S&P/TSX Composite

TSX Up Another 20 Pts Early Tuesday After Closing Up In Eight of Last Nine Full Sessions

Market Chatter: Canada's Liberals Secure Majority Government

Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals secured a majority government Monday following byelection wins in two Toronto-area ridings, Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale, CTV News is reporting.Then, the report noted, in the early morning on Tuesday, just after midnight ET, they won the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, where the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois were neck-and-neck.According to CTV News, the result in Ontario was largely expected. Both of them are considered Liberal strongholds. Physician and health-care executive Danielle Martin took University-Rosedale, and former provincial NDP deputy leader Dolly Begum won Scarborough Southwest. Tatiana Auguste clinched the win for the Liberals in Quebec, taking a traditional Bloc Quebecois riding for the Liberals.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Canada's Liberals Party Secure Majority Government After Clinching 3 Byelections Overnight Monday

TSX Closer: The Index is Up For the Eighth Time In Nine Sessions, Led By Interest-Rate Sensitive Sectors

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Monday, rising for the eighth time in nine sessions, helped by interest rate sensitive sectors like Information Technology and Financials as Desjardins said its "new path" for oil prices would tend to suggest a slightly earlier tightening in monetary policy in 2027 than previously assumed.The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite closed up 183.48 points to 33,879.24, also buoyed by Base Metals and Energy, even with gold and oil prices off recent highs. Among sectors, Info Tech was up 4.5% and Financials up near 1%, while Base Metals was 1.25% higher.According to FactSet, as of Friday, the TSX month-to-date was up 2.83% and year-to-date up 1,983.00 points, or 6.25%. This left the index off 2.45% under its record close of 34,541.27 set on March 2.Desjardins was among those to publish a note looking at Middle East developments and their implications for its oil assumptions. Desjardins economists Jimmy Jean and Marc-Antoine Dumont said their base case forecast for oil prices now assumes a disruption that lasts longer than anticipated in the March Economic and Financial Outlook."Shortfalls seem likely to extend through mid-2026 and we believe that they will be only partially offset by emergency reserve releases and incremental gains in production elsewhere," the pair wrote. "On net, we estimate a cumulative supply loss of roughly 550-million barrels over the coming year. Production is expected to recover gradually but with a lag, implying a period of tighter inventories and elevated prices even if tensions cool."Reflecting this altered supply path, Desjardins now leans towards a revised oil price outlook, seeing benchmark WTI crude at an average US$100 per barrel through April and May vs. US$80 to US$85 in March, before declining gradually. "These projections remain highly sensitive to the volatile and unpredictable nature of the conflict and the actions of the parties involved, which could materially affect our forecasts," Desjardins said.If this path materializes, Desjardins added, headline inflation in Canada would be pushed higher, but underlying inflation pressures would remain more contained, given the current starting point of excess capacity and soft labor market. "The terms-of-trade and energy capex boost still needs to be weighed against the hit to household finances and confidence, as well as the margin compression in energy-intensive sectors," they noted.Desjardins said its new path for oil prices would tend to suggest a slightly earlier tightening in monetary policy in 2027 than previously assumed, but not a material shift in the policy path at this time. Desjardins added it will publish its detailed estimates in an Economic and Financial Outlook next week, taking into account latest developments.Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil tested the US$100 per barrel mark before falling back after the United States said it will blockade Iran's ports after weekend peace talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement to end hostilities. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up $2.51 to settle at US$99.08 per barrel, after earlier touching US$105.63, while June Brent oil was up US$3.92 to US$99.12.Gold prices weakened for a second session Monday as the dollar rose after weekend talks between the United States and Iran failed to reach a peace deal, leaving the Strait of Hormuz blocked and continuing the largest-ever oil supply shock. Gold for May delivery was last seen down $19.90 to US$4,767.50 per ounce.

TSX up 78 Points at Midday, Led by Gains in Info Tech, Energy

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 78 points at midday with info tech (+3.7%) and energy (+1.7%), posting the biggest gains.Utilities, down 1%, is the worst performer.Oil prices were back above US$100.00 per barrel on Monday after ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran failed to end their war and President Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But Canadian stocks have recouped Monday's early losses, and look set to extend a run of seven wins in the last eight sessions leading in to today.February building permits fell $1.1 billion (-8.4%) to $12.1 billion, with the decline led by non-residential (-$1.3 billion), reports StatsCan.In company news, GFL Environmental (GFL.TO) was at last look down 9.5% after saying Monday it was acquiring Secure Waste Infrastructure (SES.TO) for $24.75 per Secure share, for an enterprise value of $6.4 billion. Secure operates a waste-management business in Western Canada and North Dakota.

