC lowered its Q1 EBITDA estimates by 2.4%, with the largest revisions for Schlumberger (SLB) and Trican Well Service (TCW), while raising forecasts for Saipem, TechnipFMC and Enerflex.The revised estimates generally fall below consensus, particularly for Trican Well Service, Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) and Calfrac Well Services (CFW), while exceeding expectations for Halliburton, Enerflex and Ensign Energy Services, RBC said.RBC downgraded Trican Well Service to sector perform from outperform with a $7.50 price target and cut NOV (NOV) to sector perform from outperform with a $21 price target.

$AESI$BKR$EFXT$FTI$HAL$NOV$PTEN$SLB$WFRD

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