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Mining & Metals

Market Chatter: Alberta Oil Pipeline to Cost Sector More Than C$100 Billion, Imperial Says

Alberta's proposed million-barrel-a-day pipeline to the British Columbia coast will require Canada's oil industry to invest more than C$100 billion ($72.5 billion), the chief executive officer of Imperial Oil Ltd. says, Bloomberg is reporting Thursday.Industry will need to invest capital in growing production to fill the new line, make shipping commitments, as well as invest in a carbon capture project mandated by the federal government, John Whelan said at the Energy Roundtable conference in Calgary. The total cost is "north of a hundred billion dollars that we will need to attract to this industry," he said. "Now I think we can do that, but that's kind of scale of what we're talking about."Thursday's report noted Alberta Premier Danielle Smith proposed a new pipeline to the west coast as part of her goal to eventually double oil production in the province. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to back the new pipeline in exchange for a series of measures including a higher industrial carbon tax and the deployment of a long-planned carbon capture project in the oil sands, called Pathways, to reduce emissions, it also noted.Alberta plans to roll out details of the new pipeline, including the planned route to the coast, by July for federal approval by October, the report says. But Alberta's preferred northwest route faces stiff pushback from Indigenous groups in BC as well as the province's Premier David Eby. The project may also require a lifting of a moratorium on oil tankers if the pipeline goes to the northern BC coast, which Smith wants, it adds.Construction could start late next year, the government has said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Mining & Metals

Market Chatter: Oil Sands Firms Can Afford Carbon Capture, Canadian Energy Minister Says

Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said he's "highly confident" that Alberta oil sands companies can absorb the cost of building carbon capture, despite their protests that Canada's climate rules hurt their global competitiveness, Bloomberg is reporting Monday.It noted Prime Minister Mark Carney's government reached an agreement earlier this month with Alberta on the trajectory of its industrial carbon price, a regime that forces heavy polluters to pay for carbon emissions but also generates credits for cutting greenhouse gas outflows.The deal was a crucial step toward building the C$16.5 billion ($12 billion) Pathways carbon capture project for the oil sands, which Carney has said is a necessary condition for approving a new crude oil pipeline to Canada's Pacific coast. As the negotiations unfolded in recent months, however, oil companies began publicly arguing that the carbon price imposes a cost on the Canadian industry that other major oil producers don't bear.In Hodgson's view, those companies were mainly protesting that they weren't directly at the table for the talks, he told Bloomberg in an interview."The reality is the federal government and the provincial government had to agree on what the framework for carbon pricing was before we got them to the table," he said. "Now that that's been done, the engagement will happen. I am highly confident that given how we've structured this, that the cost of Pathways can be readily absorbed."The project spearheaded by five of the largest oil sands companies, including Cenovus Energy Inc. (SU.TO), Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO) and Suncor Energy Inc. (SU.TO), would capture carbon dioxide from multiple facilities and transport it more than 400 kilometers (249 miles) by pipeline to a storage hub in eastern Alberta, where it would be stored underground.The new agreement targets 16 million metric tons of annual emissions reductions from Pathways -- but gradually over the next two decades. The first phase, to be completed by 2035, would build enough carbon capture to remove 6 million metric tons annually. Hodgson said the hope is that technology will have substantially advanced by then, opening up more choices."I think you're going to see a bunch of new technologies that are going to get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper, and that's going to create options for the Pathways folks," Hodgson said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$CLX1$CVE.TO$IMO.TO$LCOX1$SU.TO$USO
Mining & Metals

RBC Maintains Imperial Oil's Underperform Rating, C$124 Price Target After Q1 Results

RBC Capital Markets reiterated its underperform rating on the shares of Imperial Oil (IMO.TO, IMO) and C$124 price target after the oil producer and refiner reported its first-quarter results.Imperial delivered mixed results in the first quarter amid cash flow per share that was 25% lower year over year due to higher cash taxes, analyst Greg Pardy wrote.The company's total production was also down 1% due to the outage at the TC Energy Fort McKay Mainline and unplanned coker downtime at Syncrude."Our constructive stance towards Imperial Oil reflects its long-life, low-decline upstream portfolio, cash flow diversification via its refining and chemical segments, strong balance sheet, free cash flow generation, commitment to shareholder returns and solid operating performance," Pardy said.Price: $179.56, Change: $+1.91, Percent Change: +1.08%

