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Wire

Chipotle Mexican Grill Could Expand Margins as Soon as Q4, RBC Says

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) could expand restaurant-level margins as soon as Q4 amid improving growth drivers, RBC Capital Markets said in a Thursday note.The company's Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue topped analysts' expectations, as did same-store sales of 2.2%, and management raised full-year guidance, the investment firm said.According to RBC, the raised guidance is still relatively conservative as the midpoint implies no acceleration from Q3 to Q4. But improving underlying comps, and stabilizing inflation are likely to accelerate margin expansion to Q4, the investment firm added.Other catalysts include deployment of new equipment packages, the new digital make line interface, and the planned national launch of catering services in 2027, according to the note.RBC maintained an outperform rating and $45 price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill.Shares of the company were up more than 12% in Thursday trading.Price: $38.47, Change: $+4.23, Percent Change: +12.34%

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Wire

Chipotle Offers 'Actionable' Long Idea, Oppenheimer Says

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is offering an "actionable" long idea with an improving setup heading into Q2 earnings on July 29, Oppenheimer said in a note Monday.The stock is entering the rear-view with an attractive opportunity after being stuck in a cycle of negative earnings revision for six straight quarters, the report said."We also identify a catalytic path to mid-single-digit SSS trends exiting 2026 amid better traffic traction, new tangible comp drivers, and more impactful pricing strategy," the note said.For Q2, Chipotle is expected to deliver a "solid" all around beat, the note said, expecting the company to maintain a conservative stance on communicating full-year guidance.Oppenheimer kept its outperform rating and $51 price target.Price: $36.36, Change: $+1.11, Percent Change: +3.15%

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Wire

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Sales, Margins Expected to Improve in H2, UBS Says

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) should see stronger sales, customer traffic and restaurant margins in H2, helped by higher prices, new menu items, marketing, digital tools, better operations and easier comparisons, UBS said in a note Friday.Chipotle Mexican Grill is scheduled to release its Q2 financial results on July 29.UBS expects Q2 same-store sales growth of 1.2%, close to the 1.3% consensus estimate, as menu launches and promotions helped offset pressure on consumer spending as sales trends are expected to strengthen further in Q3 and Q4, although lower-income, younger and Hispanic customers may remain under financial pressure.Limited-time menu items, a relaunched rewards program, catering growth and more efficient restaurant equipment could help lift customer visits and spending, UBS said, adding that it sees possible upside if same-store sales growth reaches about 2% to 3% in H2, while new restaurant openings remain in the high-single-digit range.Q2 restaurant margins are expected to fall to 25% because of higher beef, dairy and avocado costs, but the investment firm sees margins improving later in the year as inflation slows and pricing increases.UBS kept its buy rating and $45 price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill.Price: $35.67, Change: $+1.07, Percent Change: +3.09%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) up 1.9% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) falling 2.1%.In corporate news, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares were up 4.1% in Friday trading after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral.Lululemon Athletica's (LULU) weak product assortment and soft traffic trends won't be resolved anytime soon, making any pullback following its disappointing Q1 results a poor buying opportunity, UBS Securities said Friday. Lululemon shares fell 7.5%.J.M. Smucker's (SJM) fiscal Q4 results and fiscal 2027 guidance are expected to be generally in line with expectations, RBC Capital Markets said in a Friday note. J.M. Smucker shares rose 2.7%.Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) expanded its membership program at six more parks beginning June 8, the company said Friday. Shares of Six Flags were down 1.9%.

$CMG$FUN$LULU$SJM
Wire

Chipotle Mexican Grill Shares Rise After JPMorgan Upgrade

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares were up more than 4% in Friday trading after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral.Trading volume stood at over 23.5 million shares, against a daily average of roughly 16.9 million.Price: $29.56, Change: $+1.38, Percent Change: +4.88%

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Research

JPMorgan Upgrades Chipotle Mexican Grill to Overweight From Neutral, Adjusts PT to $35 From $38

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $42.82, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

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Wire

Chipotle Mexican Grill Narrative Not Likely to Change Quickly, Morgan Stanley Says

