ASX:TWE

Treasury Wine Estates Faces Mixed Conditions in China Market, Jefferies Says

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) is facing mixed conditions in the Chinese market, with strong demand for luxury wine contrasting with inventory challenges for its Penfolds business in China, Jefferies said in a note on Wednesday.According to data from Australia's wine regulator, luxury wine export volume rose 36% in the June quarter, marking the strongest quarter since wine tariffs on Australian wine were removed in China in 2024.However, the wine producer has suspended new orders for its popular label Penfolds Bin 407 in the Asian country from July 1 until the end of Sept. This is expected to negatively impact China wine exports in the third quarter.The move likely suggests management is actively trying to reduce excess inventory in China while protecting the Penfolds brand from discounted grey-market sales, the firm said.Jefferies maintained its hold rating and a price target of AU$5 on Treasury Wine Estates.

Treasury Wine Estates Faces Limited Impact from RNDC Wind Down, Jefferies Says

Treasury Wine Estates' (ASX:TWE) exposure to RNDC's "not surprising" wind down is expected to be modest after its distribution services were reduced since last year, Jefferies said in a note on Tuesday.The investment firm said the limited impact could result in any claim against Treasury Wine Estates being less than $1.6 million, as RNDC currently distributes the winemaker's products in only five states compared with more than 20 States last year following its exit from California.In contrast to RNDC, Breakthru is performing better, while Reyes has strong interest in growing its wine distribution business.The brokerage sees value in Treasury Wine Estates but remains cautious due to risks in the US and China markets, including high inventory levels.Jefferies maintained a hold rating and price target of AU$5.00 on Treasury Wine Estates.

Treasury Wine Estates' Premium Red Grape Growing Regions Showed Volume Declines in 2026 Crush, Jefferies Says

Treasury Wine Estates' (ASX:TWE) key premium red grape growing regions showed volume declines in Wine Australia's 2026 national vintage report, Jefferies said in a Wednesday note.While the vintage report showed both the red and white grape crush contracting, white grapes boosted their share of overall volume significantly amid a shift in consumer preferences toward white wines.This dynamic isn't positive for Treasury Wine Estates as the company's brand equity is much stronger in full-bodied red wines, which consumers appear to be moving away from in most markets, the equity research firm said.White varieties represented 53% of total volume crushed, their highest share on record and marking only the second time white grapes accounted for the majority over the last 12 years, the investment firm said.Meanwhile, average grape prices declined 5.6% to hit the lowest level since 2017 despite a significant reduction in supply, as the 2026 grape crush fell 19% year over year. While this could prove helpful for Treasury Wine Estates' cost of goods sold, the decline reflects continued softness in global wine demand, Jefferies said.The investment firm maintained a hold rating on the company with a price target of AU$5.Treasury Wine Estates shares gained over 1% in recent Thursday trade.

Treasury Wine Estates Shares Inch Down After Wine Australia Reported Smallest Crush Since 2000

Treasury Wine Estates' (ASX:TWE) shares inched down in recent trading on Wednesday after Wine Australia said in a same-day report that Australia's 2026 winegrape crush fell to 1.3 million tonnes, the smallest since 2000.The 2026 crush was down 306,334 tonnes, or 19%, from the 2025 national crush and 25% below its 10-year average of 1.7 million tonnes.The crush equates to around 33 million fewer nine-liter cases of wine.The 2026 crush reflected both seasonal pressures, including flooding in the inland regions and a broader response to changed consumer demand, said Peter Bailey, manager of market insights at Wine Australia.

Treasury Wine Estates Continues to Lose Share at All Price Points in US Wine Category, Jefferies Says

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) continues to lose market share across all price points within the US wine category, and faces additional risk given continued US distributor disruption and the company's need to work through material excess channel inventory, Jefferies said in a Tuesday note.The investment firm issued the note after the release of Nielsen US wine category data for the four weeks to June 13, which showed sales in retail channels declining 3.2% year over year.Treasury Wine Estates "sharply underperformed" as its brands fell over 11% in value terms, compared with a 3.2% decline for the broader market, and slid 17.5% in volume terms versus a 5.7% broader market decline, the equity research firm said.The Nielsen data also indicates that the company's luxury portfolio declined 8.2% even as the overall luxury market grew almost 1%, with Treasury Wine's promotional intensity also falling more than the market."Our channel checks suggest distributor disruption is a factor, despite [Treasury Wine Estates'] commentary suggesting that California depletions has returned to growth," Jefferies said.It maintained a hold rating on Treasury Wine with a price target of AU$5.The company's shares gained 2% in recent Wednesday trade.

