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Commodities

US, Canada Activity Growth Lifts Oilfield Services Outlook, RBC Says

Growing North American activity, improving pricing trends, and expanding power-generation opportunities supported a broadly positive outlook for oilfield services companies at RBC Capital Markets' energy conference, the firm said Sunday.Land drillers indicated that US activity could strengthen through 2026, with Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), Precision Drilling (PDS), and Ensign Energy Services currently operating a combined 171 rigs, including 94, 37, and 40, respectively.Representing about 32% of the US land rig fleet of 541, those companies outlined plans to add 10 to 16 rigs next year, implying an industry-wide increase of roughly 32 to 51 rigs and lifting the total count to 573 to 592 rigs by the end of 2026.Several conference participants also noted that approximately 30 idled rigs could return to service for low-single-digit millions of dollars, RBC said.Pricing trends appeared more favorable in pressure pumping than drilling, with Halliburton (HAL), Liberty Energy (LBRT), Patterson-UTI, and Trican Well Service pursuing price increases as momentum builds in the second quarter of 2026 and larger gains emerge in the second half of the year.On the drilling side, Patterson-UTI said rig pricing improved from the low $30,000-per-day range to the low- to mid-$30,000-per-day range, while Nabors Industries (NBR) expects rates to reach the mid-$30,000-per-day range as super-spec rig utilization exceeds 70%.In Canada, the rig count remained at 182, with Precision Drilling reporting record second-quarter 2026 activity levels and Ensign Energy Services expecting operations to rise from 30 rigs after spring break-up to more than 50 rigs during the third quarter of 2026.While disruptions persisted in Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar, activity in Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE continued at a more normalized pace, and Enerflex (EFXT) pursued expansion opportunities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, RBC said.International growth opportunities continued to expand, with Halliburton securing a multi-billion-dollar pressure pumping contract from YPF in Argentina, while Venezuela remained a longer-term opportunity highlighted by Halliburton, Weatherford International (WFRD), Ensign Energy Services, and Baker Hughes (BKR).Power generation emerged as another major theme, with Liberty Energy, Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI), and Enerflex evaluating more than 21 gigawatts of opportunities, as data center demand and grid constraints support behind-the-meter projects.Although investors generally support the bullish case for energy services because of stronger commodity prices, Middle East supply disruptions, and favorable producer outlooks, many remain cautious while awaiting further developments in the Iran conflict, RBC said.

$AESI$BKR$EFXT$HAL$LBRT$NBR$PDS$PTEN$WFRD
Commodities

Atlas Energy Sees Strong Sand Demand, Advances Power Strategy, RBC Says

Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) has made meaningful progress in its power generation strategy and sees improving conditions across its proppant and logistics businesses, RBC Capital Markets said in a Tuesday note.The company is targeting about 2 gigawatt of power generation deployments by 2030, supported by a 1.4-GW Caterpillar framework agreement, 240 megawatt of prior equipment orders and existing Moser capacity.Atlas expects to deploy more than 550 MW of power assets in H1 of 2027, followed by about 500 MW in each of 2028 and 2029, while its power opportunity pipeline has expanded to about 4 GW, including data center projects.The company recently signed a 120 MW power purchase agreement with a five-year term and two five-year extension options, which could generate about $50 million to $55 million of annualized adjusted free cash flow when fully deployed.RBC noted that securing long-term power contracts would support a more stable and predictable cash flow profile.Atlas said sand volumes, also known as proppant, are effectively sold out for Q2 of 2026 and expects strong demand through the rest of the year, although average realized prices are expected to remain below $18 per metric ton as the market remains well supplied.Management expects operating costs to decline to about $12.75/mt and improve further through 2026 as new Twinkle dredges enter service at the Kermit mine, increasing production efficiency and fixed-cost absorption.Logistics margins should improve sequentially, supported by higher Dune Express utilization and stronger trucking rates, with the firm forecasting logistics margins of about 13% in 2026.RBC maintained a $20 price target based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, implying roughly 9.5x 2027 EBITDA of $355 million.RBC maintained its Sector Perform rating on Atlas Energy Solutions.Price: $18.34, Change: $+0.30, Percent Change: +1.66%

$AESI
Research

Raymond James Upgrades Atlas Energy Solutions to Outperform From Market Perform, PT is $25

Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $19.64, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

$AESI
Wire

RBC Lifts Price Target on Atlas Energy Solutions to $20 From $14, Keeps Sector Perform Rating

Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $13.05, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $18.17, Change: $-1.05, Percent Change: -5.46%

$AESI
Oil & Energy

Middle East Rig Count Dropped in March, RBC Says

Middle East onshore rig counts fell by 43 rigs, or 5% over the month in March, while offshore counts declined by 10 rigs, or 4%, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a Tuesday note.These disruptions, along with higher logistics and staffing costs, are expected to pressure first-half results for companies with regional exposure, RBC said.In the US, Q1 rig counts totaled 530, down 7% over the year but above RBC's estimate of 518, prompting an upward revision to its 2026 forecast to 544 from 526.RBC expects activity to remain supported by higher oil prices, easing concerns about a potential drop in West Texas Intermediate crude to $50 per barrel coming into 2026.In Canada, rig counts reached 216, down 4% over the year but slightly above RBC's estimate of 214, with spending expected to remain broadly flat, RBC said.Meanwhile, oilfield services stocks have surged about 36% in 2026, with valuations shifting higher as the sector heads into the Q1 earnings season, strategists said.RBC said Q1 reporting begins Apr. 21 with Halliburton (HAL), Saipem, and Weatherford (WFRD), as investors assess geopolitical risks and future production recovery trends, the report said.RBC said US-focused companies have outperformed peers with Middle East exposure this year, reflecting stronger domestic activity trends and fewer geopolitical disruptions.The firm's top picks include Schlumberger (SLB), Baker Hughes (BKR), TechnipFMC (FTI), Enerflex (EFXT), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), Hunting and CES Energy Solutions, according to the note.Meanwhile, RBC lowered its Q1 EBITDA estimates by 2.4%, with the largest revisions for Schlumberger (SLB) and Trican Well Service (TCW), while raising forecasts for Saipem, TechnipFMC and Enerflex.The revised estimates generally fall below consensus, particularly for Trican Well Service, Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) and Calfrac Well Services (CFW), while exceeding expectations for Halliburton, Enerflex and Ensign Energy Services, RBC said.RBC downgraded Trican Well Service to sector perform from outperform with a $7.50 price target and cut NOV (NOV) to sector perform from outperform with a $21 price target.

$AESI$BKR$EFXT$FTI$HAL$NOV$PTEN$SLB$WFRD