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The UK benchmark swung on US-Iran peace-framework developments, ending one week up 1.63% but later closing 0.39% lower as a 60-day deal awaited signing.
Construction output in the UK fell 0.8% month over month in May, following a revised 0.1% decline in April, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday.Analysts expected a 0.3% decline for the month.On a yearly basis, construction output was 1.8% lower, compared with the revised 1.6% decrease earlier and the market forecast of a 1.1% contraction.
Britain's services output rose 0.3% month over month in May, following a revised 0.1% drop in April, according to data from the Office for National Statistics published Thursday.On a yearly basis, the index climbed 1.7%, against the revised 1.6% increase earlier.
Britain's goods and services trade deficit rose by 4.4 billion pounds sterling to 9.1 billion pounds in the three months to May, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday.The UK's goods trade deficit increased by 3.1 billion pounds to 60.9 billion pounds, while the services trade surplus declined by 1.3 billion pounds to 51.8 billion pounds.
The UK's monthly manufacturing production was up 0.1% in May, following a revised 0.5% gain in the prior month, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday.Analysts expected a 0.2% dip for the month.On a yearly basis, British manufacturing output rose 2.3%, compared with the 1% growth earlier and the consensus estimate of a 1.9% increase.
The UK's monthly industrial production declined 0.5% in May, after a revised 0.2% uptick in April, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday.Analysts expected a 0.1% drop for the month.On a yearly basis, UK industrial output was up 1%, against the revised zero growth earlier and the consensus estimate of a 1.2% gain.
The UK's gross domestic product expanded 0.1% month over month in May, following a 0.1% dip in April, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday.Analysts expected zero growth during the month.On a yearly basis, the British economy grew 1.3%, against the prior revised 1.1% expansion and the market forecast of a 1.4% growth.
London's FTSE 100 fell 0.17% on Wednesday's close as investors assessed the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's latest report ahead of the monthly gross domestic product data due the next day.The OECD said the UK economic growth is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025 before recovering to 1.1% in 2027, while annual headline inflation is projected to rise to 3.7% this year before easing to 2.4% the following year. The organization said stronger productivity growth, fiscal discipline and structural reforms would be needed to raise living standards.On the corporate front, private equity investor Intermediate Capital Group (ICG.L) was the top gainer on the blue-chip index, rising 4.75% after its fee-earning assets under management stood at $88.18 billion as of June 30, compared with $86.52 billion as of April 1.Housebuilder Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L) gained 4.28% after its adjusted pretax profit for the 52 weeks ended June 28 aligned with market expectations. The company also launched a share buyback program of up to 386 million pounds sterling to reduce its share capital."Barratt Redrow's FY26 trading update is solid, with completions of 17,667 (including JVs) at the upper end of guidance and adjusted PBT in line with consensus of GBP559.5m," RBC Capital Markets said. "The headline, however, is the capital allocation shift: GBP400m to be returned in FY27 primarily through buybacks, replacing the ordinary dividend with a nominal GBP0.01 per share. This directly addresses shareholder pressure for capital returns at a 36% discount to [tangible net asset value], and we expect the shares will perform well today."On the downside, miner Antofagasta (ANTO.L) lost 2.52% after reporting a yearly decline in its interim copper output to 285,000 tonnes from 314,900 tonnes. The company kept its full-year copper production guidance in the range of 650,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes."Antofagasta has had a slow start to the year with volumes at Los Pelambres missing expectations on 7kt copper stuck in inventory due to concentrate pipeline maintenance. Guidance for the year has been maintained for production, Los Pelambres should still be seeing improving grades and throughput, so the required pick-up in run-rate is manageable if it comes through," RBC said in another note.Geopolitical tensions remained in focus after the US launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iranian military sites following the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran responded with attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, while also threatening to disrupt additional regional energy export routes, keeping investors wary of the potential impact on global oil supplies and inflation.
