S&P/TSX Composite

Market Chatter: PM Carney Comments On Being Asked Is Canada In a Recession

While Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged weaknesses in the Canadian economy on Tuesday, he also defended the federal government's economic agenda and did not use the word "recession.""This government's been in the process of laying the foundations for a stronger, more resilient, more independent Canadian economy," Carney said Tuesday when asked directly by reporters in Ottawa about whether Canada is in a recession. "That process is settling in during that time as we make major investments, major changes to how the government operates, how we do major projects, how we have new trade agreements with other countries."Carney's comments were his first on the issue after Statistics Canada data on Friday showed a slight contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) for two straight quarters, meeting the technical definition of a recession.The prime minister said part of the economic slowdown is due to "clear decisions by the government," including reining in immigration and government spending. "There's some other choppiness in terms of how investment is happening, but we're also seeing at the same time, the foundations coming into place, settling in for that stronger, more resilient economy," Carney added.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Market Chatter: Canada's Trade Minister Wants CUSMA Renewed As Trump Revives 51st State Threat

In a letter to his counterparts in the United States and Mexico, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc says he wants to renew the countries' trilateral trade deal for another 16 years and opt out of an annual review process, CTV News is reporting Tuesday."This agreement is highly beneficial to each of our countries and to the integrated North American economy," LeBlanc wrote in a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard."The growth and success brought forward by our historic trilateral trade agreement is why I am confirming that Canada recommends renewal of the agreement for another 16 years," he also wrote.LeBlanc is set to travel to Washington on Tuesday, along with Canada's Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette, for a meeting with Greer, as the CUSMA review deadline fast approaches.By July 1, officials must notify their counterparts whether they want to renew CUSMA for a 16-year period or agree to an annual review process."Canada recognizes that either or both other parties to the agreement may with to propose areas where improvements may be warranted to strengthen North American competitiveness," LeBlanc wrote in his letter to Greer and Ebrard, adding Canada "looks forward to continued engagement" with the U.S. and Mexico. "In parallel, discussions with the United States on addressing sectoral tariffs will be essential," he also wrote.Canada and the U.S. have been in a protracted trade war for more than a year, after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped a slate of tariffs on Canadian imports. While the vast majority of products are tariff-free because they're covered under CUSMA, several sectoral levies are still in place.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Trade Talks Brief: PM Carney On CBC TV Says Canada Looking To Determine "Whether There is a Possibility of a New Partnership" With U.S. On Autos, Steel, Aluminum, Forest Products

Trade Talks Brief: PM Mark Carney On CBC TV Notes U.S. Has "30 Issues Or So" With Canada, "And We Are Working Through a Series of Those Issues"

Trade Talks Brief: LeBlanc Adds He Wants Related Countries To Opt Out of An Annual Review Process

Trade Talks Brief: In a Letter To His Counterparts in the U.S. and Mexico, LeBlanc Says He Wants To Renew the Countries' Trilateral Trade Deal For Another 16 Yrs

Trade Talks Brief: Canada-U.S. Trade Minister, Dominic LeBlanc, To Meet With Counterparts In Washington Today

TSX Climbs Over 330 Points to New High as Commodities Jump

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up over 330 points to hit a new high of 35,069 points.Materials and energy are the best performers, gaining 3.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Gold is higher, following reports that Iran is reviewing a fresh U.S. offer to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.The telecoms sectors is the sole decliners, down 0.5%.Federal Minister of Internal Trade Dominic LeBlanc and Canada's chief negotiator Janice Charette are heading to Washington today to meet with U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer. A statement from LeBlanc's office did not state the purpose of the meeting. Greer concluded first round of bilateral talks with Mexico last Friday.In other news, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation amending his Section 232 national security tariffs on some aluminum, steel and copper imports, CTV News reports.The proclamation lowers tariffs on some steel and aluminum derivative products, including certain types of agricultural machinery and residential heating, air conditioning and ventilation equipment to 15% from 25% previously.