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) narrative is not likely to change quickly and its sales drivers are less impactful, Morgan Stanley said in a note Wednesday."The stock has lagged, but we don't see the narrative changing;lower multiple vs history seems appropriate," the note said.Morgan Stanley downgraded Chipotle to equal-weight from overweight and cut its price target to $37 from $49.The note said the overweight rating was based on structural tailwinds, new sales drivers after a slow 2025, leading unit growth, margin recovery, and tech benefits."Most of these have underwhelmed vs our expectations," it said.The report said the downgrade is also reflecting the dominant investor view that CMG likely faces a future of more modest comps and margin expansion."CMG remains on-trend - it is not a structural loser, andsomething we'd look to recommend again, but this does seem like a new phase of its lifecycle," the note said.Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley upgraded Yum! Brands (YUM) to overweight from equal-weight and lifted its price target to $185 from $180.The report said Yum! has the best growth profile among major franchised quick service restaurant companies and solid brands are undervalued.Price: $28.70, Change: $-0.57, Percent Change: -1.93%

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Research

Morgan Stanley Downgrades Chipotle Mexican Grill to Equalweight From Overweight, Adjusts PT to $37 From $49

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $43.06, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

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Research

Argus Upgrades Chipotle Mexican Grill to Buy From Hold, Price Target is $40

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $43.83, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Reiterates Buy Opinion On Shares Of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We keep our 12-month target price at $44, 35x our 2026 EPS estimate, a discount to shares' 50x five-year average, reflecting a lower comparable sales growth profile. We raise our 2026 EPS estimate to $1.26 (from $1.25) and lower 2027's to $1.45 (from $1.46). Following encouraging Q1 results, we reiterate our Buy opinion. CMG posted comparable sales growth of 0.5%, including transaction growth of 0.6%, which highlights the company's focus on value perception with U.S. consumers. We are encouraged by comparable sales growth stabilization following declines in 2025, suggesting the company's structural growth profile remains intact. Further evidence of structural growth catalysts includes new store growth (+49 in Q1) and a pipeline of limited-time offerings and incremental add-ons (such as its cilantro lime sauce) gaining traction and boosting revenue without increasing menu prices. Though this strategy will pressure restaurant margins (-250 bps in Q1), we think this is beneficial for long-term growth.

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Wire

JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Chipotle Mexican Grill to $38 From $40

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $43.80, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $34.34, Change: $+1.35, Percent Change: +4.09%

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Wire

Piper Sandler Adjusts Price Target on Chipotle Mexican Grill to $42 From $44

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $43.80, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $34.21, Change: $+1.22, Percent Change: +3.70%

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Wire

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Price Target on Chipotle Mexican Grill to $44 From $43

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $43.80, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $34.24, Change: $+1.25, Percent Change: +3.77%

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Wire

Barclays Adjusts Price Target on Chipotle Mexican Grill to $38 From $40

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $43.80, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $34.24, Change: $+1.25, Percent Change: +3.77%

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Wire

Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Chipotle Mexican Grill to $46 From $44

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $43.80, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $34.24, Change: $+1.25, Percent Change: +3.77%

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Wire

BNP Paribas Adjusts Price Target on Chipotle Mexican Grill to $39 From $37

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $43.80, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $34.24, Change: $+1.25, Percent Change: +3.77%

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Research

Research Alert: Cmg: Transaction Growth Returns; Margins Under Pressure

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:CMG posted Q1 EPS of $0.24, down 17% but in line with consensus, while revenue of $3.09B (+7.4%) beat the $3.06B consensus. Comparable sales growth of +0.5% beat an expected decline of 0.8%, led by +0.6% in transactions. In our view, maintaining steady transaction growth is more important than enduring near-term margin pressure, as this suggests CMG remains a relevant option for consumers despite tariff impacts. Management left its guidance unchanged, expecting flat comparable store sales growth in 2026 and projecting 350-370 new store openings. Restaurant-level margins contracted 250 bps on higher labor expenses (+10.5%) and food costs (+8.6%), reflecting the trade-off of limiting pricing to drive traffic. Digital mix improved to 38.6% and CMG opened 49 new stores. The company repurchased $700.8M of stock while generating healthy FCF of $471M (+14%). We believe CMG is being conservative given macro volatility. With loyalty initiatives in the pipeline, we think sequential transaction improvement is possible.