UK economic activity is projected to slow in the near term, driven by the supply shock from the energy price surge caused by the Middle East war and tight fiscal policy, among other factors, according to a Wednesday report.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development expects UK gross domestic product to grow 0.9% in 2026 before picking up to 1.1% in 2027.Meanwhile, annual headline inflation is estimated to hit 3.7% in 2026, owing to renewed global energy inflation, before easing to 2.4% in 2027. Annual core inflation is forecast to reach 3.1% before falling to 2.7% the following year.The OECD expects UK monetary policy "to look through the energy shock in 2026 and continue easing towards a neutral stance in 2027, reducing but not eliminating the drag on growth as fiscal policy will remain restrictive."
London's FTSE 100 rose 0.20% on Tuesday as investors assessed renewed US pressure on Iran alongside corporate earnings updates and fresh UK economic data.The US threatened to reinstitute a naval blockade of Iranian ports and impose a 20% charge on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz."President Trump has a habit of starting with an extreme negotiating position so no doubt this would come down if it was ever implemented, but the very spectre of tolls will make markets and customers nervous. US Central Command said that it will resume the Iran blockade at 4pm [New York] time today, so that still leaves a bit of time for a possible climbdown," said Deutsche Bank Research.Across the blue-chip index, oil giant BP (BP.L) was one of the top performers, rising 1.56% after forecasting stronger second-quarter refining margins and a slight increase in its oil trading result from the first quarter."BP's trading update was better than what we had modeled across most indicators, with strong realisations in the upstream alongside higher refining margin capture than we had modeled. These divisions were supported also by strong oil trading results," RBC Capital Markets said, with an outperform rating on the stock.Meanwhile, AstraZeneca (AZN.L) agreed to license Dizal Pharmaceutical's lung cancer treatment candidate Zegfrovy. Under the agreement, AstraZeneca will pay $600 million upfront, with potential milestone payments of up to $900 million and tiered royalties on global sales. The stock was down 1.78% at closing.On the macro front, UK retail sales rose 1.7% year over year on a like-for-like basis in June, slowing from May's 3.4% increase, according to the British Retail Consortium. The reading missed expectations for a 2.6% gain"June's record-breaking heat, food price inflation easing slightly and the start of the World Cup gave retailers a welcome boost, encouraging more frequent top-up shops. With both the warm weather and football tournament continuing this month, consumer confidence could receive a further uplift. However, looking further ahead, ongoing political uncertainty and the impact of the Middle East conflict starting to filter through to food prices, may weigh on confidence once again," said Institute of Grocery Distribution Chief Executive Officer Sarah Bradbury.
Retail sales in the UK rose 1.7% year over year on a like-for-like basis in June, following a 3.4% jump in May, according to data from the British Retail Consortium published Tuesday.The reading, which missed the expected 2.6% increase for the month, corresponds to the slowest retail sales growth since February.BRC attributed the increase to the heatwave, with a rise in demand for clothing, electric fans, air-conditioning units, food, and drinks, adding that the hot weather was the main sales factor for the second consecutive month. The FIFA World Cup also bolstered sales during the month.