TSX Opens Up Near 170 Pts and Above 34,900 Level; Was Down For First Day In 3 on Monday

Market Chatter: U.S. Big Tech Holds 85% of Canadian Cloud Market, report says ahead of AI strategy

Three big U.S. tech companies control the vast majority of Canada's publicly-available cloud infrastructure, says a new report released ahead of the government's national AI strategy, which is expected to include measures targeting AI sovereignty, The Canadian Press is reporting Tuesday.Amazon, Microsoft and Google hold 85% of public cloud market share in Canada -- much higher than their global average of 66%, according to the report from the Canadian Anti-Monopoly Project released Tuesday.The federal government is set to release an AI strategy this week. It's expected to call for building a foundation for Canadian sovereign AI as one of its six pillars."AI for All will support the building of sovereign compute infrastructure at scale -- resilient, sustainable, and under Canadian governance, and grow Canada's exceptional AI researchers and talent pool," the government said in the spring economic statement.CBC reported Monday that in a draft version of the AI strategy, the government acknowledged that data centre and cloud options in Canada are mostly foreign-owned. It also said it will take significant investment to overcome reliance on foreign providers of compute capacity, CBC reported.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Nasdaq 100 Futures Flat and S&P Futures Down 0.15%

S&P Futures Down 0.1%

TSX Closer: The Index Edges Down, But Still Near Its Record Close As CIBC Flags Its Top 10 Best Ideas For June

The Toronto Stock Exchange succumbed to some late selling pressure Monday on some profit taking as it trades shy of the record close it a week ago, while CIBC said it continues to retain an upside bias for equities through early to mid summer and picked out its 10 'Best Ideas' for June.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 34.25 points, or 0.1%, to 34,734.89, leaving it about 100 points shy of last Monday's record finish of 34,830. Most sectors were higher, led by Info Tech, up 6%, and then Base Metals, up 2.6%, and Energy, up 2.1%. In contrast, Financial was down 1.3% and Utilities was 0.5% lower.CIBC published its Top-10 Best Ideas for June, while noting its best ideas for the month of May returned 2.28% and marginally trailed the benchmark by six basis points. Year to date, CIBC's monthly recommended baskets have returned 15.32%, reflecting 571 bps of alpha over the benchmark TSX index. Comparatively, the TSX and SPX indices have returned 9.61% and 10.8% respectively, it noted.The following represent CIBC's top-10 best ideas for the month of June: Brookfield Renewable (BEP-UN.TO), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP-UN.TO), Capital Power (CPX.TO), Celestica (CLS.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO), Capstone Copper (CS.TO), Lundin Mining (LUN.TO), Linamar (LNR.TO), Keyera (KEY.TO), and TFI International (TFII.TO).CIBC said: "As we head into the summer months, equity markets continue to show resilience on the surface and are still being driven by momentum. Indices are at new price discovery highs and climbing the wall of worry, while trends are looking good and remain intact. The same quantitative and technical signals that have worked from the March lows continue to reward investors -- momentum is doing what momentum tends to do, which is to build upon itself and force buyers in."That said, beneath the surface, not much has changed from a breadth perspective -- still mediocre. The magnitude of the recent narrow sector concentration in mega-cap technology remains dominant, but with some spillover effects in broader technology sub-sectors with AI-related tailwinds, technology may be broadening out internally (hardware, memory, semis, cyber, clouds, and even software now). U.S. technology did all the heavy lifting this past month -- technology and its sub-sectors are the only ones that are mostly populating our leadership rotation quad. Given the one- and three-month timespans of the relative-strength leadership in technology (within quad 1), it would be reasonable to suggest that the next bigger development may be about transitioning into a lower quad (quad 3, consolidation). This may set the stage for the market to begin to shift its character throughout the summertime, moving away from simple "beta-chasing" and back toward a "late-cycle"-like rotation environment, arguably similar to late Q4/25 and early Q1/26. This does not imply an imminent negative reversal. If breadth-broadening can begin to emerge, uptrends may establish better durability. Otherwise, indices may lose trend and get stuck in a range."CIBC noted at the start of the year, it used its price discovery framework to calculate a trading range for the S&P 500 index between a lower band of 7,490 and an upper band of 7,790 for 2026. With the index now around 7,580, approaching the upper end of that range, completing what was previously a measured move calculation, the bank said. This doesn't end the bull trend, but it does mean risk reward for chasing upside has become less attractive at current levels, it added."Overall, we remain cautiously constructive on risk assets and continue to retain an upside bias for equities through early to mid summer, supported by the recent solid Q2 earnings growth trends. However, once again, beneath the surface, breadth conditions are not yet showing affirmative follow-through expansion as leadership remains increasingly narrow and concentrated within the same group of stocks, and trading volumes are historically thinner in summertime which may reduce liquidity and force volatility. In our opinion, the dominant leading factors like Growth, Beta, and Momentum are likely to cool as the market transitions into a consolidation phase (quad 3) throughout summertime."It is for the above mentioned reasons that we continue to favour a balanced, barbell style with directional setups for our recommended portfolio selections throughout the summer months, rather than chasing beta."Of commodities, gold fell off a two-week high by midafternoon Monday as the dollar rose after fresh attacks between the United States and Iran boosted oil prices, reviving inflation worries. Gold for July delivery was down US$81.70 to US$4,511.30 per ounce, after rising to a highest since May 14 on Friday.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged 5.5%, climbing off a six-week low on heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S., dimming expectations for a peace deal in a war now entering its fourth month that has caused the largest-ever oil supply shock. The July WTI Crude Oil Contract closed up US$4.80 to settles at US$92.16 per barrel, while August Brent oil rose US$3.86 to US$94.88.

