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IMF Lowers 2026 Growth Outlook for Most Asian Economies Amid Middle East War

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth estimates for most Asian economies for 2026, according to a recent release.The organization revised down its growth outlook for emerging Asian economies to 4.9% from a previous prospect of 5% in January, which was before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.Growth for the group will continue to decline to 4.8% in 2027, the IMF said.The organization projects China's economy growing 4.4% this year and 4% next year, while India will post growth of 6.5% for the next two years.Cumulative growth among Southeast Asia's five biggest economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, will fall to 3.7% in 2026 from 4.9%, although this will recover to 4.7% next year, the organization said.Individually, Vietnam will post the strongest growth of 7.1%, although this is still lower than the 8% growth last year.The rest of the economies in the group will also see lower growth, with Indonesia at 5%, Malaysia at 4.7%, the Philippines at 4.1%, and Thailand at 1.5%.Among advanced economies in Asia-Pacific, Korea's growth will rise to 1.9% from 1% last year, while that of Australia will remain flat at 2%.Japan's growth will slow down to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027 from 1.2% last year, according to the IMF.Taiwan will see lower expansion of 5.2% from 8.7% in 2025, while Singapore's growth will come to 3.5%, down from 5% last year.Hong Kong will also observe lower growth of 2.4%, compared to 3.5% in 2025.The IMF forecasts global economic growth to weaken to 3.1% this year from 3.4% last year, accounting for the impacts of the continued conflict in the Middle East.

Market Chatter: China Increasingly Looks to Southeast Asia for Chip Tool Imports Amid Tighter US Controls

The share of Malaysia and Singapore in China's chipmaking equipment imports surged in 2025, exceeding those from the US, Nikkei Asia reported Wednesday.Imports from the Southeast Asian nations hit an all-time high, with those from Singapore rising more than 17% year over year to $5.7 billion and those from Malaysia more than doubling to $3.4 billion, according to the report.The increase is driven by the expansion of US chip equipment makers' manufacturing capacity in Southeast Asia to cater to non-US clients, the report cited Needham & Co. semiconductor analyst Charles Shi as saying.US imports dropped more than 34% to about $2 billion, setting an eight-year low, the report cited Chinese customs data as saying.Increased tariffs and export controls targeting China's chipmaking industry under President Donald Trump have contributed to the slowdown, according to the report.However, China continues to be a key revenue source for major US chip equipment producers last year, the report said.The Netherlands and Japan are still China's main foreign sources of key semiconductor manufacturing machines by shipment origin, Nikkei Asia said.Meanwhile, China's domestic chipmaking equipment manufacturing industry is seeing material expansion amid government efforts promoting locally produced tools, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Market Chatter: Singapore's New Home Sales Rise in March

New home sales in Singapore rose in March, backed by new project launches, according to a report by Bloomberg on Wednesday, citing data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority.In March, 1,300 new private units were sold, compared to 729 a year earlier, the report showed.The sales were driven by the Pinery Residences and River Modern launches, the report noted.Meanwhile, private home prices were up 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, the report added.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Singapore's Changi Airport Climbs to 4th Busiest International Hub in 2025

Singapore's Changi Airport was the fourth busiest international airport in the world in 2025,according to data released by Airports Council International on Tuesday.The city's state airport served around 69.4 million international passengers, up 3.5% from 2024. Dubai International Airport maintained its top spot with 95.2 million international passengers served.In 2025, international passenger traffic rose 5.9% year over year to 4.0 billion, the data showed.

Kin Global Eyeing Singapore IPO

Kin Global, a Singapore-based sports event manager, is looking to raise around SG$10.1 million in gross proceeds through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Singapore Exchange's Catalist board, according to a company prospectus published on Tuesday.The company will have an estimated market capitalization of around SG$44.9 million post listing and will use the IPO to scale into events tourism.The company is seeking to make one million shares public, priced at SG$0.23 per share and 23.9 million placement shares at SG$0.23 each.