London's FTSE 100 ended little changed at 0.02% in the red on Monday, as investors evaluated the exchange of hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend, with Iran claiming the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz."Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US retaliation this week highlight the upside risk to our inflation forecast," Berenberg said July 10. "Investors' belief that the [Bank of England] will raise interest rates if oil prices rise again is a useful insurance policy that bears down on demand every time the US-Iran conflict flares up. Over time, we expect the incoming data to show that demand is already weak enough to prevent underlying inflation picking up, and the BoE to let its insurance policy of future rate hikes lapse."In corporate news, GSK's (GSK.L) phase 2 Azur-1 trial met its primary objective after Jemperli demonstrated sustained clinical complete responses at 12 months in patients with stage II/III mismatch repair deficient/microsatellite instability-high locally advanced rectal cancer. The positive interim results will be submitted to global regulators to aid Jemperli's review, including an accelerated evaluation in the US for rectal cancer. Shares of the pharmaceutical giant were off 0.41% in closing trade.International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.L) fell 2.25% to rank among the FTSE 100's worst performers as higher Brent crude prices, driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict, fueled concerns over rising jet fuel costs. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank Research raised its price target on the airline group to 6.45 pounds from 5.40 pounds while reiterating its buy rating."On 19th June we raised our 2026 EBIT from ~EUR4.3bn to ~EUR4.8bn, factoring in the benefit of lower forward fuel prices for unhedged requirements in 2H26, while leaving our unit rev assumptions unchanged," analysts said. "Given the insights from our recent fares tracker however, we now lower our full year [passenger revenue per available seat kilometer] assumption from +4% to +2% and our EBIT moves back to ~EUR4.3bn. The volatility caused by the on/off conflict in the Middle East is making it hard to be precise with this year's earnings outcome."On the upside, Computacenter (CCC.L) jumped 2.43% after BofA Global Research initiated its coverage with a buy rating, noting that the technology and services provider is benefiting from the rapid growth in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure investments.Next, traders will receive the UK's monthly gross domestic product report for May on Thursday, before Andy Burnham's widely expected confirmation as Labour Party leader on Friday and as prime minister on July 20.
European stock markets closed mixed in Monday trading with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, Germany's DAX fractionally higher, the UK's FTSE 100 shedding nearly 0.1%, and France's CAC rising 0.3%.Hostilities continued to re-escalate in the Middle East and Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz once again closed, driving up oil prices. The US and Iran traded heavy missile and drone attacks over the weekend, with the US military saying they hit Iranian military facilities, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had struck US installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan.Brent Crude prices were climbing 4.8% to $79.67.In regulatory news, Alphabet's Google, Meta and Snap could face new restrictions in the EU as the European Commission prepares a proposal to limit children's access to social media platforms after the summer, Reuters reported, citing Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. According to the report, Von der Leyen said children need time in the "real world" to develop friendships, make mistakes and shape their identities "before an algorithm shapes them instead."In corporate news, Eni said Monday it agreed to fuel BMW's corporate fleet vehicles in Italy with a diesel biofuel produced from renewable materials like feedstocks. The hydrotreated vegetable oil lowered greenhouse gas emissions by 79.5% in the supply chain compared with standard fossil fuels, the company said. Separately, Eni's Eni Industrial Evolution unit and Seri Industrial's FIB have established Faenix, a commercial platform focused on battery energy storage systems based on lithium iron phosphate technology, Seri Industrial said Monday. Eni shares gained 3.4% in Milan.Deutsche Bank has hired four private bankers from Standard Chartered, including Managing Director Eleftherios Sachanidis, as the German lender builds out its wealth management operations in Dubai, Bloomberg reported. Sachanidis is set to report to Mubashar Ayoob, Deutsche Bank's head of the Gulf, with the group expected to support broader coverage of emerging-market clients, Bloomberg reported, citing an internal memo. Deutsche Bank shares were down 1.1% in Frankfurt.Stellantis said Monday its Q2 estimated consolidated shipments totaled 1.6 million units, up 10% from a year earlier. North America shipments increased 38% to 445,000 units, the company said. Shipments for Enlarged Europe, the company's largest market, increased by 5% to 762,000 units, Stellantis said. Stellantis shares added 2.2% in Paris.GSK said Monday a phase 2 trial of its experimental drug Jemperli met its primary goal in patients with stage 2/3 mismatch repair-deficient or microsatellite instability-high locally advanced rectal cancer. The company said interim results showed a sustained clinical complete response at 12 months, suggesting the immunotherapy could help some patients avoid or delay chemotherapy, radiation and surgery if approved. GSK shares were down 0.3% in London.Mastercard is exploring the sale of a majority stake in its UK payments infrastructure subsidiary Vocalink potentially back to British banks, the Financial Times reported Sunday. According to the report, discussions are at a preliminary stage, with no firm offers made.
