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Further Air Travel Slowdown Could Put Aftermarket Spending at Risk, RBC Says
US Markets

Further Air Travel Slowdown Could Put Aftermarket Spending at Risk, RBC Says

A further deceleration in global air travel demand could put aftermarket spending at risk if airlines opt to slash capacity amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Friday.The International Air Transport Association said Thursday that global passenger demand fell 3.4% year over year in April, marking the first annual contraction since the post-pandemic recovery.Excluding the Middle East, which saw a nearly 47% slump, overall demand rose 1.2% last month. Total capacity dropped 2.9%, according to the IATA report.The IATA expects global scheduled seat capacity to fall 1.1% year over year this month, compared with a 0.8% drop seen in April. Middle East capacity is seen tumbling 27% in May, according to the report.Despite some airlines flagging capacity cuts amid elevated oil prices, overall views on the demand backdrop have been "relatively robust," RBC analyst Ken Herbert said in a note to clients."We believe the key focus for investors remains the durability of travel demand as airfares increase, as a further deceleration in demand poses a risk to aftermarket spending if more meaningful capacity cuts materialize," Herbert wrote.Overall, the brokerage continues to be "bullish" on the commercial aftermarket industry this year. RBC continues to recommend FTAI Aviation (FTAI), Heico (HEI), Loar (LOAR) and VSE (VSEC) as "high conviction" stocks for aftermarket exposure, particularly engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul, or MRO, according to the note."We expect more upside potential in engine MRO as we expect it to continue outpacing component MRO growth in 2026, but we appreciate that focus is shifting to 2027," Herbert said. Air carriers are expected to be cautious in retiring legacy engines amid factors such as a lack of new supply, according to the note."We continue to see a tight engine (aftermarket), limited retirements/(used serviceable material), and an unprecedented concentration of value in the engine (aftermarket) relative to the broader aero market," Herbert said. "We remain focused on any potential (aftermarket) parts de-stocking from airlines in 2026, as we have not seen significant de-stocking through 2025."Price: $256.90, Change: $-5.88, Percent Change: -2.24%

$FTAI$HEI$LOAR$VSEC
Insider Trading

Ftai Aviation Insider Sold Shares Worth $61,534,493, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Martin Tuchman, Director, on May 01, 2026, sold 254,260 shares in Ftai Aviation (FTAI) for $61,534,493. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Tuchman has control over a total of 1,243,617 shares of the company, with 193,126 ordinary shares held directly, as well as 210,491 ordinary shares, 800,000 Series C preferred shares and 40,000 Series D preferred shares, which are all controlled indirectly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590364/000159036426000046/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1778022015.xml

$FTAI
US Markets

Airline Capacity Deployment Slowdown Amid High Fuel Prices Could Hit Aircraft Lessors, Deutsche Bank Says

Aircraft lessors could be impacted by a projected slowdown in airline capacity deployment globally amid elevated jet fuel prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, Deutsche Bank said Monday.Energy prices have soared following the US-Israel war with Iran that has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows.The conflict, which paused following a ceasefire between the US and Iran and later between Israel and Lebanon, has pushed jet fuel prices past $4 a gallon, according to Deutsche Bank."While aircraft lessors are not directly impacted (by high fuel prices) like airlines with higher operating costs, they are indirectly affected by changes in supply and demand for aircraft," Deutsche Bank analyst Shannon Doherty said in a note to clients Monday. "We cannot ignore the fact that surging jet fuel prices will lead to a slowing of global airline capacity deployment, with groundings a possibility among the financially weakest operators."Last week, American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) lowered their full-year earnings projections. United Airlines said at the time it faced headwinds in the first quarter, including a $340 million increase in fuel expense, compared with a year earlier.Qatar Airways recently contacted lessors to potentially defer or reduce rental payments, Deutsche Bank said Monday. If other airlines request similar favors and aircraft lessors opt to provide that relief, new terms will likely be net present value-positive over the longer term for lessors, according to the note.A premium multiple to AerCap Holdings' (AER) book value is "justified" given its diversified asset fleet earning mid-double-digit return on equity, Doherty said. An undersupply of aircraft assets is "structural" and is expected to last through the end of the decade, the brokerage wrote."AerCap represents one of the best ways to play this theme given the high demand for aircraft, its large orderbook, durable earnings, and high visibility into future cash flows given the long duration nature of its lease contracts," Doherty said.Price: $137.95, Change: $-0.14, Percent Change: -0.10%

$AAL$AER$FTAI$UAL