TSX Down More Than 100 Pts; Index Was Up Seven of Last Eight Full Sessions

Both Nasdaq 100 Futures S&P Futures Down Near 0.6%

S&P Futures Down 0.6% As US Threatens To Block Hormuz After Peace Talks With Iran Failed Over the Weekend

TSX Closer: Index Back To Winning Ways as It Posts the Seventh Rise In Eight Sessions

The Toronto Stock Exchange returned to winning ways Friday, rising for the seventh session in the last eight, as investors seem to still see fundamental value in the broader market, even amid the noise created by continuing tariff disputes and lingering geopolitical tensions.The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 218.05 points, or 0.65%, to 33,695.76. Ironically, perhaps, the index was led higher by Base Metals, up near 1.7%, and Energy, up 1.5%, even with commodity prices lower and with Rosenberg Research flagging a bearish bias on WTI Crude Oil possibly continuing into August and only a short-term relief rally in gold "within a still-developing medium-term downtrend".BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter, in his regular 'Talking Points' note, noted the Middle East conflict began nearly six weeks ago. He said "despite the wild swings in oil prices over that period, perhaps the big surprise is what little impact the war made on other financial markets." Porter noted the gold-heavy TSX was down about 2% from six weeks ago, but added "that's barely a ripple", given that bullion prices are down more than 9%, "shattering gold's reputation as a safe harbour".On the economic front today, most focus here was on the release of employment data for March. But Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, published a note entitled 'Markets Rightly Ignored Canadian Jobs' after the data released early Friday showed Canada added 14,000 jobs, with "mixed details". Among highlights to his note, Holt noted "sickies and weather remained as drag factors" for the month, which "may point to later gains". Holt also noted wages "exploded" but with "two-sided interpretations" as Statistics Canada said wages were distorted by compositional shifts.According to Holt, Bank of Canada watchers should continue to fade backward data. "Markets largely ignored Canadian jobs numbers as they should. They're backward looking and peering into the abyss where surging commodity prices in a commodity producing country dominate attention alongside the outlook for the US economy and trade policy," Holt said.On commodities, this week's issue of 'Technicals with Dave' from Rosenberg Research focuses on commodities. Author Walter Murphy notes the 14-commodity S&P GSCI Equal Weight Select Index continued to post multi-year highs since the last Rosenberg Research commentary. But, he says, its weekly Coppock Curve is leading that for the S&P GSCI Commodity Index, and he adds it would "not be surprising to see it move into a confirmed downtrend either this week or next". As a result, Murphy says, last week's rally through 592-630 resistance could prove to be a "last gasp". That range is expected to provide initial support for a coming pullback. Additional support areas of note are the recent 566-551 gap and the 521 breakout point, he notes.On WTI Crude Oil, Murphy notes in its March commentary, the research noted there was important resistance in the US$87.64 to US$95.03 per barrel range and that the weekly Coppock Curve had the potential to continue higher over the next four to five weeks. In the five weeks since then, he says, oil initially rallied above resistance intra-day but quickly settled back and has had a difficult time pulling away from resistance on a daily closing basis. "While we could easily make the case that oil decisively left that range behind late last week, Wednesday's reversal casts doubt on the decisive nature of the breakout," he adds.Murphy says the Coppock indicator "still has some life left in it, but probably not much". His sense is that it could peak within the next two to four weeks and be in a confirmed downtrend by late May. "From there, it would not be a surprise to see the resulting bearish bias continue well into July, and potentially into August," he adds.Murphy notes previous US$87.64 to US$95.03 per barrel resistance is now support. Below that, Rosenberg Research would look to the US$84 area and then the US$78.40 breakout point. He says there is a "decent amount of chart and Fibonacci resistance" in the US$113 to US$129 area on an "arithmetic chart". The US$129 level is the point where the current rally from December's low will be 61.8% of the 2020-2022 uptrend, he adds.On gold, "what a difference a couple of weeks makes", says Murphy. He noted the early-March comment noted gold, which was then at US$5,149 per ounce, had been on a point-and-figure "buy" since September, but the weekly Coppock Curve was positioned to be in a confirmed downtrend by the end of that month. Murphy noted the resulting bearish bias could continue into June, and gold subsequently broke down below US$5,000 and continued to as low as US$4,098 before recovering. He says that decline generated a point-and-figure "sell;" the Coppock indicator has continued its downtrend.Murphy adds: "The overbought and deteriorating Coppock Curve is still on pace to be weak into late May or early June. At the same time, the oversold and improving daily indicator could begin a topping process by the middle of this month. This combination is an indication that any further strength in the days immediately ahead will prove to be a short-term relief rally within a still-developing medium-term downtrend."Murphy notes previous US$5,064 to US$4,700 per ounce support will likely act as strong resistance to the relief rally. Second resistance is on the order of US$5,419 to US$5,608.He says gold's recent decline to US$4,098 per ounce was only a brief break of US$4,550 to US$4,275, adding that breach is not regarded as decisive, and US$4,550 to US$4,275 is still important support. "That said, a decline back through $4,098 would be a trigger for further weakness to the $3,885 area, and potentially beyond."Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower amid doubts over the state of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States as Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed down US$1.30 to settle at US$96.57 per barrel, while June Brent oil was down US$0.60 to US$95.32.Gold futures had eased by midafternoon on Friday even as the dollar weakened after a report showed U.S. inflation surged in March on higher gasoline prices, cutting hopes for a cut to interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Gold for May delivery was down US$40.00 to US$4,778.00 an ounce.

