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Atlas Energy Sees Strong Sand Demand, Advances Power Strategy, RBC Says

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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) has made meaningful progress in its power generation strategy and sees improving conditions across its proppant and logistics businesses, RBC Capital Markets said in a Tuesday note.

The company is targeting about 2 gigawatt of power generation deployments by 2030, supported by a 1.4-GW Caterpillar framework agreement, 240 megawatt of prior equipment orders and existing Moser capacity.

Atlas expects to deploy more than 550 MW of power assets in H1 of 2027, followed by about 500 MW in each of 2028 and 2029, while its power opportunity pipeline has expanded to about 4 GW, including data center projects.

The company recently signed a 120 MW power purchase agreement with a five-year term and two five-year extension options, which could generate about $50 million to $55 million of annualized adjusted free cash flow when fully deployed.

RBC noted that securing long-term power contracts would support a more stable and predictable cash flow profile.

Atlas said sand volumes, also known as proppant, are effectively sold out for Q2 of 2026 and expects strong demand through the rest of the year, although average realized prices are expected to remain below $18 per metric ton as the market remains well supplied.

Management expects operating costs to decline to about $12.75/mt and improve further through 2026 as new Twinkle dredges enter service at the Kermit mine, increasing production efficiency and fixed-cost absorption.

Logistics margins should improve sequentially, supported by higher Dune Express utilization and stronger trucking rates, with the firm forecasting logistics margins of about 13% in 2026.

RBC maintained a $20 price target based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, implying roughly 9.5x 2027 EBITDA of $355 million.

RBC maintained its Sector Perform rating on Atlas Energy Solutions.

Price: $18.34, Change: $+0.30, Percent Change: +1.66%

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