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Research Alert: Cf: Gross Margins Miss Despite Commodity Price Surge Due To Plant Outage

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

CF Industries delivered strong Q1 results with EPS of $3.98 versus $1.85 in the prior year and above the $2.66 consensus, while adjusted EBITDA rose 53% to $983M, beating $774M consensus. Net sales increased 19% to $1.99B, exceeding $1.86B consensus, as robust pricing across all segments offset lower volumes from the Yazoo City outage. Exceptional operational execution with 99% ammonia capacity utilization and strategic positioning in a constrained global nitrogen market support the investment thesis. Management projects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of ~9.5M tons, with Yazoo City resumption not expected until late Q4 2026. We expect the tight global supply-demand balance to persist given Middle East conflict disruptions affecting 50%-60% of regional capacity and LNG supply constraints impacting import-dependent regions. CF's low-carbon initiatives, including the Blue Point joint venture and Yazoo City CCS project, provide structural advantages for long-term value creation.

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