ASX:GNC

GrainCorp's Report Shifts East Coast Australia Outlook to Solidly Above-10-Year Average Outcome, Jefferies Says

GrainCorp's (ASX:GNC) September report effectively shifted the East Coast Australia outlook from a below-trend crop in June to a solidly above-10-year average outcome, Jefferies said in a Friday note.The East Coast winter crop forecast increased to 26.6 million tonnes in September from 23.8 million tonnes in June.The better East Coast Australia grain output comes at a time of increasing global grain tightness, particularly out of Europe and the Black Sea. The firm noted new export opportunities following recent strengthening of global grain prices.The brokerage upwardly revised its fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2028 earnings per share forecast by 18% to 23%.The investment firm maintained its buy recommendation on GrainCorp with a price target of AU$7.50 per share.

Australian Shares Fall; St Barbara to Sell Remaining Interest in Papua New Guinea Project

Australian shares fell on Thursday, as oil prices surged into triple digits in the wake of the escalating Middle East conflict.The S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.03%, or 92 points, to close at 8,819.40.Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.8%, respectively.Brent crude oil futures ​jumped to trade around $101 per barrel. US President Donald Trump said he expected the conflict with Iran to end immediately after the US midterm elections in November. There was also an ​escalation in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose to $14,858.50 per metric tonne, setting a new record. The copper futures set a fresh record in each of the previous three sessions.On the domestic front, the Australian government released the Domestic Gas Reservation Bill 2026 for consultation, establishing Australia's first national domestic gas reservation scheme requiring gas exporters to supply a portion of their production to the domestic market and proposing reserving up to 20% of gas exports for domestic use.Australia's consumer inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.9% in September, following a period of moderation between May and July, according to the Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations.In company news, St Barbara (ASX:SBM) agreed to sell its remaining interest in the New Simberi project in Papua New Guinea to China-based Lingbao Gold Group for AU$410 million in cash, along with additional cash repayments and royalties.GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) cut about 80 positions following a review of its agribusiness operating model, which identified opportunities to reduce duplication across the company's integrated East Coast of Australia network and corporate support functions.Lastly, Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE) entered into a non-binding agreement to acquire a 50% interest in the automotive retail firm Zagame Automotive Group.

ASX Biggest Losers

Here are the ASX-listed companies with the biggest losses on Thursday.IperionX (ASX:IPX): -9%, AU$2.84Elisight (ASX:ELS): -5%, AU$4.83FireFly Metals (ASX:FFM): -7%, AU$1.76Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX): -6%, AU$5.84GrainCorp (ASX:GNC): -5%, AU$6.57Austal (ASX:ASB): -5%, AU$4.42Elders (ASX:ELD): -4%, AU$6.25Zimplats (ASX:ZIM): -5%, AU$17.00Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL): -5%, AU$2.48ELEVRA Lithium (ASX:ELV): -6%, AU$7.56

GrainCorp Cuts 80 Positions After Agribusiness Operating Model Review; Expects Higher Run-Rate Benefits From Business Transformation

GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) cut about 80 positions following a review of its agribusiness operating model, which identified opportunities to reduce duplication across the company's integrated East Coast of Australia network and corporate support functions, according to a Thursday filing with the Australian bourse.The company incurred one-off restructuring costs of AU$5 million in fiscal 2026 related to the operating model changes, which are expected to improve execution and boost financial performance outcomes, per the filing.Additionally, GrainCorp said its business transformation program is on track to deliver run-rate benefits of AU$12 million by the end of fiscal 2026, which is above the company's previously disclosed commitment.The expected benefits build momentum toward a targeted uplift of AU$20 million to AU$30 million in through-the-cycle earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by the end of fiscal 2028, the company said.It is also pursuing a systems transformation, where late-stage testing has resulted in a decision to extend the deployment timeline. The first release under the transformation is now expected post-harvest in the second quarter of 2027, an extension from the previous target for the second half of this year.GrainCorp now expects spend for the first release in fiscal 2027 to be between AU$30 million and AU$35 million to complete the program, representing an increase of $30 million.The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA outlook at AU$200 million to AU$240 million, and underlying net profit after tax guidance at AU$20 million to AU$50 million.

ASX Biggest Losers

Here are the ASX-listed companies with the biggest losses on Friday.Nine Entertainment (ASX:NEC): -5%, AU$0.95Nufarm (ASX:NUF): -4%, AU$3.14IGO (ASX:IGO): -4%, AU$8.10Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS): -3%, AU$5.03GrainCorp (ASX:GNC): -3%, AU$6.82Tamboran Resources (ASX:TBN): -3%, AU$0.28Xero (ASX:XRO): -3%, AU$78.56Elevra Lithium (ASX:ELV): -3%, AU$7.68Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN): -2%, AU$61.79Dyno Nobel (ASX:DNL): -2%, AU$3.81

GrainCorp, Ampol, IFM Investors Welcome Government Consultation on Low Carbon Fuels Demand Framework

GrainCorp (ASX:GNC), Ampol (ASX:ALD), and IFM Investors said they have welcomed the Australian Government's release of its Securing Australia's Cleaner Fuels Industry Consultation Paper, describing it as a critical step toward building a domestic renewable fuels supply chain, according to a Friday statement.The companies said the consultation paper recognizes that clear demand-side policy settings are needed alongside supply-side measures to give industry the confidence to invest in domestic production at scaleGrainCorp is exploring the feasibility of building a new canola processing facility to supply Australian canola oil to the future plant, with the project having the potential to produce 750 million liters of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel each year using Australian-grown feedstocks including canola, used cooking oil and tallow, the statement added.GrainCorp's shares fell nearly 1% in recent Friday trade.

