IMAX on Track to Reach $1.4 Billion in Box Office Proceeds Despite Headwinds, B. Riley Says
IMAX (IMAX) seems on track to hit $1.4 billion in global box office collections this year despite a series of headwinds, including certain film delays, B. Riley Securities said in a note emailed Monday.IMAX's shares lost 9% year to date through Friday, and have lost 22% from a late-February high, B. Riley Managing Director Drew Crum wrote.The release schedule of local-language films "Peng Hu" and "Once Upon a Time in the Middle East" shifted from Chinese New Year to the summer, according to the research note. The delay is expected to reduce the two movies' contribution to $20 million from $30 million previously projected, Crum said.Meanwhile, Netflix's (NFLX) "Narnia: The Magician's Nephew" got pushed to February next year, and will now no longer be an IMAX exclusive, according to B. Riley. Additional setbacks include CEO Richard Gelfond's medical leave that ended in May.Late last month, IMAX affirmed its 2026 guidance, including $1.4 billion in global box office proceeds."While the margin for error has narrowed, we still see a path to a ($1.4 billion) global box office, a key piece to the company's 2026 guidance," Crum said. "We believe progress towards achieving this financial goal should be evident in the current quarter and (second half), thereby helping to improve investor sentiment and supporting higher share prices going forward."The brokerage pointed to outperformance of second-quarter films "Project Hail Mary" and "Michael" and a potential upside for local-language content among factors driving optimism for 2026.B. Riley estimates annual revenue growth at 8% and 9% in 2026 and 2027, to $444.5 million and $485 million, respectively. Analysts in a FactSet poll expect $442.6 million this year and $472.7 million in 2027.The brokerage maintained its buy rating on IMAX's stock, with a $46 price target.Price: $34.47, Change: $+0.88, Percent Change: +2.60%
