Noble Sees Contract Resequencing Shift Rig Activity as Dayrates Remain Firm, TPH Says
Noble (NE) lowered its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook after contract resequencing offset otherwise resilient offshore drilling activity, TPH Energy Research said in a Tuesday note.Two Petrobras (PBR) floaters reduced Q2 revenue by about $43 million, although adjusted EBITDA still broadly matched TPH's expectations despite the lost contract revenue.Management attributed the weaker outlook to revised schedules for the Noble Viking, Noble Intrepid and Noble Innovator, rather than non-productive time, according to TPH Energy Research in a Tuesday note.The Noble Viking will complete its firm contract in October 2026 in Southeast Asia and could remain idle before customers exercise its remaining two contract options, according to the research firm.BP (BP) transferred the remaining backlog from the Noble Innovator to the Noble Intrepid, freeing the Innovator in September 2026 while extending the Intrepid's contract through September 2027.Four optional wells for the Northern Endurance Partnership could keep the jackup active through most of 2028, TPH said.Noble also moved the Noble Developer's expected contract completion to January 2027 from the prior August 2027 schedule, which had included a five-well option. TPH said the revised timeline likely reflects the customer's plan to retender future Gulf of America drilling work.Floater operating days came in about 2% below TPH's expectations, while average floater dayrates met estimates at about $413,000.Jackup dayrates reached $197,000, above TPH's $179,000 estimate, while reimbursable revenue totaled about $40 million versus TPH's $35 million forecast.Noble also retired the Ocean Apex ahead of TPH's expected 2027 timeline. Management added that tightening market conditions have pushed leading-edge rates for Tier I ultra-deepwater drillships into the mid-$400,000s, TPH said.Adjusted EBITDA totaled $212 million, compared with TPH's $210 million estimate and the Street's $219 million forecast.The company lowered its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $850 million to $925 million from $940 million to $1.02 billion, reducing the midpoint by about $93 million, TPH said.Noble maintained its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance at $615 million to $665 million, in line with TPH's $639 million estimate.Second-quarter capital expenditures reached about $205 million, above the Street's $159 million forecast and TPH's $135 million estimate, resulting in negative free cash flow of $59 million versus the Street's negative $9 million forecast and TPH's positive $53 million estimate.Price: $39.29, Change: $-3.82, Percent Change: -8.86%
