S&P/TSX Composite Index

TSX Now Down Near 40 Pts, Having Opened Up Near 40 Pts; Plunged Last Friday, Ahead of Canada Holiday Weekend

Canada's CPI Jumps on Gasoline Prices in April, But Is Lower Than Expected

The Canadian consumer price index increased 2.8% year over year in April on rising energy prices, up from an increase of 2.4% in March, said the country's statistical agency on Tuesday.But April's CPI was lower than a 3.1% year over year consensus figure provided by MUFG.Higher energy prices, most notably gasoline prices, drove the acceleration in the headline CPI, said Statistics Canada in a statement. The removal of the consumer carbon levy in April 2025, which resulted in monthly declines for gasoline and natural gas, has now fallen out of the 12-month movement, putting upward pressure on the all-items CPI. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose at a slower pace year over year in April (+2.0%) compared with March (+2.2%), added StatsCan.Moderating faster price growth in the all-items CPI was a year-over-year decline in prices for travel tours and a slowdown in rent prices, the agency said.The CPI was up 0.4% month over month in April, pointed out the Ottawa-based agency. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3%.The monthly and quarterly CPI reports, reported by StatsCan, measure the index level of prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services such as food, energy, vehicle, medical care, apparel, and housing. The core measure, which excludes food and energy due to their volatility, is closely watched by markets and the Bank of Canada as a sign of underlying inflation pressures.

Brief: Canada April CPI at 0.4% M/M Non-Seasonally Adjusted; at 0.3% M/M Seasonally Adjusted

Brief: Canada's CPI Excluding Gasoline at 2.0% Y/Y in April Vs. 2.2% Y/Y in March

Brief: Canada's CPI at 2.8% Y/Y in April; MUFG Says Consensus Saw at 3.1% Y/Y

TSX Closer: Index Plunges On Concerns Around Elevated Oil Prices and Inflation, Overshadows Pipeline Agreement

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed sharply lower Friday as rising global bond yields sapped investor appetite for equities, with elevated oil prices reigniting concerns around the outlook for higher inflation and with that, overshadowing news of an energy agreement that could see pipeline construction start in oil-rich Alberta within about two years.The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 434.92 points, or 1.25%, to 33,833.25, with most sectors lower, led by Base Metals, down 5.5% as gold was lower, and Health Care, down 3.6%.Higher oil price have boosted the Energy sector, which gained 2% on a day when the big local news centered around the Canadian federal government's plans to greenlight Alberta oil pipeline construction in return for oil-sands producers moving ahead with a massive carbon-capture.With a green light from the federal government, Alberta hopes to begin construction on a new oil pipeline as early as fall 2027, with oil flowing by 2033-34,CTV National News reported, while noting there remains no clear private sector investor to pay for it.Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith met in Calgary Friday to sign an updated deal. It outlines that the federal government will work towards designating the pipeline a project of national interest by Oct. 1, with a date of Sept. 1, 2027, for potential construction approval.The deal also raises the effective carbon price for Alberta to $130-a-tonne by 2040, instead of 2030 as previously laid out in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the pair in November. That deal originally laid out conditions for the new pipeline to the West Coast. Alberta estimates the new pricing will save the industry about $250 billion by 2050.Friday's see headline carbon-emission costs move from a current $95 per tonne to $115 in 2030, $130 by 2035 and $140 by 2040, Alberta's headline carbon price is currently set at $95-a-tonne.But today the impact of the higher oil price outside of Canada dictated how the trading day went.As the conflict in the Middle East is about to enter its twelfth week, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping following the failure of a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, noted National Bank in its latest Monthly Economic Monitor. "If the crisis is not resolved, what looms is a multi-faceted supply shock that would put considerable pressure on supply chains, drive inflation upwards beyond the sectors most exposed to energy prices, and likely force several central banks to tighten monetary policy," it said."Of course," National Bank added, "such an outcome is not inevitable, as a negotiated agreement between the two warring parties remains a distinct possibility. Indeed, this is currently factored into our baseline scenario. It is important to note, however, that while a reopening of the strait would lead to better economic outcomes in many regions, it would not resolve all the issues. This is because it would likely take several weeks, or even several months, before maritime traffic could return to its pre-crisis level."National Bank said even if the political impasse were to be resolved relatively quickly, as it still anticipates, the world would not return to its previous growth trajectory. The resilience of the U.S. would likely be more than offset by the weakness of emerging markets in Asia and Europe, and this would result in growth of 3.0% this year and 3.3% next year, it added.Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets Chief Economist Douglas Porter in his weekly 'Talking Points' note said Canada "has certainly not escaped the global bond sell-off", noting 30-year yields were above 4%. They touched that level on one day in late 2023, but haven't otherwise been there since 2010, he noted. Porter added the "important" five-year yield has jumped to 3.35%, its highest level in almost two years and is now up more than 65 bps since the start of the war. "That will put upward pressure on mortgage rates and further dampen a soggy housing market, thus tightening conditions notably without the Bank of Canada even lifting a finger."Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 4.2% on fading hopes the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal that will re-open the Strait of the Hormuz as this week's U.S.-China summit meeting ended with mixed messages on ending the war on Iran. WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.25 to settle at US$105.42 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$3.56 to US$109.28.But gold traded lower by midafternoon Friday as the dollar and yields climbed on concerns around inflation and concerns the rise in oil prices will force central banks to hike interest rates. Gold for June delivery was down $140.90 to US$4,544.40 per ounce.