Singapore's Economic Growth Weakens in Q1

Singapore's economy slowed down in the first quarter, largely missing expectations.The gross domestic product grew by 4.6% year on year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.7% increase, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry on Tuesday.The GDP is way below the 5.9% rise forecasted by economists surveyed by Reuters.On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the GDP shrank by 0.3%, swinging from the 1.3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.The MTI said Singapore's economy stayed resilient during the period, but the impact of the Middle East conflict is expected to reflect in the coming quarters.Among sectors, the manufacturing sector climbed 5% year on year during the quarter, weaker than the 11.4% jump in the prior quarter.The construction sector expanded by 9% from a year earlier, higher than the 4.6% rise in the fourth quarter of 2025.As for services sectors, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and storage collectively rose by 6.7% year on year, an extension from the 6.8% acceleration in the preceding quarter. Information and communications, finance and insurance, and professional services sectors grew 3.9% year on year, higher than the previous quarter's 3.7% growth. Meanwhile, other services, including accommodation and food services, real estate, administrative and support services, rose 2.3% from a year earlier, easing from the 2.9% climb in the previous quarter.Despite the risks of the war in Iran, the Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its GDP growth outlook of between 2% and 4%. The MAS moderately tightened its monetary policy, raising the rate of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band amid the global oil price hikes and the threat of higher inflation, which is expected to rise to a range of 1.5% and 2.5% from the previous forecast of 1% and 2%.Deepali Bhargava, ING's regional head of research for Asia-Pacific, said it is likely that the pressures related to the rise of oil prices can be offset by demand for artificial intelligence technology, as well as recent fiscal measures."Taken together, these factors underpin our GDP growth forecast of 3.3% year on year, which lies on the stronger side of the MAS's projected range and closer to the upper end of its midpoint," Bhargava said.

Singapore Shares Rise as US-Iran Peace Hopes Remain; Avepoint Up 7%

Singapore shares rose on Tuesday, tracking regional gains, backed by fresh hopes of the US and Iran finally reaching an agreement to end hostilities.The Straits Times Index (STI), a key benchmark for the Singapore Exchange, ranged between 4,992.64 and 5,020.59 throughout the day. It ended the session at 5,007.57, up 23.40 points or 0.5% compared to Monday's close.In economic news, The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has tightened its monetary policy settings amidst the ongoing Iran conflict, according to April's policy statement.On the corporate front, shares of Avepoint (SGX:AVP) were up nearly 7% at the close as it booked a revenue of $419 million during 2025.Octopus (APAC) (SGX:43A) signed an agreement with Spain's Grupo Osborne, to be the latter's principle distributor under a five-year mandate.Meanwhile, Vin's Holdings (SGX:VIN) signed an agreement with Volt Auto to become an authorized channel partner for China Dongfeng Motor Industry Impo & Exp's latest electric vehicle lineup.

Sovereign Rating Risks Grow for Southeast Asia Amid Middle East Conflict, S&P Says

Southeast Asia's sovereign ratings face risks from the Middle East conflict, with persistent energy disruption to weigh on their fiscal and external metrics, S&P Global Ratings said in a Tuesday release.Economies reliant on imported energy could see strains in their robust growth outlook under severe long-term effects of the war, limiting economic support for ratings in South and Southeast Asia, credit analyst Rain Yin said.Damage to the energy infrastructure in the Middle East will prolong the normalization of oil and gas production levels even with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, S&P said.Southeast Asian sovereigns with weaker rating buffers could see their credit quality drop under persistent energy market disruption, with government subsidies for consumers and businesses possibly increasing, Yin said.The depth of the damage to sovereigns' fiscal positions will depend on the ability of governments to reduce expenses or delay spending plans, S&P said.

Middle East Escalation Could Cost Asia Up to $299 Billion, UNDP Warns

The ongoing military escalation in the Middle East could inflict economic losses of up to $299 billion across Asia and the Pacific, as higher fuel, freight and input costs ripple through regional economies, UNDP's latest assessment report release Tuesday showed.The report said the shock is weakening household purchasing power, increasing food insecurity, straining public budgets and undermining livelihoods, particularly in countries heavily reliant on imported energy and food, as well as those exposed to Gulf trade routes, labor markets and remittance flows.It estimated that under a 28-day disruption scenario, regional output losses could range between $97 billion and $299 billion, equivalent to 0.3% to 0.8% of GDP, with South Asia facing the most pronounced impact.Around 8.8 million people across 14 countries could fall into poverty, including more than 5 million in Iran, where the poverty rate may rise from 36% to 41.5%, according to the simulations.The report, prepared as of April 9, draws on inputs from 22 UNDP country offices covering 36 countries, alongside modelling and external data. It noted that outcomes will depend heavily on the duration and intensity of the conflict, with risks rising further if disruptions persist.