Treasury Wine Estates' Wind-Down of Non-Core Brands Brings Both Cost, Complexity, Jarden Says

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) has a lot of work to do, particularly around the wind-down of non-core brands, which brings both costand complexity, Jarden said in a Thursday note.It has made short-term decisions to the detriment of the business long-term, Jarden said, compounded by US distributor issues and regulations in China. However, its new Chief Executive is taking decisive action and a customer-led approach, rebuilding trust in the supply chain. The firm seeks to rationalize its portfolio from around 76 brands to fewer than 30.The firm expected fiscal year 2026 earnings before interest, tax, material items, and self-generating and regenerating assets (EBITS) to reach AU$480 million to AU$490 million, 1% above consensus. Fiscal 2027 guidance was broadly in line with consensus, with management targeting at least equivalent performance.Jarden forecast fiscal 2026 EBITS of AU$487 million, at the higher end of the guidance range, but trimmed its fiscal year 2027 to fiscal year 2028 forecasts by around 5% to 6%.The investment firm retained its overweight rating on Treasury Wine Estates and its AU$5 per share price target.

Australian Shares Retreat; Treasury Wine Estates Projects Fiscal 2026 EBITS Outlook

Australian shares retreated on Thursday as renewed hostilities between the US and Iran began anew and peace talks showed ​little progress.The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.13%, or 99.60 points, to close at 8,686.10.Brent crude oil futures fell to trade at around $96 per barrel after Lebanon and Israel agreed to a potential conditional ceasefire.Iron ore fell over 1% to $102.25 per tonne in Singapore after exports from Guinea's Simandou iron ore project rose in May.The main stock indices on Wall ​Street fell overnight, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.7% and the Nasdaq falling 0.9%, while the Dow Jones fell 1.2%.On the domestic front, Australia's goods balance recorded a seasonally adjusted surplus of AU$1.79 billion in April, up from a deficit of AU$1.02 billion in March, according to data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.Australia's economy faces mounting pressure from a softening labor market, stubborn inflation, and global energy uncertainty, weighing on growth and reshaping the property outlook, according to Bendigo Bank's Chief Economist, David Robertson.In company news, Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) expected fiscal year 2026 earnings before interest, tax, material items, and self-generating and regenerating assets (EBITS) to reach AU$480 million to AU$490 million. The firm projects fiscal year 2027 performance at least in line with the year prior, citing continued progress in normalizing customer inventory levels across China and the US.IperionX (ASX:IPX) said its definitive feasibility study for its Titan critical minerals project in the US returned an after-tax net present value of $813 million at an 8% discount rate, an after-tax internal rate of return of 39%, and an after-tax payback period of 3.6 years.Tasmea (ASX:TEA) declared a fully franked special dividend of AU$0.10 per share, representing a capital return of about AU$26.2 million. The dividend is payable June 25 to shareholders on record as of June 10. It also reconfirmed its fiscal year 2026 earnings guidance. Its shares earlier hit an all-time peak.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Fall as Oil Surges on Middle East Escalation; Treasury Wine Estates Projects Fiscal 2026 EBITS Outlook

Australian shares are poised to fall on Thursday as oil prices surged about 2% overnight amid renewed Middle East hostilities and stalled US-Iran talks, dampening sentiment across global markets.The gains in crude were driven by regional escalation after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain, reinforcing supply concerns alongside tighter inventory data.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%, 0.9%, and 1.2%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, investors are eyeing the speeches by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent.The international trade in goods report is due at 11:30 am Sydney time.In corporate news, Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) expected fiscal year 2026 earnings before interest, tax, material items, and self-generating and regenerating assets (EBITS) to reach AU$480 million to AU$490 million.Propel Funeral Partners (ASX:PFP) agreed to acquire three funeral service providers as well as related assets, infrastructure, and real estate in New Zealand for up to AU$9.1 million.Australia's benchmark index rose 0.7% or 61.3 points to close at 8,785.70 on Wednesday.