TSX Tumbles More Than 500 Points at Midday as Materials Weigh

The Toronto Stock Market tumbled more than 500 points at midday, with materials (-6.2%) the outsized decliner, weighed down by lower gold prices.Energy, up 1.3% is the best performer, boosted by rising oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.In Canada, manufacturing sales hit their highest level since January 2025, rising 3.0% to $73.6 billion in March, StatsCan reported today. Sales rose in nine of the 21 subsectors, led by the petroleum and coal product (+22.7%) and transportation equipment (+6.0%) subsectors. Manufacturing sales rose in eight provinces in March with Ontario and Alberta posting the largest increases.Canadian housing starts came in at 279.3k annualized units in April, marking a 17% month-on-month increase from March's level.TD said April's starts bounce-back was larger than expected and suggests some upside risk to the bank's view on residential investment's contribution to GDP to begin in the second quarter. However, recent easing in building permits signals some near-term cooling for starts, it added."Despite April's uptick, housing starts are down so far this year compared to the end of 2025, on a six-month moving average basis. We think this trend will continue for the remainder of this year amid weak population growth, elevated unsold inventories, and past weakness in pre-sales in key markets. Activity next year could see some support from recent government actions to cut taxes on new homes," TD said.

TSX Brief Down Near 475 Pts, More Than 1% Early Friday As Market Focus Seems To Be Back On Middle East Tensions

Nasdaq 100 Futures Down 1.4%

S&P Futures Down Near 1%, Having Closed Thursday at All Time High and Having Set Up For 7th Successive Weekly Gain, Longest Run Since Sept. 2023

S&P Futures Down 1%

TSX Closer: The Index Closes Higher As Canada's Federal Govt Makes Moves To Stimulate Across the Economy

