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Research

Citic Securities Initiates Estee Lauder at Add With $101 Price Target

Estee Lauder Companies (EL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $94.61, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Advance Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks rose late Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) adding 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) increasing 0.4%.In sector news, US consumer sentiment declined to a fresh record low in May as people fear that high gasoline prices could erode their purchasing power, University of Michigan said Friday. The main sentiment index tumbled 10% to 44.8 from last month. The consensus in a Bloomberg-compiled poll was for May's print to stay unchanged from a preliminary 48.2 estimate.In corporate news, Ross Stores (ROST) shares climbed 8% after the discount retailer lifted its full-year outlook and reported better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results.Imax (IMAX) shares jumped past 14% after The Wall Street Journal reported the company is exploring a sale and has approached entertainment companies as potential buyers.Estee Lauder (EL) shares rose nearly 12% after the cosmetics company and Puig said late Thursday they have ended discussions over a potential merger.Uber (UBER) is evaluating options for a complete buyout of Delivery Hero, Bloomberg reported. Uber shares were down 2.4%.

$EL$IMAX$ROST$UBER
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Rise in Afternoon Trading

Consumer stocks advanced Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) increasing 0.1% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) adding 0.9%.In sector news, US consumer sentiment declined to a fresh record low in May as people fear that high gasoline prices could erode their purchasing power, University of Michigan said Friday. The main sentiment index tumbled 10% to 44.8 from last month. The consensus in a Bloomberg-compiled poll was for May's print to stay unchanged from a preliminary 48.2 estimate.In corporate news, Ross Stores (ROST) shares climbed past 6% after the discount retailer lifted its full-year outlook and reported better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results.Imax (IMAX) shares jumped 15% after The Wall Street Journal reported the company is exploring a sale and has approached entertainment companies as potential buyers.Estee Lauder (EL) shares rose 9% after the cosmetics company and Puig said late Thursday they have ended discussions over a potential merger.

$EL$IMAX$ROST
Research

Research Alert: El: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion After Puig Brands Merger Talk Ends

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:On Thursday, EL announced it terminated discussions around a potential strategic combination with Puig Brands (PUIG 15 NR). Shares rose 10%, reflecting investor relief over avoided integration risk and balance sheet strain. We share this view. EL can now focus on its 'Beauty Reimagined' turnaround. We raise our PT to $93, applying 31x (from 29x) to our unchanged FY27 EPS of $2.99, supported by reduced deal uncertainty and improved strategic clarity. Our multiple is a discount to EL's 40x five-year average, warranted by turnaround execution risk, and a premium to the 26x S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary index given EL's brand strength. We maintain our Hold opinion, balancing improved execution visibility against a cautious consumer backdrop. EL recently raised organic growth guidance to 3% (from 1-3%) due to DTC momentum, but we remain watchful of trade-down risk among middle-income consumers toward mass-market alternatives. Near-term, we look for margin progression and China recovery as key catalysts.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Rise Pre-Bell Friday

Consumer stocks were rising pre-bell Friday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) 0.2% higher and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) up 0.4%.Estee Lauder (EL) shares were up more than 12% after the company and Puig said they have ended discussions over a potential merger.BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) stock was down more than 4% after the company reported a decline in fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings.Yum China Holdings (YUMC) said its KFC light-meal business KPRO, now operates more than 300 sites in China. Shares of Yum China Holdings were down more than 1% premarket.

$BJ$EL$XLP$XLY$YUMC
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were rising pre-bell Friday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) up 0.4%.Estee Lauder (EL) shares were up more than 11% after the company and Puig said they have ended discussions over a potential merger.