Market Chatter: Singapore's Interbank Rates Near Four-Year Lows as War Inflows Surge

Singapore's interbank rates are nearing four-year lows as conflict in the Middle East boosts capital inflows into the city-state, according to a report by Bloomberg on Tuesday.Foreign inflows have been backed by the outperforming local currency, further consolidated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightening its policy settings on Tuesday, the report noted.The Singapore dollar has outperformed other regional currencies since the outbreak of war between the US and Israel, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

MAS Tightens Singapore's Monetary Policy Amid Inflation Risks

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has tightened its monetary policy settings amidst the ongoing Iran conflict, according to April's policy statement released Tuesday.The central bank maintained the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, with no change to the width of the band or the level at which it was centered, the statement said.Following the breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran, Singapore could be impacted by energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions.Meanwhile, 2026 forecasts for MAS Core Inflation and CPI-All Items inflation have been revised to between 1.5% and 2.5%."There ⁠are considerable risks around the outlook for inflation and growth," MAS said, adding that the Middle East situation is developing and remains highly uncertain.The central bank says the city-state's GDP growth is likely to slow down, with output gap expected to average around 0%.Core inflation was steady at 1.2% year over year during the January-February period, unchanged from the preceding quarter.

Singapore's GDP Grows at Slower Pace of 4.6% in Q1

Singapore's economy grew by 4.6% year over year in the first quarter of the year, moderating from the 5.7% growth in the previous quarter, according to data released by the Singapore Department of Statistics on Tuesday.On a quarter-over-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the city-state's economy contracted by 0.3%, following a 1.3% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2025.Growth was led by a 5% year-over-year increase in the manufacturing sector in Q1, which was slower than the 11.4% expansion in the previous quarter.The construction sector expanded by 9% year over year, following a 4.6% growth in the previous quarter.Growth in the services-producing industries slightly cooled to 4.7% from 4.8%.

Singapore's GDP Growth Slows to 4.6% in Q1

Singapore Shares Plummet, Track Regional Losses Following Collapse of US-Iran Peace Talks

Singapore shares sank on Monday, tracking broader regional losses after the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad ended without a resolution.The Straits Times Index (STI), a key benchmark for the Singapore Exchange, ranged between 4,965.48 and 4,984.17 throughout the day. It ended the session at 4,984.17, down 5.24 points or 0.1% compared to Friday's close.Following the breakdown in discussions, the US military said that it will block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, with Tehran terming the US blockade as "illegal".On the corporate fund, shares of Mary Chia (SGX:5OX) slumped over 9% at the close as it received a statutory demand from Fullink Capital in respect of an alleged sum of around SG$902,640.Medtecs International (SGX:546) was down over 2% as the company pulled the plug on its joint venture with Shijiazhuang Hongray, following a strategic review of plans and prevailing market conditions.Meanwhile, CapitaLand Investment (SGX:9CI) closed its CapitaLand Asia Pacific Credit Program II (ACP II), securing $320 million in total equity commitments.

