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RBC Adjusts Estimates for Galp Energia After Q1 Trading Update, Commodity Price Deck Revision

-- RBC Capital Markets revised its forecasts for Galp Energia (GALP.LS) to reflect the Portuguese energy company's strong first-quarter trading update and the research firm's latest commodity price deck.

"Galp's trading update highlighted production figures above consensus, reflecting strong operational trends and the continued ramp up of Bacalhau," analysts said in a Wednesday note. "In the downstream, Galp's $14.8/bbl refining margin for the quarter reflects the elevated margins in March, although this will be offset in part by hedged volumes, lower volumes earlier in the quarter (weather related) and a negative accounting effect related to timing impacts. We also update our estimates for RBC's Latest Commodity Price Deck which incorporates higher prices for 2026-27 as well as an $80/bbl long term Brent assumption (previously $70/bbl)."

As such, the research firm increased its EBIT estimates for Galp Energia's upstream and commercial segments, while that for refining and midstream was reduced. Overall, RBC's first-quarter EBITDA and EBIT projections fell amid one-off impacts, with its group net income forecast down to 304 million euros from 324 million euros, against the consensus of 276 million euros.

The stock's outperform rating and price target of 22 euros were affirmed.

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