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Treasury Wine Estates Faces Mixed Conditions in China Market, Jefferies Says

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Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) is facing mixed conditions in the Chinese market, with strong demand for luxury wine contrasting with inventory challenges for its Penfolds business in China, Jefferies said in a note on Wednesday.

According to data from Australia's wine regulator, luxury wine export volume rose 36% in the June quarter, marking the strongest quarter since wine tariffs on Australian wine were removed in China in 2024.

However, the wine producer has suspended new orders for its popular label Penfolds Bin 407 in the Asian country from July 1 until the end of Sept. This is expected to negatively impact China wine exports in the third quarter.

The move likely suggests management is actively trying to reduce excess inventory in China while protecting the Penfolds brand from discounted grey-market sales, the firm said.

Jefferies maintained its hold rating and a price target of AU$5 on Treasury Wine Estates.

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