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World Bank Cuts Growth Forecasts for Japan, China as Middle East Conflict Weighs on Asia

The World Bank trimmed its 2026 growth forecasts for Japan and China on Thursday, citing rising energy prices, disrupted trade, and weakening demand stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, the weakest pace since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the organization's June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report.The World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast for Japan to 0.7% from its January estimate of 0.8% as rising energy prices weigh on consumption and exports. In 2025, the economy grew by an estimated 1.1%.GDP growth is expected to recover modestly to 0.9% in 2027 before easing again to 0.8% in 2028 as domestic demand improves on the back of lower inflation and higher wages.Meanwhile, growth in East Asia and the Pacific is projected to moderate to 4.2% in 2026 from 5% in 2025, with China's deceleration driven by subdued domestic demand amid low consumer confidence, the continued property sector adjustment, and a soft labor market, the World Bank said.Growth in China is projected to ease to 4.2% in 2026 from the estimated 5% increase in 2025. The latest forecast is down from the 4.4% estimate the World Bank issued in January.Momentum is expected to accelerate to 4.3% in 2027 before decelerating again in 2028 to 4.2%, "as energy prices ease while diminishing returns to capital, high debt, and demographic pressures continue to lower China's potential growth."Elsewhere, in South Asia, growth is projected to soften to 6.3% in 2026 from 7% in 2025, mainly reflecting the adverse impact of the Middle East conflict, including shortages of energy and agricultural products that put upward pressure on energy and food prices, according to the World Bank.However, the latest forecast for the region was up from 6.2% in January.Growth in India is projected to moderate to 6.6% in fiscal year 2026/27 from 7.7% in 2025, reflecting a slowdown in private demand growth as a result of higher energy prices and other input costs, though a reduction in Goods and Services Tax rates is expected to provide some support for consumer spending.In January, the World Bank estimated India's GDP growth for 2026 at 6.5%."Developing countries have faced a series of challenges over the last decade," said Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group."In response to the current shock, we are providing liquidity where it is needed now - and we are ready with additional financing, guarantees, and private-sector solutions if pressures deepen. Our job is to help countries steady the ship, keep reforms moving, and emerge stronger on the other side."Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $94 a barrel in 2026, 36% above 2025 levels, assuming that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted through July, the World Bank said.The institution warned that if energy supply disruptions prove more severe than currently assumed and are exacerbated by substantial financial stress, global growth could fall to 1.3% in 2026, with inflation forecast to rise to 4.4%.