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CaixaBank on Friday raised Portuguese energy company Galp Energia (GALP.LS) to buy from neutral and increased its price target to 21.70 euros from 19.20 euros.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
Berenberg updated its earnings forecasts for Galp Energia (GALP.LS) after the Portuguese energy company reported its first-quarter results."Galp reported a solid set of results for Q126 on 27 April from an operational point of view, and beat consensus EBITDA expectations, although this was offset by some cash flow adjustments in the period. Delivery of the important Bacalhau project (Brazil) appears to be ahead of expectations, and, after a strong Q1 in the refining business, Galp is moving towards confirming the terms of its downstream merger with Moeve. In the earnings call, the company indicated that its 2026 guidance is now likely out of date given the macro backdrop, and that it may update its FY26 outlook in the Q2 results. We leave our Hold rating and EUR20 price target unchanged," the research firm said Wednesday.Against this backdrop, the research firm increased its 2026 EBITDA assumption by 3%, while cutting its cash flow from operations and free cash flow estimates by 4% and 3%, respectively, to account for a recent 320 million-euro renewable acquisition and other liquidity adjustments.Meanwhile, analysts maintained their share repurchase projection for 2026 at 250 million euros, while boosting their 2027 forecast to 455 million euros, which is 10% above consensus. Berenberg's EPS estimates for 2026 through 2028 were also revised upwards.
BofA Global Research affirmed its investment case for Galp Energia (GALP.LS), noting the Portuguese energy company's production growth "begins to bear fruit" in Brazil alongside long-term potential seen in Namibia."Galp's 1Q26 results showcased its first signs of growth, beating on EBITDA by 6%. We expect Bacalhau's continued ramp-up in Brazil to drive FY26e production up 17% Y/Y and c.30% by FY27e (vs FY25). We see discoveries in Namibia as Galp's key point of difference; we estimate these underscore a company reserve life of c.20yrs, which betters most European Integrated Oils. Namibia could represent towards ~100 [thousand barrels per day] net production to Galp by the early 2030s versus Within this context, the research firm trimmed its 2026 and 2028 EPS projections, alongside a 1% cut to its 2026 EBITDA estimate amid lower profitability in industrials and midstream. On the other hand, analysts raised their production forecast by 2% to 130kb/d, aligning with the top range of management's target of 125kb/d to 130kb/d.BofA also continues to expect a 10% free cash flow yield for the year at $93 per barrel Brent price, which analysts believe Galp can sustain through 2028, even at the $75/bbl Brent forecast.
RBC Capital Markets expects Galp Energia (GALP.LS) to raise its profit targets and share buybacks, with the announcement expected around July when it publishes its second-quarter results."Galp looks set to benefit across its businesses from the current environment, with oil production ramping into higher prices, refining margins benefiting from a tight oil products market and its midstream segment supported by wider HH-TTF spreads. We maintain our Outperform rating and EUR22 Price Target," according to a Monday note.Within this context, the research firm sees scope for the Portuguese energy company to double its buyback program to 500 million euros, based on the Brent forecast of $91 per barrel.As part of a model update, analysts also made minor tweaks to their EBITDA and EPS forecasts for full-year 2026 through 2028 following the publication of Galp Energia's first-quarter 2026 update.
RBC Capital Markets revised its forecasts for Galp Energia (GALP.LS) to reflect the Portuguese energy company's strong first-quarter trading update and the research firm's latest commodity price deck."Galp's trading update highlighted production figures above consensus, reflecting strong operational trends and the continued ramp up of Bacalhau," analysts said in a Wednesday note. "In the downstream, Galp's $14.8/bbl refining margin for the quarter reflects the elevated margins in March, although this will be offset in part by hedged volumes, lower volumes earlier in the quarter (weather related) and a negative accounting effect related to timing impacts. We also update our estimates for RBC's Latest Commodity Price Deck which incorporates higher prices for 2026-27 as well as an $80/bbl long term Brent assumption (previously $70/bbl)."As such, the research firm increased its EBIT estimates for Galp Energia's upstream and commercial segments, while that for refining and midstream was reduced. Overall, RBC's first-quarter EBITDA and EBIT projections fell amid one-off impacts, with its group net income forecast down to 304 million euros from 324 million euros, against the consensus of 276 million euros.The stock's outperform rating and price target of 22 euros were affirmed.
Berenberg lowered its first-quarter forecasts for Galp Energia (GALP.LS) after its trading update for the three-month period showed the impact of volatility on the group's "strong" operations."Galp reported its Q1 2026 trading statement on 13 April, highlighting strong upstream production from its assets in Brazil and good performance in the refining business," analysts said Wednesday. "This was offset by non-cash items in the Midstream business and a working capital build, which affect our EBITDA and [cash flow from operations] forecasts respectively. However, we believe these temporary effects should reverse over time as the commodity price environment normalises and view underlying performance in the period as positive."As such, the research firm's estimate for the Portuguese energy company's replacement cost adjusted EBITDA in first-quarter 2026 was reduced by 3%, while the CFFO estimate before and after working capital was raised by 14% and cut by 10%, respectively. The company also revised its adjusted EPS and cash flow per share projections for 2026 to 2028.Moving ahead, analysts now expect focus on Galp's ramp-up operations in Brazil's Bacalhau field, refining margins and the potential benefit from higher US-Europe gas price spreads in its liquefied natural gas business.The stock's hold rating and price target of 20 euros were unchanged, as Berenberg noted Galp's current valuation and "limited" catalysts in the near term.