Market Chatter: GrainCorp Calls for National Biofuel Mandates to Strengthen Australia's Energy Security

GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) is urging Australia to introduce national biofuel mandates after fuel supply disruptions linked to the Iran war highlighted the country's dependence on imported fuels, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing Chief Executive Robert Spurway.In an interview, Spurway said locally grown canola could be used to produce biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), while having little impact on export volumes.The company said Australia has sufficient feedstock to meet SAF demand by 2030, but more government support for investment and research will be needed, even as the country commits AU$1.1 billion to establish domestic renewable fuel production by 2029.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

GrainCorp Completes Sale of GrainsConnect Canada JV to Parrish & Heimbecker

GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) completed the divestment of its GrainsConnect Canada joint venture (JV) to Parrish & Heimbecker, following a joint strategic review with Zen-Noh Grain that determined a sale was the most value-accretive option, according to a Monday filing with the Australian bourse.The company recognized a AU$16 million loss on the sale, which remains subject to immaterial post-completion adjustments, the filing added.

GrainCorp's Through-The-Cycle Earnings Power Under Doubt Even as Fiscal 2027 EBITDA Estimate Unchanged, Jarden Says

GrainCorp's (ASX:GNC) fiscal 2027 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimate was almost unchanged at around AU$217 million, but there is more skepticism than consensus on the firm's through-the-cycle earnings power, with the fiscal 2028 EBITDA estimate 16% and net profit after tax estimate 39% below consensus, Jarden said in a note on Tuesday.The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' (ABARES) first fiscal 2027 crop estimate east coast winter crop of 23.8 million metric tons is in line with expectations and consistent with an average crop size. If the El Niño phenomenon develops over June and July, creating soft levels of rainfall, then for fiscal 2027 there are downside risks to ABARES' forecast.The canola crop forecast is relevant for GrainCorp's nutrition and energy segment, with Jarden estimating it to account for 48% of the fiscal 2027 EBITDA estimate. ABARES' fiscal 2027 east coast canola crop estimate of 2.2 million metric tons is well below the fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2026 period but is impacted by a weak New South Wales forecast.The investment firm retained its neutral rating and AU$5.40 price target on GrainCorp.GrainCorp's shares gained about 2% in recent Wednesday trade.

Update: GrainCorp Posts Lower Fiscal H1 Earnings, Revenue; Reaffirms Fiscal 2026 Outlook; Shares Fall to Five-Year Low

(Updates with the stock movement in the headline and last paragraph.)GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) reported Thursday fiscal first-half earnings of AU$0.021 per share, down from AU$0.261 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected earnings of AU$0.31.Revenue for the six months ended March 31 was AU$3.88 billion, compared with AU$4.09 billion a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected AU$4.08 billion.The agribusiness and processing company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance of underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of AU$200 million to AU$240 million and underlying net profit after tax of between AU$20 million and AU$50 million.The board declared an interim dividend of AU$0.14 per share, unchanged from a year earlier, payable July 16 to shareholders on record as of July 2.GrainCorp shares fell more than 13% in recent Thursday trade to hit their lowest level since July 2021.

GrainCorp Posts Lower Fiscal H1 Earnings, Revenue; Reaffirms Fiscal 2026 Outlook

GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) reported Thursday fiscal first-half earnings of AU$0.021 per share, down from AU$0.261 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected earnings of AU$0.31.Revenue for the six months ended March 31 was AU$3.88 billion, compared with AU$4.09 billion a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected AU$4.08 billion.The agribusiness and processing company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance of underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of AU$200 million to AU$240 million and underlying net profit after tax of between AU$20 million and AU$50 million.The board declared an interim dividend of AU$0.14 per share, unchanged from a year earlier, payable July 16 to shareholders on record as of July 2.

Market Chatter: IFM Threatens to Scrap AU$3 Billion Sustainable Aviation Fuel Project

Australian investment company IFM Investors has threatened to scrap a proposed AU$3 billion sustainable aviation fuel project in Australia, unless the Australian government mandates airlines use the product, according to a Tuesday Bloomberg report, citing IFM's Global Head of Infrastructure Asset Management, Danny Elia.Elia said that IFM needs to see some finalization of Australia's policy framework on the subject as well as a demand-side mandate, the report added.IFM is working on the project under a memorandum of understanding with Ampol (ASX:AMP) and GrainCorp (ASX:GNC).Virgin Australia (ASX:VGN) and Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN) did not immediately respond to anemail request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Ord Minnett Downgrades GrainCorp to Accumulate from Buy; Price Target is AU$7.25