Asia Week Ahead: Inflation; Manufacturing Activity; and Trade
Asia's macro calendar will be busy in the week ahead, with investors set to track a broad mix of PMI readings, inflation prints, trade data and industrial activity across the region.The week starts with retail sales figures from Japan, alongside producer inflation figures from Singapore and Malaysia.Attention turns Tuesday to China's official PMI data and the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes.Activity indicators will remain in focus Wednesday as S&P Global releases manufacturing PMI reports for major Asian economies, while Thursday will bring inflation data from South Korea and trade balance from Australia.Friday rounds out the week with a heavy Vietnam data slate, alongside services and composite PMI reports from several major economies.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, June 29The week kicked off with the release of Japan's retail sales data for May, as well as producer inflation data from Malaysia and Singapore.Japan's retail sales expanded 5.3% year over year to 13.45 trillion yen during May, beating the consensus forecast of 3.1% growth tracked by Investing.com, and compared with a 2.8% increase recorded in the previous month.Meanwhile, Singapore's Manufactured Products Price Index jumped 30.8% year on year in May 2026, accelerating from the 27.5% annual growth recorded in April.The Domestic Supply Price Index climbed 34.2% from a year earlier, quickening from the 32.1% year-over-year expansion seen the previous month.Singapore also reported import and export prices for the month.Export prices increased 14.7% year over year in May, accelerating from a 13.3% growth in April, while import prices jumped 19.1% year over year, quickening from the 18.9% increase in the previous month.The Producer Price Index for local production in Malaysia rose 7.8% year over year in May, driven by a rise in all sectors, particularly by the mining industry.Elsewhere, consumer confidence in Taiwan rose to 65.05 in June from 62.08 in May, beating the 62.5 consensus forecast tracked by Trading Economics and marking the highest level since February.In contrast, consumer sentiment in the Philippines deteriorated sharply to -42 during the second quarter from -15.8 in the first three months of the year.Later Monday, India reports its monthly industrial and manufacturing production stats.TUESDAY, June 30Tuesday will be among the busiest days of macro releases with China's official manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and general purchasing managers' index (PMI) data taking the lead.Economists at ING expect China's manufacturing activity to edge up 0.1 point to 50.1, while non-manufacturing PMI is expected to slide back into contraction territory at 49.9. Importantly, the data readout will give economists the first look at whether a June rebound could be in the cards, ING said in a preview.In Japan, monthly industrial production and unemployment data would capture headlines. ING expects May's industrial output to slow to 1.4% year on year from the 2% growth recorded in the prior month, with unemployment to remain steady at 2.5%.Macao will also report unemployment data the same day, with Trading Economics expecting a slight tick upwards to 1.9% from 1.8% in April.Industrial production data from Thailand and South Korea will also feature Tuesday, alongside their retail sales stats.Markets will also follow the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes for clues on whether the central bank will raise interest rates. In its most recent meeting, the RBA unanimously decided to leave the cash rate steady at 4.35% but opened the possibility of a rate hike to balance the risk between high inflation and slowing growth.Neighboring New Zealand will see the release of a report capturing business confidence for June.Elsewhere, the Philippines will release monthly trade and producer inflation figures.WEDNESDAY, July 1S&P Global's monthly PMI reports on manufacturing activity will be closely watched Wednesday.The reports will cover activity across India, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia, China, Australia, and the Philippines.Markets will also await the Bank of Japan's sentiment index for the second quarter, with ING expecting the Tankan survey to show an increase amid strong chip demand and an improved situation in the Middle East.A monthly report covering consumer confidence in Japan will also be due.Indonesia's monthly inflation print will also be among the highlights Wednesday. Economists at ING expect June's consumer price index to edge up to 3.2% year on year from 3.1% in the month prior, reflecting the knock-on effect of elevated oil prices and depreciation of the local currency.Still, inflation is likely to remain within Bank Indonesia's target range, ING said.Indonesia will also report its trade balance the same day, with Trading Economists expecting a trade surplus of $4 billion, up from $90 million in April.South Korea will similarly report trade figures for June. ING said it expects strong chip demand to support exports, resulting in a trade surplus of $33 billion, up from $27 billion in May.THURSDAY, July 2South Korea's monthly inflation print will lead headlines Thursday.As with Indonesia, ING said it expects the knock-on effect of elevated oil prices to reflect more visibly in the June printout which could show inflation accelerating to 3.3% year on year from 3.1% in the prior month."The recent decline of global oil prices won't be reflected in domestic gasoline prices for another couple of months, while petrochemicals and related product prices are likely to remain sticky," ING said.Markets will be on the lookout for Australia's trade balance for May. Canberra is expected to report a trade surplus of A$2.2 billion for the month, up from A$1.79 billion in April, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Thailand will release a business confidence report for June, while Hong Kong will release its monthly retail sales stats.The Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management's manufacturing PMI report is also expected Thursday.FRIDAY, July 3Vietnam will feature prominently on Friday with a slew of macro data readouts, including inflation and GDP growth rate.The country's June consumer price index is expected to clock in at 6.5% year on year, accelerating from 5.6% in May, Trading Economics forecasted.Meanwhile, the economy is forecasted to have grown by 7.6% year on year during the second quarter, slowing from the 7.8% increase witnessed during the first three months of the year, according to Trading Economics.Other Vietnamese release include monthly retail sales, industrial production, and balance of trade figures.Singapore will similarly report its retail sales data on Friday, while New Zealand will see the release of a consumer confidence report.On the activity front, S&P Global will release composite and services PMI reports for India, China, Singapore, Japan, and Australia.