TSX Down Near 100 Points at Midday With Financials The Biggest Decliner; Info Tech, Energy, Best Performers

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down near 100 points at midday with the financials sector (-1.4%), the biggest decliner.Limiting losses are strong gains in info tech (+5.2%) and energy (+3%).Oil prices are higher as expectations dim for a peace deal in the Iran war now entering its fourth month. Media reports said today that Iran has confirmed there will be no peace talks with the U.S. until Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza cease, citing the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency.Despite the rally on Friday, and the additional gains today the S&P/TSX Info-tech sub-sector is still down YTD, RBC Capital Markets noted Monday.The underperformance of the S&P/TSX Info-tech sub-sector reflects its high exposure to software and continued low investor sentiment on software, the bank said. The median stock in RBC's coverage is down 20% YTD, it noted.Investor sentiment "remains soft" across its coverage, even though calendar Q1 results were largely in line or above consensus estimates; 69% of its covered stocks reported first-quarter revenue above consensus. With 68% of the stocks in its coverage in the lowest quintile of their historical valuation range, RBC sees attractive risk-reward across the coverage.The best investment ideas in RBC's coverage are Shopify (SHOP.TO), Constellation (CSU.TO), Kinaxis (KXS.TO) and Celestica (CLS.TO).

Apotex Health Corp. Launching Its Initial Public Offering

Apotex Health Corp. launched Monday its prior disclosed initial public offering of common shares in the company and the commencement of its roadshow following the filing of an amended and restated preliminary base PREP prospectus with the securities regulatory authorities in each of the provinces and territories of Canada.The company in a statement said the offering is expected to be between 41,666,671 and 50,000,006 common shares at a price each between $20.00 and $24.00, for gross proceeds of approximately $1 billion.Monday's statement noted the offering consists of a treasury offering by Apotex of between 35,416,666 and 42,500,000 common shares at the offering price, for gross proceeds of approximately $850 million to Apotex, and a secondary offering by certain shareholders of the company of between 6,250,005 and 7,500,006 common shares at the offering price, for gross proceeds of approximately $150 million to the selling shareholders.The selling shareholders are expected to grant an over-allotment option to the underwriters to purchase up to an additional 6.25 million to 7.5 million common hares at the offering price, exercisable at any time, in whole or in part, until 30 days after the closing date of the offering, to cover over-allotments, if any, and for market stabilization purposes, the statement also noted.eadquartered in Toronto, with regional offices globally, including in the United States, Mexico, and India, we are the largest Canadian-based pharmaceutical company and a health partner of choice for the Americas for pharmaceutical licensing and product acquisitions.