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International

US Equity Markets Lower After Treasury Yield Hike, Chances of Policy Rate Increase, President Trump's Threat to Hit Iran Again

US equity indexes end lower on Tuesday after the 30-year treasury yield hit a near two-decade high, the chances of an interest rate hike increased and President Donald Trump threatened to resume strikes if Iran fails to reach a peace deal.* President Trump warned strikes would resume on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war, after he said he had just called off a US attack, Bloomberg reported.* The probability of a 25 basis-point increase in US interest rates in December was at over 40% from 1% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool Tuesday.* Redbook US same-store sales rose by 8.1% from a year earlier in the week ended May 16 after a 9.6% year-over-year increase in the previous week.* June West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell $0.07 to settle at $108.59 per barrel, while July Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen down $0.85 at $111.25.* The Kroger (KR) shares were up about 3.4%, the biggest gainer on the S&P 500, after the company said it has been included among the 2026 Axios Harris Poll 100, an annual ranking of the most visible companies in the US.* Estee Lauder (EL) remains in talks with Puig over a potential business combination, though there's no announcement to make yet, Reuters reported, citing Estee Lauder CEO Stephane de La Faverie. Estee Lauder shares were down 5.4%, the steepest decliner on the S&P 500.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$EL$KR
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Tuesday afternoon with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) increasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 1.1%.In sector news, Redbook US same-store sales last week rose 8.1% from a year earlier after a 9.6% increase in the previous week. "Coming off last-minute Mother's Day shopping on Sunday, sales and traffic slowed across the board in the middle of the week, but picked up during the weekend as graduation, BBQ season, and warm weather approached," Redbook said.In corporate news, Estee Lauder (EL) remains in talks with Puig over a potential business combination, though there's no announcement to make yet, Reuters reported, citing Estee Lauder CEO Stephane de La Faverie. Estee Lauder shares fell 5.4%.Home Depot (HD) reported fiscal Q1 results above market expectations despite consumer uncertainty, while the home improvement retailer reiterated its full-year outlook.The shares rose 0.7%.Wall Street banks started a debt sale on behalf of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) comprised of a $5 billion dollar loan and a 1 billion euro ($1.16 billion) loan, Bloomberg reported. Warner Bros. shares were little changed.Amer Sports (AS) raised its full-year guidance after the Finnish sports equipment company reported better-than-expected Q1 results. Amer shares climbed 1.8%.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were mixed late Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) increasing 0.1% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 1.1%.In corporate news, Estee Lauder (EL) remains in talks with Puig over a potential business combination, though there's no announcement to make yet, Reuters reported, citing Estee Lauder Chief Executive Stephane de La Faverie. Estee Lauder shares fell 5.3%.

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Wire

Top Midday Decliners

Estee Lauder (EL) remains in talks with Puig over a potential business combination, though there's no announcement to make yet, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing Estee Lauder Chief Executive Stephane de La Faverie.Shares dropped 4.5%, with intraday trading volume rising to over 2.26 million from a daily average of about 4.44 million.XP (XP) shares slumped more than 5% after the company reported Q1 results that fell short of analyst expectations.More than 8.26 million shares traded intraday, compared with a daily average of about 5.67 million.MakeMyTrip (MMYT) shares were down about 10% following its fiscal Q4 results.More than 1.12 million shares of the company traded intraday, compared with a daily average of about 1.43 million.Price: $76.12, Change: $-3.90, Percent Change: -4.87%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Advance Premarket Friday

Consumer stocks were advancing premarket Friday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) 0.4% higher.Interface (TILE) shares were up nearly 11% after the company posted higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and net sales, and raised its fiscal 2026 outlook.Wendy's (WEN) stock was up more than 4% after the company reported Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations, with revenue increasing year over year.Zara has denied infringing Estee Lauder's (EL) Jo Malone trademark in an infringement case, Reuters reported, citing a court filing. Estee Lauder shares were 0.8% higher pre-bell.