Treasury Wine Estates Projects Fiscal 2026 EBITS Outlook

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) expected fiscal year 2026 earnings before interest, tax, material items, and self-generating and regenerating assets (EBITS) to reach AU$480 million to AU$490 million, according to a Thursday filing with the Australian bourse.The firm projects fiscal year 2027 performance at least in line with the year prior, citing continued progress in normalizing customer inventory levels across China and the US.The company also expects leverage to peak at around 2.9 times in fiscal year 2026 before easing back to target by the end of fiscal year 2028, driven by free cash flow, divestment proceeds, and earnings improvement, the filing added.

Treasury Wine Estates Chief Financial, Strategy Officer to Retire Earlier Than Planned

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) said Chief Financial and Strategy Officer Stuart Boxer will retire on June 30, earlier than the previously planned Sept. 30 exit, according to a Tuesday filing with the Australian bourse.Justin Pipito, deputy chief financial officer, will assume the role of interim chief financial and strategy officer, effective June 1, per the filing.

Treasury Wine Estates Says JPMorgan Chase Becomes Substantial Holder

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) received notice that JPMorgan Chase and its affiliates became a substantial holder of the company on Tuesday, according to a Friday filing with the Australian bourse.JPMorgan Chase now owns 44.3 million shares in the company, representing 5.48% of the issued shares, the filing said.

Morgans Financial Upgrades Treasury Wine Estates to Buy from Accumulate; Price Target is AU$5.30

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Rise as Oil Steadies; Alkane Resources Posts Higher Fiscal Q3 Earnings, Revenue

Australian shares are poised to rise on Friday as oil prices held steady near recent highs, with Brent crude around $106 a barrel, after reports of limited but disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept geopolitical supply risks elevated despite mixed signals on global demand and interest rate concerns.Overnight, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each rose 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9%.In the macroeconomy, investors are eyeing the release of the Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations report.In corporate news, Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) reported Friday fiscal third-quarter earnings of AU$0.0675 per share on revenue of AU$274.4 million, compared with earnings of AU$0.0132 on revenue of AU$63.2 million a year earlier.Billionaire Olivier Goudet and Luxembourg's Platin have increased their stake in Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE), with voting power rising to 9.04% from 8.14%.Australia's benchmark index rose 0.1% or 10.3 points to close at 8,640.70 on Thursday.

Billionaire Olivier Goudet, Platin Increase Stake in Treasury Wine Estates

Billionaire Olivier Goudet and Luxembourg's Platin have increased their stake in Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE), with voting power rising to 9.04% from 8.14%, according to a Friday filing with the Australian bourse.Goudet and Platin, together as associates, owns 73 million shares of Treasury Wine Estates, following a series of on-market purchases.

Treasury Wine Estates Says JPMorgan Chase Ceases to Be a Substantial Holder; Shares Fall 3%

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) said that JPMorgan Chase and its affiliates ceased to be substantial holders of the firm as of May 7, according to a Tuesday Australian bourse filing.Its shares fell 3% in recent trading on Tuesday.

Treasury Wine Estates Commentary On March Quarter Suggests Solid Depletions Growth Across Asia, Jefferies Says

Treasury Wine Estates' (ASX:TWE) commentary on the March quarter suggests solid depletions growth across Asia, suggesting Asia ex-China depletions grew 14% in the period, Jefferies said in a note on Wednesday.The value of luxury exports to Asia excluding China grew 25.4% year-over-year in the March quarter.The Chinese wine market is structurally smaller than in the pre-tariff era, particularly for higher-priced products, given anti-extravagance measures. This has been compounded by cyclically weaker domestic Chinese consumption. China is the largest export market, accounting for 25% of total exports by value and 73% of luxury exports by value.The value of luxury exports to Hong Kong was around 14% lower in the March quarter than in the prior-year quarter. Throughout the year, Singapore surpassed Hong Kong for the value of luxury wine exported for the first time in several years.The investment firm assigned Treasury Wine Estates a hold recommendation with a price target of AU$4 per share.