S&P Futures and Nasdaq Both Up 0.25%; S&P Up 7 Straight Days, 9 Weeks

TSX Closer: The Index Rises For a Second Straight Day, Back To Within 100 Points of Its Record Close

The Toronto Stock Exchange was up for a second-straight session Friday, even with commodity prices and sectors mixed, as today's Canadian GDP data was seen "further extending the hike runway" while talk of Canada being in a recession was played down.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 240.87, points or 0.7%, to 34,758.57, adding to the 105 points gained Thursday, on some relief that interest rates are unlikely to be lifted soon, which would increase borrowing costs for many companies. This leaves the index within a 100 points of Monday's record close of 34,830.Among sectors, Energy was down 1.15%, the only one to fall by more than 1%, with oil prices weaker. Info Tech gained near 4.7% and the Battery Metals Index was up by 3.7%.Base Metals was up 0.4%, helped by a higher gold price, as Rosenberg Research published 'Gold Miners: A Tactical Opening After the Pullback?' in which it said gold's pullback has "de-rated the miners, creating a high-beta tactical opportunity if macro headwinds start to fade."Among key takeaways, Rosenberg Senior Markets Strategist Mehmet Beceren said gold's pullback looks more like a short-term macro unwinding as the structural story remains intact. Higher oil prices, a firmer U.S. dollar, and rising bond yields have pressured bullion, but central bank demand, fiscal risk, and geopolitical fragmentation remain intact, he noted.Beceren said gold miners may now offer a tactical high-beta entry point. The stocks have de-rated alongside spot gold, yet earnings power remains strong with bullion still above $4,000 per ounce; any easing in the U.S. dollar, yields, and energy-cost pressures could revive margins and multiples, he added.On the economics front, earlier Friday Canadian GDP came in sharply below expectations for the first quarter, edging down 0.1% on an annualized rate to mark a second consecutive quarterly decline following a revised 1% ) drop in Q4, down from the originally reported drop of 0.6%. Well below, as RBC Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen noted, preliminary estimates of monthly output through March released a month ago that were pointing to growth closer to a 2% rate in Q1.Although the Q1 GDP decline is very small, two consecutive quarters of GDP decline are "historically unusual", Janzen said. But underlying details, for a second consecutive quarter, look firmer than what would be typically expected at, say, the beginning of a recession, he added.The data will still likely put more focus on the May labor market data in the week ahead, Janzen said, noting employment numbers have also softened in recent months, and the unemployment rate increased into April. "But we continue to think underlying details in both the labor market and GDP data are better than headline growth number suggest," he added.Janzen said Canada's economic outlook remains contingent on U.S. international trade policy remaining broadly stable and the oil price shock continues to cut into household purchasing power. But he looks for the unemployment rate to drift gradually lower this year and for per-capita GDP growth to continue to broadly improve.Separately, Simon Deeley and Jason Daw at RBC Dominion Securities in a 'Canada Rates Strategy' note said Bank of Canada hike pricing is being reduced and pushed further out. This is the logical move following weaker recent results from the three key macro metrics: labor market, inflation and output, they added. Today's softer GDP result and "ever so slightly resulting in a technical recession", is at odds with where monthly GDP figures were indicating prior to the data, the duo noted. "We saw some discrepancy between lackluster labour market performance in Q1 (unemployment rate remaining sticky high, hours worked flat) and the GDP tracking, but today's GDP result reduces that considerably," they said.According to Deeley and Daw, they had discussed the extending runway for hikes following the softer April inflation data and today's data reinforces that view. The BoC flagged risk scenarios to both cuts and hikes at the April meeting, though more convincing on the hike side, but their overarching message was one of comfort with where policy was positioned.. Small but meaningful slack in the labor and product markets combine with underlying inflation roughly on the 2% target to provide little impetus for the BoC to move off their current setting at the bottom-end of the 2.25-3.25% neutral range, they added.National Bank Financial economists Taylor Schleich, Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme asked if the description of the Canadian economy in a 'technical recession' accurate, and should we be concerned? "Not really," they said. First, the trio noted, the 0.1% annualized contraction is so small that there is a risk that, after revision, it will cross back over the growth threshold. Secondly, they noted, while today's data is "undoubtedly disappointing", there is a key variable that must be taken into account when analyzing Canadian GDP data: the population. Due to the ongoing slowdown in immigration decided by Ottawa, the country's population was smaller in the first quarter of 2026 than in the fourth quarter of 2025. This means that real GDP per capita growth was largely positive (+0.9%) in the last quarter and has been on an upward trend for two years.Of commodities, gold traded higher for a second day midafternoon Friday as the dollar weakened on expectations the U.S. war on Iran is nearing an end, pushing oil prices lower and easing inflation worries that have pushed up the currency. Gold for July delivery was up US$60.70 to US$4,593.10 per ounce.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at a six-week low amid reports the U.S. and Iran will extend their tenuous ceasefire while a Trump Administration official said the two sides are nearing a deal to end the war. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$1.54 to settle at US$87.36 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while July Brent oil was down US$1.74 to US$91.97.

