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Wire

Mosaic, Other Fertilizer Stocks Fall as Trump Says US Working on Potash Deal With Belarus

Mosaic (MOS) and other key fertilizer stocks fell Monday after US President Donald Trump said he is working on a "massive deal" to buy potash from Belarus."The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers," Trump wrote on Truth Social.Shares of Mosaic fell past 2% in recent market trading activity, while CF Industries (CF) declined more than 1%. Nutrien (NTR) lost more than 3%.Price: $24.32, Change: $-0.16, Percent Change: -0.65%

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Research

KeyBanc Initiates CF Industries Holdings at Underweight With $115 Price Target

CF Industries Holdings (CF) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $124.43, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

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Wire

Rothschild & Co Redburn Adjusts CF Industries PT to $98 From $100, Maintains Sell Rating

CF Industries Holdings (CF) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $124.82, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $119.43, Change: $-2.06, Percent Change: -1.69%

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Wire

CF Industries to Benefit From Strong Nitrogen Prices, Cash Flow Amid US-Iran Risks, RBC Says

CF Industries (CF) could benefit from firm nitrogen prices, tight global supply, strong cash flow and ongoing cost improvements, though the US-Iran conflict could keep near-term results volatile, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Monday.The investment firm expects nitrogen prices to stay high in the near term as Middle East supply remains limited, with further upside possible if tensions rise or demand improves in H2. RBC said US NOLA urea prices are expected at $489 per ton in 2026 and $413 per ton in 2027, compared with $399 per ton in 2025.CF's efforts to improve margins, including higher-value low-carbon ammonia sales and changes at its Courtright and Yazoo City facilities, could support earnings over time, according to the note.The investment firm expects strong cash flow in 2026 to give the company room for larger stock buybacks, while cash generation should remain solid from 2027 through 2029 as spending increases on the Blue Point project, which remains on track to begin construction in August, with required permits received in July and most long-lead items ordered, while modular construction is limiting labor-cost risks.RBC kept its sector perform rating and $115 price target, saying it remains constructive on CF's longer-term outlook but expects near-term risks from the US-Iran conflict and potential downward earnings estimate revisions.Price: $118.15, Change: $+3.80, Percent Change: +3.32%

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Wire

BNP Paribas Adjusts CF Industries Price Target to $120 From $130

CF Industries Holdings (CF) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $124.54, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $115.01, Change: $-1.72, Percent Change: -1.47%

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Wire

UBS Adjusts Price Target on CF Industries to $123 From $115, Maintains Neutral Rating

CF Industries Holdings (CF) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $124.54, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $113.19, Change: $-3.55, Percent Change: -3.04%

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Wire

CF Industries Shares Rise After Scotiabank Upgrade

CF Industries (CF) shares were up 3% in Tuesday trading after Scotiabank upgraded its rating on the company's stock to sector outperform from sector perform and adjusted its price target to $125 from $120.Trading volume stood at over 1.3 million shares, compared with a daily average of about 3.3 million.Price: $108.52, Change: $+3.12, Percent Change: +2.96%

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Research

Scotiabank Upgrades CF Industries to Sector Outperform From Sector Perform, Adjusts PT to $125 From $120

CF Industries Holdings (CF) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $128.09, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

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Wire

HSBC Cuts CF Industries Price Target to $121 From $130

CF Industries (CF) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $129.54, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $105.82, Change: $+0.22, Percent Change: +0.21%

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Wire

CF Industries Positioned for Strong Cash Generation in 2026, RBC Says

CF Industries (CF) is positioned for strong cash generation in 2026 as it continues to benefit from high nitrogen prices driven by the supply disruption caused by the Iran war, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Friday.Nitrogen prices are likely to remain inflated, even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and could start to normalize in 2027, the investment firm said. This is expected to drive the company's free cash flow generation to $2.5 billion this year, and potentially push share buybacks throughout 2026, RBC added.The nitrogen market's current conditions also present an improved return profile for the company's Blue Point low-carbon ammonia joint venture in Louisiana, which is expected to enter construction phase this year, the firm said.RBC has a sector perform rating on CF Industries, with a $125 price target.Shares of CF Industries were up 6.8% in Monday trading.Price: $122.82, Change: $+7.80, Percent Change: +6.78%

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Lifts Opinion On Shares Of Cf Industries Holdings Inc. To Hold From Sell

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month target by $21 to $122, based on an EV/EBITDA of 7x our 2027 EBITDA estimate (rolled forward from 7.9x our 2026 EBITDA estimate). We raise our 2026 EPS view to $13.31 from $9.13 and 2027's to $9.20 from $7.33. Consensus EBITDA estimates for 2026 were revised 70% higher to $4.25B, up from $2.5B in March, implying 40% Y/Y growth driven by significant price increases across ammonia, urea, UAN, and AN due to conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. Our Hold rating reflects this favorable set up that is now priced into shares. CF trades at 5x 2026 EBITDA, well below its 10-year median of 8.7x, suggesting the market views current earnings as a cyclical peak. The multiple expands to 8x on lower 2027 estimates, indicating investors are already discounting normalization. Our 31% Y/Y EPS decline for 2027 anticipates margin pressure as elevated prices could introduce demand destruction and trigger global capacity additions. Our 7x target multiple balances today's trough valuation against cycle-end risks.

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Wire

UBS Adjusts CF Industries Price Target to $130 From $140

CF Industries Holdings (CF) has an average rating of Hold and mean price target of $122.67, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $118.74, Change: $+0.06, Percent Change: +0.05%

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Research

Research Alert: Cf: Gross Margins Miss Despite Commodity Price Surge Due To Plant Outage

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:CF Industries delivered strong Q1 results with EPS of $3.98 versus $1.85 in the prior year and above the $2.66 consensus, while adjusted EBITDA rose 53% to $983M, beating $774M consensus. Net sales increased 19% to $1.99B, exceeding $1.86B consensus, as robust pricing across all segments offset lower volumes from the Yazoo City outage. Exceptional operational execution with 99% ammonia capacity utilization and strategic positioning in a constrained global nitrogen market support the investment thesis. Management projects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of ~9.5M tons, with Yazoo City resumption not expected until late Q4 2026. We expect the tight global supply-demand balance to persist given Middle East conflict disruptions affecting 50%-60% of regional capacity and LNG supply constraints impacting import-dependent regions. CF's low-carbon initiatives, including the Blue Point joint venture and Yazoo City CCS project, provide structural advantages for long-term value creation.

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Wire

Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on CF Industries to $135 From $95, Maintains Equalweight Rating

CF Industries (CF) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $122.06, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $123.37, Change: $-0.26, Percent Change: -0.21%

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