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Thursday, with most sectors up as the Canadian federal government moves to stimulate a range of industries in the economy.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 226.84, or 0.7%, to 34,268.27, with each of Info Tech, the Battery Metals Index, Financial and Telecom sub indices all gaining more than 1%.Energy was also up by more than 1% as West Texas Intermediate crude oil edged higher despite reports Iran is allowing Chinese ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up $0.15 to settle at US$101.17 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$0.10 to US$105.73.But Base Metals was down 2.1% as gold had moved lower by midafternoon Thursday while the dollar rose after a report showed U.S. retail-sales growth slowed in April. Gold for June delivery was down $22.20 to US$4,684.50.After securing a majority in Parliament, the governing Liberal Party is now moving quickly to implement its plans for stimulating the economy in the face of pressures stemming from the Iran war and tariffs introduced by the Trump administration.Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled Canada's long-awaited new electricity strategy Thursday, placing a heavy emphasis on expanding the role of natural gas in powering the grid as he seemed to distance the government from its 2030 Paris climate commitments, The Canadian Press reported. The new strategy looks to double Canada's electricity grid by 2050 and would adjust the clean electricity regulations to provide more flexibility to allow natural gas to play a larger role in building the grid, it noted.In another report from The Canadian Press, PM Carney is cited saying on Thursday his government is open to selling public assets if the proceeds could help fund new infrastructure. The November federal budget and April spring economic statement both mentioned exploring new ownership options for the country's federally owned airports, it noted.Meanwhile, Canada and Alberta will meet on Friday and advance a potential pipeline to transport at least one million barrels of Alberta oil a day to new markets, PM Carney said on Thursday, Reuters reported. Carney, speaking to reporters, also confirmed an earlier Reuters report which said he would also unveil details of a new deal with Alberta on industrial carbon pricing.

TSX up Near 250 Points at Midday, Led by Tech and Healthcare Sectors

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 247 points with most sectors higher midday Thursday.The best performers are info tech and healthcare, up 2.1% and 1.5%, respective.The mining sector has shed 1.8%, dragged by precious-metals prices: gold is down 0.3% and silver, down 4.5%Canada March wholesale sales (excluding petroleum and grains) rose 1.9% to $89 billion, above the 1.3% consensus forecast. Sales increased in five of the seven subsectors, led by machinery, equipment and supplies, Statistics Canada said. Wholesale sales were 3.3% higher in March than in the same month one year earlier.Canada and Alberta will meet on Friday and advance a potential pipeline to transport at least one million barrels of Alberta oil a day to new markets, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday, Reuters reports.In stocks, Manulife (MFC.TO) shares are down 6.3% to $51.16 per share with 4.4-million shares being traded, after it reported a core earnings miss after trade on Wednesday.

TSX Now Up Nearer 50 Pts, Was Up About 115 Pts; Comes After It Lost Near 250 Pts Wednesday, Its First Loss in 4 Sessions

S&P Futures and Nasdaq 100 Futures Both Up 0.25%, Extending All Time Highs

TSX Closer: The Index Slumps As External Factors Continue To Weigh

The Toronto Stock Exchange slumped Wednesday as the Iran war's impact on oil prices and the ongoing uncertainty around the Trump Administration's trade policies continue to weigh, even if Canadian investors appear to be positive on domestic market fundamentals.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 249. points to 34,041.43, falling for the first of four sessions, even with sectors mixed and with the Battery Metals Index, up 4.4%.Base Metals was up 1.5% as gold edged higher by midafternoon Wednesday even as the dollar rose after a report showed U.S. wholesale inflation surged in April. Gold for June delivery was up US$17.90 to US$4,704.60 per ounce.West Texas Intermediate crude oil closing lower, although it did stick above US$100, as the loss of Persian Gulf supply since the start of the war on Iran cuts into stocks, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting a record draw down in inventories since the conflict began. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.02 to settle US$101.02 per barrel, while July Brent oil was down US$1.98 to US$105.79.Reflecting a view that the outlook for markets in Canada is largely conditional on external matters, Tiago Figueiredo, a Macro Strategist at Desjardins, said the April summary of monetary policy deliberations by the Bank of Canada for the policy decisions announced two weeks earlier "underscored a conditional policy stance", with the Governing Council prepared to look through energy-driven inflation so long as broader price pressures remain contained. Governing Council was much more explicit their reaction function would be conditional on the trajectory of oil prices and developments on U.S. trade policy, he added.In the base case, members judged that a policy rate close to current levels would likely remain appropriate, Figueiredo noted. "Central bankers agreed that they had the scope to be patient for now, but the situation could change quickly and they would need to be nimble in their response to events. This assessment is broadly in line with our view that, although uncertainty is elevated, the most likely path forward is that policymakers remain on hold this year," he said.Meanwhile, an RBC Economics 'Insight' said Canadian consumers have proven "remarkably resilient" over the past year despite trade wars, immigration cuts, and persistent economic uncertainty. "Household spending remained a steady engine of growth with RBC cardholder transactions suggesting that resilience extended into Q1 2026 even as a significant new shock hit the economy -- at gas pumps," the bank added.