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Wire

DBS Bank Adjusts Price Target on Estee Lauder to $88 From $100

Estee Lauder (EL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $93.19, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $85.76, Change: $-0.91, Percent Change: -1.05%

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Wire

Estee Lauder's Turnaround Continues, Middle East Headwinds Remain, RBC Says

Estee Lauder's (EL) turnaround continues, but headwinds from the Middle East conflict could still weigh on fiscal Q4 results, RBC Capital Markets said in a Monday note.Estee Lauder reported fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings of $0.91 per diluted share, up from $0.65 a year earlier, as net sales increased to $3.71 billion from $3.55 billion. The company also raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to between $2.35 and $2.45, from $2.05 to $2.25 previously.Business disruptions from the Middle East conflict are estimated to have a negative impact of $0.07 to the company's fiscal 2026 EPS and $0.06 dilutive to fiscal Q4 EPS, the investment firm said. RBC noted that Estee Lauder's updated outlook "assumes no deterioration" in the Middle East beyond May, along with current market conditions.The guidance is still "reasonable" and positions Estee Lauder to hit its targets, RBC added.RBC Capital Markets has an outperform rating and $111 price target on Estee Lauder.Price: $81.35, Change: $+2.05, Percent Change: +2.59%

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Wire

Update: Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on Estee Lauder to $90 From $85, Keeps Equalweight Rating

(Updates with the analyst's commentary.)Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Estee Lauder (EL) to $90 from $85 while maintaining its equalweight rating.The brokerage said in a Monday note it is "encouraged" by Organic Sales Growth and with "a faster margin recovery" but held back by OSG concentration and "skepticism around a potential Puig deal."Morgan Stanley said OSG results are "China driven" and while emerging markets and online continue to outperform, growth is "limited" outside these areas, with The Americas experiencing a flat OSG.The brokerage said it questions whether acquiring beauty firm Puig is "worth the opportunity cost," given the company's complexity and "the cultural risk of merging two family-run companies" while Estee Lauder is itself "undergoing a complex initial restructuring."Estee Lauder has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $96.82, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $80.95, Change: $+1.65, Percent Change: +2.08%

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Wire

Estee Lauder's Turnaround Progressing, Puig Deal Complicates Narrative, Morgan Stanley Says

Estee Lauder's (EL) turnaround of its base business is progressing well and the company is seeing sufficient improvement in its organic sales growth to confirm the high end of its previous full-year sales range, Morgan Stanley said in a note emailed Monday with a review of the company's fiscal Q3 results.Also, the company's Q3 earnings per share upside backed an increase in its 2026 guidance, as well as a strong early 2027 outlook, even amid the pressure caused by the conflict in Iran, the note said.Morgan Stanley said, however, Estee Lauder's assumption that the prestige beauty business will accelerate in 2027 may be optimistic, adding the company was "incentivized to put its best foot forward ahead of potential equity in a Puig deal."There are some questions on "whether the execution/cultural risk of a large acquisition is worth the opportunity cost [versus Estee Lauder's] base business turnaround despite sizeable potential EPS accretion," the note said.The investment firm noted Puig is a complex target due to its big size, fragmented brand/geographic exposure, and the cultural risk of combining family-run companies."We remain on the sidelines here, waiting to see how strategic discussions play out, and looking for more confidence in sustained" Estee Lauder organic sales growth, the note said.Morgan Stanley kept its equal-weight rating on Estee Lauder and increased the company's price target to $90 from $85.Price: $82.07, Change: $+2.77, Percent Change: +3.49%