TSX up Near 70 Points at Midday as Tech Sector Soars

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 67 points at midday in choppy trade, boosted by a tech sector that is up 5%.Sentiment is also higher on renewed hopes for a Middle East deal, with U.S. President Trump saying the U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted.Energy and utilities are the biggest decliners, down 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.The focus was on the release of Canadian GDP data this morning, which TD Economics described as a "a disappointing report." According to TD, the surge in first quarter imports was expected to drag on growth, but with residential investment, government spending and non-residential structures investment all posting contractions, there was no room for growth. But, TD said, the wedge between the industry and expenditure measures of GDP, together with the strong flash estimate for April, suggest that growth should bounce back in the second quarter."The disappointing first quarter figure likely overstates the weakness in the economy as net trade remains noisy and materially subtracted from first quarter growth. Domestic demand growth posted a small contraction but has vacillated between growth and small contractions since late 2024. Looking to Q2, some bounce-back should be expected. Nonetheless, the Canadian economy continues to operate well below capacity, posting a contraction in Q4 and no growth in Q1, flirting with a technical recession. This suggests that ample slack remains, providing some offset to the inflationary forces coming from the energy shock. Our view remains that as the economy continues to operate below capacity, and if the inflation shock fades, the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines."CIBC said overall this was a "very weak report from most angles" that shows trade uncertainty and tariffs are continuing to hold back growth, while consumers have little ammunition left for spending ahead, and interest-sensitive sectors are lagging. The report missed the BoC's MPR projection for 1.5% growth. But CIBC said the positive momentum implied by the April reading, seeing a 0.4% month over month increase, will still leave policymakers on hold, with growth in Q2 likely to receive a lift as government investment normalizes. "Our base case also assumes progress towards reducing some tariffs (namely aluminum and possibly steel) in the coming months, and if the oil price shock starts to fade over that period as well, GDP will return to sustainable growth for the rest of the year," it added.

TSX Up 140 Pts, Adding to 105 Pts Gained Thursday When It Rose For First Time Since Last Monday's Record Close

Canada's March GDP Falls 0.1%, Misses Expectations; April Seen Rebounding 0.4%

Canadian real gross domestic product edged down 0.1% month over month in March, partially offsetting February's increase of 0.2% and driven by contractions in goods-producing industries, said the country's statistical agency on Friday.March's contraction was worse than a 0.1% month-over-month consensus expansion provided by MUFG.Goods-producing industries contracted 0.8% in March for the fifth decline in the last six months, noted Statistics Canada. The decrease in March was in large part a reflection of lower activity in the mining, quarrying, and oil and natural gas extraction sector, and in the construction sector. Services-producing industries tempered the decline, edging up 0.1% in March. Overall, eight of the 20 industrial sectors contracted in March.Advance information indicates that real GDP increased 0.4% in month over month April, added StatsCan. Increases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing and transportation, and warehousing were partially offset by decreases in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting.Real GDP was unchanged in Q1 quarter over quarter, after declining 0.2% in Q4 2025. Higher imports of goods, particularly gold, were offset by accumulations of business inventories. Decreased business and government capital investment was counterbalanced by higher household spending, as final domestic demand edged 0.1% lower.GDP and Income and Expenditure Accounts measure the production of goods and services in the Canadian economy as well as the incomes arising from this production and expenditure on the production. GDP represents the unduplicated value of goods and services produced during the reference period and are available for domestic consumption, investment or export.