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Mining & Metals

RBC Reaffirms Imperial Oil's Underperform Rating, C$124 Price Target

RBC Capital Markets on Friday reaffirmed Imperial Oil's (IMO.TO, IMO) underperform rating and C$124 price target following the release of the company's first-quarter results.Key takeaways from Imperial Oil's conference call include the company's cost optimization initiatives, with the company's restructuring resulting with roughly 130 employees departing in the first quarter.Imperial Oil also returned C$350 million to shareholders during the quarter via dividends. Its capital spending reached C$478 million, below RBC's forecast of C$525 million.The company indicated that it does not intend to alter the pace of capital investment this year despite a stronger commodity pricing backdrop.Price: $177.38, Change: $+2.78, Percent Change: +1.59%

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Mining & Metals

Imperial Oil's Q1 Net Income Falls YoY

Imperial Oil's (IMO.TO) net income dropped year over year in the first quarter, the company said Friday.Imperial Oil booked a net income of C$940 million, or $1.94 per share, falling from $1.29 billion, or $2.52 per share, in the year-ago period.Analysts expected Imperial Oil's earnings at $2.30 per share, according to FactSet.Revenue slipped to $12.45 billion from $12.52 billion while expenses increased to $11.21 billion from $10.83 billion.Upstream production stood at 419,000 gross oil-equivalent barrels per day in the first quarter, rising from 418,000 gross oil-equivalent barrels per day in the year-ago period."Against a backdrop of significant volatility in global commodity markets, we remain committed to our long-standing corporate strategy of maximizing the value of our existing assets while progressing advantaged growth opportunities," Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer John Whelan said.Imperial Oil declared a dividend of $0.87 per share for the second quarter, unchanged from the first quarter. The dividend is payable July 1 to shareholders of record as of June 4.The company plans to renew its normal course issuer bid in June.

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Mining & Metals

Imperial Oil Declares Q2 Dividend of $0.87 Per Share; Unchanged From Q1

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Mining & Metals

Imperial Oil Intends to Renew NCIB in June 2026

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Mining & Metals

Imperial Oil Q1 Net income Per Common Share, Assuming Dilution $1.94

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Mining & Metals

Imperial Oil Q1 Net Income of $940M

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Mining & Metals

CIBC Picks Cenovus, Kelt, Suncor, Tamarack, Tenaz, Whitecap as Its Top Ideas for Canadian Oil Equities

CIBC Capital Markets said Friday its top ideas for Canadian oil equities in the first quarter include Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO), Kelt Exploration (KEL.TO), Suncor Energy (SU.TO), Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO), Tenaz Energy (TNZ.TO) and Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO).CIBC said Canadian oil equities showed strong performance in the first quarter, driven by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.Oil prices and U.S Gulf Coast crack spreads increased by 78% and 200% during the quarter, respectively, helping improve realizations for liquids-focused producers and integrated companies, CIBC said.Due to the oil price spike, CIBC expects meaningful tailwinds for Suncor and Cenovus, while Imperial Oil (IMO.TO) could face a headwind.Higher oil prices could also drive working capital adjustments, which could increase net debt levels for the integrateds, CIBC added.CIBC said Canadian LNG projects look increasingly attractive for supply security amid the Middle East conflict. As a result, CIBC expects the LNG Canada Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims LNG projects to be sanctioned in 2026.Price: $84.28, Change: $+0.59, Percent Change: +0.70%

$CVE.TO$IMO.TO$KEL.TO$SU.TO$TNZ.TO$TVE.TO$WCP.TO
Research

Imperial Oil Maintained at Hold at TPH Ahead of Q1 Results; Price Target at C$150.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Friday maintained its hold rating of the shares of Imperial Oil (IMO.TO, IMO) with a C$150 price target ahead of the oil producer and refiner's first-quarter results."With our pre-earnings model update this week, we increased our Q1'26 CFPS estimate to C$3.39 from our prior C$2.90, now above Street C$2.97 though recent estimates looking more in-line with current TPHe. While MTM factors aided across the board, Upstream stands out as the driver for our improved earnings estimates, with MTM factors for Downstream partially offset by a true up to or assumptions on capture rate," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $178.16, Change: $+0.68, Percent Change: +0.38%

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