European stock markets closed mixed in Friday trading with the Stoxx600 fractionally higher, Germany's DAX decreasing 0.2%, the FTSE 100 adding 0.2%, and France's CAC roughly unchanged.In economic news, France's consumer price index, or CPI, in June rose 1.8% on year, down from the 2.4% on-year increase logged in May, INSEE reported.Separately, Germany's CPI in June gained 2.3% on year, down from 2.6% on year in May, Destatis reported.In corporate news, Apollo Global Management launched a $7.65 billion bid for London-based airline EasyJet on Friday, modestly outbidding rival financial house Castlelake, Reuters and Bloomberg reported. Given that Apollo Global's buyout bid is about 3.6% higher than Castlelake's existing offer, the EasyJet board said it no longer recommended accepting Castlelake's bid, which it had agreed in principle earlier this week. EasyJet shares surged past 14% in London.Separately, Apollo has agreed to invest 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) for a minority stake in a newly established entity holding Bayer's long-acting reversible contraceptives business, the companies said Friday. Under the deal, Bayer will retain a majority stake and full operational control. Bayer shares were down 1.1% in Frankfurt.Vodafone shares jumped past 12% in London after e& Group said it has agreed to to sell its entire stake in Vodafone to Vega, an acquisition vehicle wholly owned by the Niel family group, for $5.95 billion.HSBC is marketing distressed commercial property loans held by its Hong Kong subsidiary Hang Seng Bank as part of its overhaul of the business following its take-private earlier this year, the Financial Times reported. Hang Seng held about $3.5 billion, or more than half, of HSBC's $6.3 billion in stage-three commercial property loans in Hong Kong at the end of 2025, the report said. HSBC shares rose 1% in London.UBS played a key role in fueling withdrawals from Blue Owl's Technology Income fund after it advised clients to pare down their private credit holdings, the Financial Times reported. Investors began pulling large sums of money from the fund in Q4 2025 just after the Swiss banks told clients with large private credit holdings to reduce their positions, the report said. UBS shares added 0.4% in Switzerland.
British equities ended the week higher, with the FTSE 100 rising 0.24% on Friday, as investors digested corporate developments and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Vodafone Group (VOD.L) led gains on the blue-chip index, with its shares climbing 12.67%, after the British telecommunications company reached a $5.95 billion agreement that will see Emirates Telecommunications Group, d/b/a e&, sell its remaining 16.21% stake in Vodafone to the Niel family group's Vega acquisition vehicle.EasyJet (EZJ.L) shares also surged, ending the session up 14.08%, after the British budget airline agreed on the key financial terms of a potential 5.7 billion-pound-sterling takeover offer from Apollo. EasyJet's board backed the proposal and withdrew its support for an indicative offer from Castlelake, saying Apollo's bid delivers a "superior outcome" for shareholders."Whilst the chance of a further improved offer can't be dismissed, we note that Castlelake was already bid up by the easyJet Board from an original proposal at [GBP]5.60/share. Some peers would now screen more attractively than easyJet on P/NAV basis, in our view," commented RBC Capital Markets.In geopolitical news, the US launched new airstrikes against Iran on Thursday. In response, Iran attacked US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.Following US President Donald Trump's pronouncement that the ceasefire with Iran was "over," an unnamed US official said the country remains committed to engaging in "technical talks" with Iran in an attempt to resolve the conflict, MS Now reported, adding that some Republican lawmakers are becoming increasingly concerned about the political impact of a prolonged conflict ahead of the US midterm elections.Investors will look ahead to a series of UK economic indicators next week, including the British Retail Consortium's retail sales monitor on July 14, followed by May gross domestic product, trade, industrial production and manufacturing output data on July 16, for fresh clues on the strength of the economy.
The KOF Swiss Economic Institute's global economic barometers rose in July, moving slightly above the 100-point level, indicating an improvement in the economic momentum worldwide.The coincident global barometer rose 0.6 points to 104.5 points, while the leading barometer increased 0.7 points to 102.5 points, according to a Friday release.The increase in both barometers was largely attributed to positive contributions from the Asia, the Pacific and Africa region and Europe.