TSX Falls 230 Points at Midday in Broad Decline

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 230 points at midday with most sectors lower.Miners and healthcare are the best performers, up 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively.Info tech is the biggest laggard, 2%.In other news, the federal and Alberta governments are likely to announce a deal on industrial carbon pricing this Friday, CTV News reports, citing unnamed sources.The sources also say Canada and Alberta are working around the idea of setting the $130-a-tonne price by 2040, as opposed to 2030, CTV notes.In stocks, Boyd Group Services (BYD.TO) is down near 12% to a multi-year low of $134.94 after it reported its first-quarter results this morning.

TSX Down Near 150 Pts After Three Successive Days of Gains

S&P Futures Up 0.25% and Nasdaq 100 Futures Up 0.8%

TSX Closer: The Index Completes a Hat Trick of Wins, Back To Near 1% of Its Record High

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher for a third-straight session on Tuesday, closing in on its March 2 record high as investors see strong fundamentals in equity markets, despite ongoing uncertainties around what impact the ongoing Iran war will have on the global economy and the outlook for interest rates everywhere.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 151.85 points to 34,290.73 as most sectors rallied to gains. The Battery Metals Index was up near 2.8%, Energy up 2.4% and Base Metals up 2.5%. In contrast, Info Tech was down about 1.7% and Health Care down 1.5%.According to FactSet the TSX going in to today's session had been up 282.26 points or 0.83% over the prior two trading days, leaving it 1.16% off its record close of 34,541.27 on March 2. Going in to today, month-to-date the index was up 0.51% and year-to-date was up 2,426.12 points or 7.65%.Despite a ceasefire being in place for over a month, the U.S.-Iran conflict remains unresolved, noted National Bank in its Monthly Fixed Income Monitor for May. "For now, all we can say with certainty is that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shuttered, keeping oil prices elevated," the bank said, before adding this oil supply shock only adds to an inflation backdrop that was growing problematic before the war even began. Meanwhile, downside employment risks continue to moderate, as the labor market appears to be strengthening, National Bank said."As recently as March, a majority of the FOMC anticipated delivering further rate cuts this year but this position is becoming increasingly difficult to defend. Markets have already stripped out all the easing that was once anticipated and now see the central bank on hold all year. We concur and expect that a June dot plot will show the same. While not our base case, we must acknowledge that near-term hikes are a greater risk than near-term cuts," the bank added.In Canada, data has continued to disappoint in 2026, National Bank noted. It said the recovery seen briefly late last year is now a distant memory. "Back then," the bank added, "expectations for tighter policy were justified by a recovering jobs market, resilient growth and warm core inflation. Today's hike expectations have more to do with oil-driven price pressures than underlying economic strength. Despite markets flagging the risk of near-term hikes, we continue to judge that relatively well-contained inflation and lingering economic slack will allow the Bank to look through the shock, pushing an eventual return to neutral into 2027."Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil oil closed higher a third session on the faltering ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which continues the largest-ever energy supply shock. WTI oil for June delivery closed up $4.11 to settle at US$102.18 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up $3.60 to US$107.81.But gold had moved lower by midafternoon Tuesday, dropping for a second day as the dollar and yields rose after the U.S. reported inflation continued to surge last month on higher energy prices that followed the war on Iran. Gold for June delivery was down $43.50 to US$4,685.20 an ounce.