TSX up 150 Points at Midday With Miners, Utilities, Leading Gains

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 150 points at midday with most sectors higher.The best performers are miners and utilities, both up 1.4%. Industrials and telecoms are down 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively.Statistics Canada Friday reported employers added 14,000 jobs in March, n line with economists' expectations, leaving the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. Average hourly wages rose 4.7% year-over-year, up from February's 3.9%.Canada's labor market, as Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins, said, showed "some signs of stabilization", however, there are buts about the data. Friday's Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed the Canadian economy added back 14,000 jobs in March, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.7%. But, Mendes noted, all of the new positions were part-time, with full-time jobs "stable" after a "devastating" decline of 108,000 in February. Mendes also noted while the year-over-year pace of average hourly earnings accelerated in March, the pickup was due to compositional effects as Statistics Canada said average hourly earnings rose just 3.6% when keeping the composition fixed, suggesting wages "aren't actually heating up."The Desjardins tracking for Q1 gross domestic product remains around 1.5% to 2.0%, roughly in line with the Bank of Canada's January forecast. Overall, Mendes said, there's nothing in Friday's LFS to suggest that the economy is perking up. Despite upgrading its oil price forecasts, Desjardins continues to believe central bankers will remain on the sidelines for the remainder of this year, given persistent slack in the economy.

TSX Up More Than 210 Pts; Comes After Index Lost Near 140 Pts on Thursday, For Its First Loss In Seven Sessions

Canada Posts Small Jobs Gain in March, as Expected

Canada's employment was little changed in March, up 14,000 or 0.1% month over month, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, said the country's statistical agency in Friday's Labour Force Survey (LFS).The job increases were in line with a forecast 14,500 increase and 6.7% unemployement rate provided by MUFG.Across the major age groups, employment held steady and the unemployment rate was little changed, noted Statistics Canada in a statement.Employment rose in the 'other services' industry, which includes repair and maintenance services, by 15,000 and 1.9% month over month, and it also increased in natural resources, up 10,000 and 3.0% month over month. Employment declined in finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing, or down 11,000 and 0.8%.Fewer people were employed in British Columbia (-19,000; -0.7%), while employment rose in Manitoba (+11,000; +1.5%), Saskatchewan (+5,800; +0.9%) and Nova Scotia (+3,900; +0.7%).Average hourly wages among employees increased 4.7% (+$1.68 to $37.73) on a year-over-year basis in March, following growth of 3.9% in February, not seasonally adjusted, added StatsCan.Recent increases in average hourly wages were partly due to a shift in the composition of employment. Using a method that holds constant the composition of employees by occupation and job tenure, average hourly wages grew by 3.6% on a year-over-year basis in March, similar to the rate of growth observed in January (+3.6%) and February 2025 (+3.5%), stated the Ottawa-based agency.The participation rate -- the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work -- was unchanged at 64.9%. On a year-over-year basis, the labor force participation rate was down 0.4 percentage point.The LFS estimates are based on a sample and are therefore subject to sampling variability. As a result, monthly estimates will show more variability than trends observed over longer time periods. This analysis focuses on differences between estimates that are statistically significant at the 68% confidence level.LFS estimates at the Canada level do not include the territories. The LFS estimates are the first in a series of labor market indicators released by StatsCan, which includes indicators from programs such as the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH); Employment Insurance Statistics; and the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey.