Asia Week Ahead: GDP Growth; Trade Data; and Inflation Prints

For the week ahead in Asia, markets will be focused on a slate of monthly data that will help investors assess how the Middle East conflict is feeding into economic conditions across the region.The week opens Monday with New Zealand's services sector survey and India's March inflation print, as well as a scheduled speech by the Bank of Japan's governor that could offer clues on the timing of a possible rate hike.Attention then shifts Tuesday to China's trade figures and a monetary policy decision in Singapore, alongside business and consumer confidence readings from Australia and industrial production data from Japan.Midweek brings trade and labor market data from India and South Korea, while Thursday is headlined by China's first-quarter GDP report and a broad batch of activity indicators.Friday rounds off the week with Malaysia's preliminary first-quarter GDP and inflation data, as well as Singapore's March trade numbers, including non-oil exports.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 13The week kicked off with a report indicating New Zealand's services sector shrank for the third consecutive month as the conflict in the Middle East impacted consumer confidence.The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for March came in at 46.0, down 1.6 points from February and 6.6 points lower than the long-term average of 52.8."So poor was the PSI reading that our combined PMI/PSI indicator is suggesting the economy could soon be contracting," said Stephen Toplis, BNZ's head of research.Outside of New Zealand, markets will be on the look out for India's March inflation print.A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated that the pace of price increase may have quickened during the month to around 3.5% year on year from the 3.2% recorded in February.The March print will give observers the first real look on how the Indian economy is faring after war broke out in the Middle East.While overall inflation is expected to rise, core inflation--which excludes the impact of some items--is likely to clock in at below 4%, giving the Reserve Bank of India room to shy away from a hawkish stance near term, economists at DBS said, the Wall Street Journal reported.Meanwhile, markets will also be closely following a scheduled speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on the possible timing of a rate hike. The central bank is reportedly considering a rate hike this month to counter price pressures from the Iran war.Elsewhere, Indonesia reported a 6.5% annual rise in retail sales during February, quickening from the 5.7% growth witnessed a month prior.TUESDAY, April 14China's trade figures will capture headlines Tuesday.The world's second-largest economy could report a trade surplus of $112 billion in March, higher than the $91 billion captured in February, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Despite the rising surplus, economists at ING said they expect March export growth to moderate from the figures seen in the first two months of the year.A monetary policy decision and an advance estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter is expected in Singapore.Unlike other economies, Singapore tweaks its currency exchange rate rather than its domestic interest rates to control inflation. While the Monetary Authority of Singapore has not adjusted its policy since April 2025, it is now expected to tighten the valves in response to the Middle East conflict, according to a survey of economists compiled by Bloomberg, CNA Digital reported.Meanwhile, Singapore's economy likely slowed during the first three months of the year due to a pullback in manufacturing activity, the WSJ reported, citing Barclays economists.The city-state's economy expanded 6.9% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025 and by 5% during the entirety of the year.In January, the city-state had upgraded its 2026 forecast to a range of 2% to 4%, with growth outlook raised to 3%. However, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said in March the government will reassess its GDP forecast following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence in Australia are expected.Consumer confidence was near the bottom of its 18-month range in March, and the April survey was shaping up for a bigger drop as consumers reckoned with the implications of the conflict in the Middle East, the National Australia Bank said in a preview.Meanwhile, the March business confidence report should capture the flow through impacts from the energy crisis and higher borrowing costs in Australia, Westpac said."Widespread supply disruptions and soaring energy costs are likely to be reflected in higher business input and output costs," the firm said in a note.Japan's industrial production stats will also be in focus on Tuesday, while India will release wholesale price inflation data the same day.WEDNESDAY, April 15A slew of macro data from India and South Korea will be in the news Wednesday.India will report its trade figures for March which could show a widening of the trade deficit to $32.75 billion from $27.1 billion in the month prior, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Labor data, due the same day, could show unemployment climbed to 5.1% from 4.9% in February, according to another Trading Economics consensus estimate.South Korea will similarly report March labor data and export and import prices.Unemployment in South Korea has been on a downward trajectory since December when it stood at 3.3%. The most recent reading was of 2.9%.Japan's machinery orders stats are also scheduled for release Wednesday.THURSDAY, April 16Markets will turn their attention to a flurry of data coming in from China, including the closely watched GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the year.Analysts place China's Q1 GDP growth rate at 4.9% year on year, rising from the 4.5% recorded in the closing months of 2025, the WSJ reported. Economists at DBS attributed the expected rise in growth to a jump in overseas demand for Chinese goods, the WSJ added.The GDP release will be accompanied by China's house price index, offering an insight into new home prices across 70 cities that markets use as a benchmark. New prices are expected to stay in negative territory, though any moderation would be viewed positively, economists at ING said.Additional releases will include China's industrial production data, retail sales figures, and unemployment stats."Other than industrial production, which we expect to grow around 5.5% YoY, economic activity data is likely to remain rather soft in March," ING said in a preview.Labor data from Australia is also expected Thursday.The National Australia Bank expects the jobless rate to stay at 4.3%, with employment rising by 25,000. "While the survey period captures the escalation in the Middle East conflict, it is likely too early to see a response to this reflected in the data," NAB said in a note.The Reuters Tankan Index for April, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, will be due the same day.FRIDAY, April 17The week rounds off with Malaysia's preliminary GDP growth rate figures for the first quarter of the year.Economists at ANZ expect first-quarter growth to ease to 5.3% from the 6.3% recorded in the final quarter of 2025, the WSJ reported. Despite stronger agriculture output, the Malaysian economy saw industrial and retail activity moderate during the opening months of 2026, the report said, citing ANZ.Malaysia's inflation data is also expected Friday, with Trading Economics forecasting the pace of price increase to quicken to 1.8% year on year from the 1.4% recorded in February.Singapore reports March trade data, including non-oil exports, the same day.