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Wire

Chipotle Mexican Grill Will Likely Deliver Q1 Sales and Margin Beat, UBS Says

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) will likely deliver a sales and margin beat relative to guidance and consensus in Q1, while reporting moderate same-store-sales growth given the still challenged consumer sentiment, weather, and broader macro headwinds, UBS Securities said in a note Monday.The brokerage said it expects management to maintain largely conservative guidance, including for a modest improvement in Q2 same-store-sales growth, while full year comparable sales targets remain nearly flat.UBS believes Q1 same-store-sales softness was likely driven by macro pressures and weather impacts, with some benefit from the Chicken Al Pastor launch, but with the lap of Honey Chicken a possible headwind in March, according to the note.While macro challenges persist in 2026, UBS said it expects trends to improve through the year, driven by menu innovation, marketing collaborations, an emphasis on protein, digital initiatives, the high-efficiency equipment package rollout, build-your-own Chipotle platform, and the catering pilot.Margins should improve in the second half as inflation eases, prices grow, and the inflation gap improves, according to the note. The brokerage models Q1 EPS of $0.25 and 2026 EPS of $1.18.The company is scheduled to report Q1 results on Wednesday.UBS maintained a buy rating on Chipotle with a price target of $45.Price: $33.81, Change: $-0.41, Percent Change: -1.18%

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US Markets

Restaurant Trends Likely Slowed to Exit First Quarter, UBS Says

Strong underlying trends across the US restaurant sector likely slowed toward the end of the first quarter, with an uncertain and a weak consumer environment expected to drive conservative guidance, UBS Securities said in a note on Monday."We expect (first-quarter) results to highlight generally solid underlying trends across much of the sector, but anticipate slower trends to exit the quarter and into (the second quarter so far)," UBS analyst Dennis Geiger said in the note.Management commentary will be a key focus given the impact of holiday calendar shifts, tax rebates and elevated gas prices, Geiger said. Energy prices have spiked because of the US-Israel war with Iran that has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route."We anticipate still generally conservative (2026) guidance given above (average) uncertainty in the industry backdrop," Geiger wrote.US consumer sentiment improved from an initial April estimate, but remained at a record low as near-term inflation expectations logged the biggest monthly increase in a year, final University of Michigan survey results showed Friday."Sentiment is unlikely to improve unless supply constraints are lifted or energy costs decline," according to the UBS note.Retail sales at restaurants and bars almost stalled sequentially in March, government data showed last week.Results across restaurants should largely be positive, especially when excluding the impacts of weather conditions, but "performance bifurcation among brands should remain reasonably wide again" during this reporting cycle, Geiger wrote.Starbucks' (SBUX) investors expect the company to lift its US same store sales target for this year following a second-quarter beat, according to UBS. Wingstop (WING) is seen lowering its comparable sales outlook after reporting a bigger-than-expected decline in the first quarter.The outlook for Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) will likely be maintained.Price: $98.64, Change: $-0.03, Percent Change: -0.03%

$CAKE$CMG$SBUX$WING
Wire

Restaurant Stocks Trail Market Amid Soft Demand, Early Q2 Volatility, BofA Says

Restaurant stocks are trailing the broader market as Q2 gets underway, with rising gasoline prices and softer demand weighing on the group, BofA Securities said Friday in a report.Same-store sales improved in Q1 despite adverse weather, while early April trends are difficult to interpret because Easter fell earlier this year, typically slowing restaurant traffic, the report said.Higher fuel costs are squeezing budgets and margins after investors had expected stronger spending helped by tax refunds, BofA said. Restaurants showing steady customer traffic and clear earnings momentum should stand out, the report said.In coverage of 19 companies, BofA cut its price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock to $50 from $53, citing adjustments to its long-term earnings model tied to recent stock volatility. The company remains a strong brand with meaningful long-term earnings potential, the report said.BofA raised its price target on Starbucks (SBUX) stock to $130 from $120. The coffee chain is working to improve store operations and customer service, and these efforts could help stabilize results and support a recovery as the year progresses, the report said.BofA boosted its price target on Restaurant Brands International (QSR) stock to $74 from $63, pointing to improvements across its major chains. Better marketing and store upgrades, particularly at Burger King, may help drive steadier sales, the report said.Chipotle shares rose 0.5% in Friday trading, Starbucks fell 0.6%, and Restaurant Brands eased 0.1%.Price: $34.10, Change: $+0.20, Percent Change: +0.58%

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