Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Capital Power Corp At Buy On Steady Guidance Through Heavy Spend
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We maintain CPX at a 4-STARS (Buy) and lower the 12-month target price to CAD70, based on a 10.5x forward EBITDA multiple applied to our 2027 EBITDA estimate. Its GW growth story comes with a cost, which CPX experienced in Q1. While revenues climbed 22% to CAD1,205M and power generation jumped 20% to 11,468 GWh - fueled by the June 2025 acquisitions of Hummel Station and Rolling Hills - bottom-line metrics are feeling the weight of heavy reinvestment. Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% to CAD404M, but AFFO dropped 29% to CAD154M. Sustaining capex tripled in Q1 compared to the prior-year period, and outage days of 40% in 2026, while already communicated to the markets, is now being seen in the fundamentals. However, 2026 guidance was maintained, with CAD890M-CAD1,010M in AFFO and CAD1,565M-CAD1,765M in adjusted EBITDA expected.