Market Chatter: Singapore Equities Showcase Resilience Amid Global Volatility

Singapore's stocks are expected to reclaim their record high, amid global volatility due to conflict in the Middle East, according to a report by Bloomberg on Monday.While the APAC region has been impacted by the US-Iran war, with global energy prices soaring, Singapore's dollar has been outperforming its regional peers. The city-state's Equity Market Development Program and the key constituents of its main index have added to the appeal, according to the report.According to Daniel Lau, a fund manager at Eastspring Investments, the Equity Market Development Program's valuation support provides the Singapore dollar a safe-haven status, the news outlet reported.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Market Chatter: Singapore to Likely Adjust Monetary Policy Amid Recession Fears

Singapore is likely to tighten its monetary policy at its April 14 review, amid global recession fears, according to a report by Bloomberg News on Monday.Citing a survey in which 15 out of 18 economists expected the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten its policy, the report said that the country's reliance on imported energy exposes it to the crisis in the Middle East.With fuel, transport and electricity costs rising, businesses are likely to face higher input prices, the report added.The MAS is also expected to update its inflation outlook, with the Ministry of Trade slated to release its latest report on economic performance during the first quarter of the year on Tuesday, the report noted.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Trump Declares Immediate U.S. Navy Blockade of Hormuz After Iran Talks Fail

U.S. President Donald Trump warned on social media that the U.S. Navy would immediately begin blockading all ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz after a failed talk with Tehran.Trump said in a Truth Social post on Sunday that while the goal is eventually to reach an "all being allowed to go in, all being allowed to go out" arrangement, Iran has prevented this by citing vague concerns about undisclosed mines."Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, 'There may be a mine out there somewhere,' that nobody knows about but them," Trump wrote.Trump further directed the Navy to intercept any vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran while also ordering the destruction of mines allegedly laid by Iran in the strait and warning that any Iranian attack on U.S. or peaceful vessels would result in them being "BLOWN TO HELL."Meanwhile, Reuters News, citing the U.S. Central Command, reported that the blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports is set to begin at 10 a.m. ET on Monday.The command clarified that freedom of navigation would remain unaffected for ships transiting the strait to non-Iranian ports, with formal notices to be issued to commercial mariners beforehand, the newswire said.

Singapore Shares Close Shy of 5,000 Milestone as Islamabad Peace Talks Boost Sentiment

Singapore shares recorded gains on Friday to end the week in green, as the Asian market reacted positively to a tentative geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East ahead of the highly anticipated talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad.The Straits Times Index (STI), a key benchmark for the Singapore Exchange, ranged between 4,973.10 and 4,999.30 throughout the day. It ended the session at 4,989.41, up 12.33 points or nearly 0.3% compared to Thursday's close.On the corporate front, shares of BH Global (SGX:BQN) were down nearly 7% at the close as it proposed to renew its share buyback mandate.Metis Energy (SGX:L02) closed over 2% higher as it reported three consecutive years of pre-tax losses for its three most recent financial years.Meanwhile, shares of City Developments (SGX:C09) were nearly flat as it established a SG$2 billion multicurrency perpetual bonds issuance program.

Singapore Shares Retreat, Track Regional Losses as Markets Asses Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire

Singapore shares closed lower on Thursday, tracking broader regional losses, with markets assessing the longevity of the US-Iran two-week ceasefire.The Straits Times Index (STI), a key benchmark for the Singapore Exchange, ranged between 4,974.34 and 5,009.89 throughout the day. It ended the session at 4,977.08, down 18.97 points or 0.4% compared to Wednesday's close.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated his resolve to keep its military assets around Iran until a "real agreement" is made ahead of the crunch talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.In company news, shares of InnoTek (SGX:M14) were up nearly 5% at the close, with the company targeting to raise approximately SG$16 million through the placement of up to 24.6 million shares at SG$0.6506 per share.CDW (SGX:BXE) was down over 4% as the precision components provider reported three consecutive years of pre-tax losses for its three most recent financial years.Meanwhile, shares of Parkson Retail Asia (SGX:O9E, HKG:3368) closed nearly 2% higher as it proposed to renew its share purchase mandate at its 2025 annual general meeting.