Brief: Canada's Average Hourly Wages Among Employees Accelerate by 4.7% Y/Y in March

Brief: Canada's Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 6.7% in March; MUFG Says Consensus Saw at 6.8%

Brief: Canada Gains 14,000, or 0.1% M/M, Jobs in March: MUFG Says Consensus Saw 14,500 Increase

Nasdaq 100 and S&P Futures Both Flat To Slightly Higher Ahead of U.S. and Iran Peace Talks Tomorrow, US CPI Data Today

S&P Futures Flat Ahead of U.S. and Iran Peace Talks Tomorrow, US CPI Data Today

TSX Closer: The Index Falls For The First Time In Seven Sessions

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Thursday, the first drop in seven sessions, on some profit taking, but also on wariness around continuing geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and lingering concerns around inflation with a recent spike in oil prices seen adding to existing tariff-related pressures on global economies.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 142.86 points, or 0.4%, to 33,477.71, even as losses were capped with the Battery Metals Index up 4.5%. Losers were led down by Telecom, down near 3.4%, and Info Tech down near 2.1% as stock pickers weigh inflation risks and Fed minutes showed officials are open to rate hikes if inflation stays above target. Tech stocks are sensitive to interest rate changes due to their reliance on high capital spending. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, and could curb investment in innovation and expansion.RBC Economics, in featured analysis on the United States, noted it has been just over one year since 'Liberation Day', when the U.S. administration announced sweeping tariffs on all trade partners to reduce imbalances. But, RBC said, the trade deficit has not narrowed while trade has been diverted.At present, RBC added, all eyes are focused on a new shock: The conflict in the Middle East, which has sent oil prices soaring to near-2022 highs when Russia invaded Ukraine. "Still," the bank said, "beneath the surface, the ramifications of tariffs are building, and spiking oil prices will add to pre-existing tariff price pressures with both core and headline inflation rising in tandem."In a separate, related but more positive note for Canadians, RBC noted a rebalancing in travel from this country continues as U.S. cross border trips decline amid Canadian anger stemming from the U.S. targeting of certain industries here for tariffs and by President Trump calling Canada the 51st state .RBC added a sustained pullback in trips to the United States is increasingly being offset by rising travel to other destinations within Canada as well as abroad. The bank noted travel to the U.S. fell 25.4% in 2025 to 29.1-million trips with weakness persisting into early 2026. Dollars that might have been spent abroad are being recycled domestically with total tourism spending up 1.7% in 2025.RBC also noted the shift kept Canada as a net exporter of travel services in 2025 as spending stayed closer to home, and that tourism GDP grew 4.8% in Q4, outpacing a broader economy that contracted 0.6%, marking the third consecutive quarter of outperformance.Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate closed higher Thursday as Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. WTI did fall off session highs after Israel said it will begin talks with Lebanon. Iran had maintained a two-week ceasefire agreement reached with the U.S. did include a pledge to halt Israeli attacks on Lebanon. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up $3.46 to settle at US$97.87 per barrel after touching US$102.70 earlier. June Brent oil was last seen up $0.96 to US$95.71.Gold traded higher by midafternoon Thursday as the dollar weakened after the United States reported a key inflation measure rose, and while the U.S. and Iran argued over the terms of their two-week ceasefire deal. Gold for May delivery was up $36.10 to US$4,813.30 per ounce.

TSX Down 72 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Lower

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 72 points at midday, with most sectors lower.The worst performers are the telecoms sector and energy, down 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively.Financials and industrials are the biggest gainers, up 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.The tenuous two-week ceasefire in the Middle East is holding, albeit by a thread, as attacks on Lebanon continue and Iran says traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted to around a dozen ships per day (versus over 100 before the war). Formal peace talks begin Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan to try to bridge the seemingly large differences between the U.S.'s 15-point and Iran's 10-point plans.In company news, G2 Goldfields (GTWO.TO) has jumped near 74% to $10.46 after G Mining Ventures (GMIN.TO) said this morning it is acquiring the company in a $3.0 billion all-share transaction with G2 shareholders receiving 0.212 GMIN common shares per G2 share held. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of this year.BlackBerry (BB.TO) is up 11% to $5.45 after it reported better than expected revenues for the fourth quarter, led by its QNX unit, and forecast better than expected growth in fiscal 2027.

With Two of Three Byelections Considered 'Safe' Wins For Liberals Next Week, and With Latest Conservative MP Defection, PM Carney May Be Set To Head Majority Govt