Catapult Sports' Actual Cash Earnings Growth Profile Remains Strong Following Recent Stock Underperformance, Jefferies Says
Catapult Sports' (ASX:CAT) share price might reflect true operational fundamentals over the next 12 months as non-cash accounting downgrades that drove recent underperformance are now fully reflected in consensus estimates, Jefferies said in a Monday note.The company's shares declined roughly 50% over the past 12 months, partly due to a global tech stock sell-off but also because of a significant level of cuts to consensus forecasts for fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings.The downgrades were strictly driven by non-cash items involving "quirky" profit and loss treatment of acquisition earn-outs and an increase in merger and acquisition-linked acquired amortization, according to Jefferies."We believe the drivers of recent underperformance are now in the rear-view mirror, setting the stage for the share price to be driven by the outlook for fundamental cash earnings, which remain very healthy," the investment firm said.It noted that an analysis suggests Catapult's organic growth profile "has never been stronger," as evidenced by accelerating growth in the second half of fiscal 2026 on the back of a record level of organic incremental annual contract value.Meanwhile, the recent launch of Catapult's Scouting video product filled a key strategic gap in the company's video suite, allowing for a more robust cross-sell proposition, and served to strengthen the stock's growth outlook, Jefferies said.It maintained a buy rating on Catapult Sports and cut its price target to AU$5.70 from AU$7.50, citing the mark-to-market of Australia-listed software peers.The company's shares fell 1% in recent Tuesday trade.