Australian Shares Decline; Treasury Wine Estates to Transition to New Regional Operating Model in October

Australian shares retreated at Wednesday's close as uncertainty around negotiations between the ​US and Iran continued, even as the US extended a ceasefire.The S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.18%, or by 105.80 points, to close at 8,843.60.US President Donald Trump said the US would extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely. Iran had rejected a second round of negotiations before the extension was declared. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed, while President Trump said he would continue the US's blockade of Iran.Brent crude oil futures were steady at $$98.47 per barrel.On the domestic front, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to negative 0.13% in March from 0.05% in February, signaling a renewed slowdown in growth expectations as higher interest rates and weaker consumer sentiment weigh on the outlook.The Commonwealth Bank of Australia's inaugural FX Barometer report, conducted between Feb. 16 and April 10, showed that importers were hedging around 80% of their currency exposures and exporters hedging 86%, while businesses that both import and export were hedging around two-thirds of their exposures, reflecting partial natural offsets.In company news, Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) will transition to a new regional operating model, effective Oct. 1. Under the new model, the company will operate four regional divisions: the Americas; Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) and Europe; Greater China; and emerging markets, which cover the rest of Asia, Middle East, and Africa. Its shares soared over 16% on market close.BHP Group (ASX:BHP) reported fiscal third-quarter copper production of 476,800 tonnes, down 7% from a year earlier. Iron ore output for the March quarter was 62.8 million tonnes, an increase of 2% from the year-ago period. Its shares closed up over 1%.Lastly, South32 (ASX:S32) reported a 1% increase in alumina production year-to-date to March, helped by record production in its Brazil Alumina segment. Aluminium production was mostly flat during the period. Its shares were up over 1% on market close.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Consumer Staples Stocks Rise, Cochlear Weighs on Health Care

Consumer staples stock rose more than 1% to lead gainers in midday trading on Wednesday.Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) was advancing more than 16% after saying it will transition to a new regional operating model, effective Oct. 1, under which the company will have four regional divisions.On the flip side, health care stocks retreated over 5%, weighed down by a sharp decline for sector heavyweight Cochlear (ASX:COH).The company's shares plunged more than 39% after it downgraded its fiscal year 2026 underlying net profit guidance, saying that trading conditions for its hearing implants in developed markets have been weaker than anticipated since January.

Treasury Wine Estates to Transition to New Regional Operating Model in October

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) will transition to a new regional operating model, effective Oct. 1, according to a Wednesday Australian bourse filing.Under the new model, the company will operate four regional divisions: the Americas; Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) and Europe; Greater China; and emerging markets, which cover the rest of Asia, Middle East, and Africa.Each division will house front-end core commercial capabilities across sales, marketing, direct to consumer, and commercial strategy, per the filing. The company will retain specialist luxury sales capabilities in key markets and channels, and prioritize investment in Penfolds and other priority luxury brands.Tom King, currently the managing director of Penfolds, will assume the new role of chief commercial officer, the filing said. Kristy Keyte, currently the chief marketing officer for Penfolds, will assume the new role of chief marketing and innovation officer.The company continues to expect that fiscal second half earnings before interest, tax, self-generating and regenerating assets will be higher than the first half. It does not expect increased costs to have a material impact in fiscal 2026 in the wake of the Middle East conflict, and it will continue to monitor the situation for possible impacts.The company also established new debt commitments worth AU$300 million in total from a number of lenders within its global banking group on terms consistent with existing debt arrangements to be used to refinance fiscal 2027 debt maturities and further increase its liquidity position.

Billionaire Olivier Goudet, Platin Increase Stake in Treasury Wine Estates

Billionaire Olivier Goudet and Luxembourg's Platin have increased their stake in Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE), with voting power rising to 8.14% from 7.13%, according to a Tuesday filing with the Australian bourse.Goudet and Platin, together as associates, together own about 65.7 million shares of Treasury Wine Estates, following a series of on-market purchases.Treasury Wine Estates' shares declined nearly 1% in recent trading on Tuesday.