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Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Capital Power Corp At Buy On Steady Guidance Through Heavy Spend

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We maintain CPX at a 4-STARS (Buy) and lower the 12-month target price to CAD70, based on a 10.5x forward EBITDA multiple applied to our 2027 EBITDA estimate. Its GW growth story comes with a cost, which CPX experienced in Q1. While revenues climbed 22% to CAD1,205M and power generation jumped 20% to 11,468 GWh - fueled by the June 2025 acquisitions of Hummel Station and Rolling Hills - bottom-line metrics are feeling the weight of heavy reinvestment. Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% to CAD404M, but AFFO dropped 29% to CAD154M. Sustaining capex tripled in Q1 compared to the prior-year period, and outage days of 40% in 2026, while already communicated to the markets, is now being seen in the fundamentals. However, 2026 guidance was maintained, with CAD890M-CAD1,010M in AFFO and CAD1,565M-CAD1,765M in adjusted EBITDA expected.

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