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Estee Lauder Companies Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Following stronger-than-expected FQ3 results, we lower our 12-month target by $10 to $87. This is based on 29x our FY 27 EPS estimate (rolled forward from 45x FY 26), a discount to shares' 39x three-year average forward multiple. We raise our FY 26 EPS estimate to $2.22 from $2.16 and FY 27's to $2.99 from $2.73. EL posted better gross margins (+140 bps) despite tariff costs and improved operating margins (+360 bps). Management also offered a constructive view on FY 27 operating margins, implying a 190 bps improvement at the midpoint. While these results were ahead of consensus, we highlight cost cuts as the primary driver, particularly point-of-sale headcount reductions. At current levels, shares trade at a premium to the overall market, limiting upside unless there is a recovery in EL's China market and legacy brand stabilization. This is offset by robust FQ3 organic growth in the Fragrance segment (+10%) and a higher FY 26 organic growth guide (+3%). We see balanced risk/reward at current valuation levels.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rising 0.6%.In sector news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure sufficient support from certain bondholders and the federal government for a $500 million lifeline, The Wall Street Journal reported. As a result, the airline is preparing to cease operations, the report said.In corporate news, Colgate-Palmolive (CL) shares rose 1.8% after the company reported Q1 results that topped analysts' expectations.The United Auto Workers union intends to hold a vote next week over whether to strike at a Stellantis (STLA) pickup truck factory in Suburban Detroit, Bloomberg reported, citing a UAW podcast. Stellantis shares were down 1.6%.Newell Brands (NWL) raised its 2026 sales outlook, crediting tax refunds, operational improvements, and better-than-expected consumer demand. Its shares jumped past 9%.Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program. Its shares rose 2.4%.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Friday Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rising 0.7%.In sector news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure sufficient support from certain bondholders and the federal government for a $500 million lifeline, The Wall Street Journal reported. As a result, the airline is preparing to cease operations, the report said.In corporate news, Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program. Its shares rose 3.2%.Newell Brands (NWL) raised its 2026 sales outlook, crediting tax refunds, operational improvements, and better-than-expected consumer demand. Its shares jumped past 9%.Harley-Davidson (HOG) is recalling about 88,039 motorcycles in the US due to a defect involving the airbox backplate breather port, Reuters reported Friday, citing a statement from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The company's shares were up 1.9%.

$EL$HOG$NWL
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were mixed Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rising 0.7%.In corporate news, Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program. Its shares rose 3.5%.

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US Markets

Estee Lauder Raises Earnings Outlook; Plans to Lay Off Additional Staff

Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program.Adjusted earnings are anticipated to come in between $2.35 and $2.45 per share for fiscal 2026, up from the company's prior guidance of $2.05 to $2.25. The current consensus on FactSet is for non-GAAP EPS of $2.23.The owner of beauty brands such as MAC expects sales to grow by 4%, compared with its previous outlook that called for an increase of 3% to 5%. Organic sales are pegged to rise by 3%, the high end of its previously issued forecast.Strong year-to-date results and "disciplined cost management" gives the company confidence in raising its fiscal 2026 outlook, Chief Financial Officer Akhil Shrivastava said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript.The stock was up 6.3% in Friday trade, reducing its year-to-date loss to 22%.Estee Lauder, which is in talks to merge with Spanish beauty company Puig, said it now aims to eliminate 9,000 to 10,000 positions, up from its previous target of eliminating 5,800 to 7,000 roles. More than 70% of the increase is attributable to reduced department store staff roles as Estee Lauder taps into digital channels, Chief Executive Stephane de La Faverie told analysts.The company expanded the scope of its restructuring program in April to include additional initiatives, de La Faverie said.Estee Lauder expects pretax restructuring charges of between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion, compared with $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion previously projected. The restructuring program is now projected to generate annual gross benefits of $1 billion to $1.2 billion.For the fiscal third quarter that ended in March, Estee Lauder's adjusted EPS jumped to $0.91 from last year's $0.65, which was the average analyst estimate on FactSet for the 2026 quarter. Sales improved 5% to $3.71 billion, ahead of the Street's view for $3.69 billion.Revenue in the skin care business rose 3% to $1.86 billion, while makeup increased 4% to $1.07 billion. Fragrance sales climbed 13%.The company said that business disruptions in the Middle East stemming from the US-Israel war with Iran are projected to have a greater impact on its fourth-quarter results versus the prior three-month period, which benefited from shipments made before the conflict began.Estee Lauder estimates EPS to take a $0.06 hit in the current quarter and sales to be dragged down by 2%.Energy prices have soared as the Iran war curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The war paused following a recent ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, but a framework for a permanent truce is yet to be reached.The company's preliminary view is that fiscal 2027 sales would rise by 3% to 5%.Price: $81.37, Change: $+4.66, Percent Change: +6.07%

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