The expected oil market surplus in 2027 could be upended by the recent re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict after the interim ceasefire deal was breached, leading to a renewed increase in oil prices, according to the International Energy Agency.In its July oil market report published Friday, the IEA said global oil demand is on the road to recovery, expecting it to increase by more than 8 million barrels per day by October from a low of 97.9 million barrels per day in May. Nonetheless, the agency forecasts demand will decline by 1 million barrels of oil per day in 2026 before rebounding by 2 million barrels per day in the next year.Meanwhile, global supply is projected to drop by an average of 3.7 million barrels of oil per day to 102.6 million barrels per day in 2026, assuming that renewed hostilities between the US and Iran quickly de-escalate. Looking ahead, supply is anticipated to increase by 7.5 million barrels per day next year if transit volumes rise."While the global oil market balance looks set to swing back to surplus towards the end of the year, the forecast hinges on the assumption that tanker flows through the [Strait of Hormuz] will gradually recover, allowing producers to restart fields and refiners in the Middle East and elsewhere to resume product shipments. Renewed exchanges of fire in the Gulf this week highlight the risks of not reaching a lasting peace agreement, which is a must for the normalisation in oil markets," the IEA noted.
London's FTSE 100 closed 0.16% lower on Thursday, driven by a decline in heavyweight AstraZeneca (AZN.L) after its late-stage trial results, while renewed US-Iran hostilities also weighed on sentiment.Shares of AstraZeneca tumbled 7.15%, making the pharmaceutical giant the worst performer on the blue-chip index, after it and Ionis said their Wainua treatment failed to meet the primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial of adults with transthyretin-mediated amyloid cardiomyopathy. The Cardio-TTRansform study did not show a statistically significant benefit over placebo on a composite measure of cardiovascular mortality and recurrent cardiovascular events through 140 weeks."Data comes as a surprise given we and investors hadn't even debated likelihood of a primary endpoint miss, given positive precedent data and successful launch for ALNY's competitor Amvuttra... While AZN notes it will further analyse the full dataset ahead of presentation at ESC-26 in Aug, we think approval is highly unlikely," BofA Global Research said.On the upside, Computacenter (CCC.L) surged 7.01% to lead FTSE 100 gainers after forecasting first-half adjusted pretax profit would double from 81.5 million pounds sterling a year earlier. The IT services company also expects full-year results to come in "comfortably ahead of market expectations."Investors also remained cautious as the US and Iran exchanged attacks for a second straight day, fueling uncertainty over the durability of the ceasefire."Traffic through the strait will almost certainly remain reduced until the security situation becomes clearer and market participants gain more visibility on whether a diplomatic off-ramp remains available," Rystad Energy said. "After the burial ceremony of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - killed by an Israeli strike at the outset of the conflict - ends on 9 July, both sides could adopt an even harder stance, driving a further uptick in geopolitical risk premiums."In the economic corner, the UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors house price balance stood at -33% in June, "broadly unchanged" from the revised -34% in the previous month, according to residential market survey data. The latest reading missed the consensus estimate of -31%."June's survey results offer some cautious encouragement that the worst of the slowdown in market activity may be beginning to pass, with several key indicators moving in a less negative direction for a second consecutive month," RICS Head of Market Research and Analysis Tarrant Parsons said. "Until there is greater clarity over both the political backdrop and the path of interest rates, housing market activity is likely to remain relatively subdued in the near term."
The UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors house price balance stood at -33% in June, "broadly in line" with the revised 34% in the previous month, according to residential market survey data released Thursday.The latest reading missed the consensus estimate of -31%.House price expectations for the next three months grew to -32% from -44%, while the 12-month outlook rose to 8% from 6%, signaling a potential uptick in prices over the coming year.
London's FTSE 100 closed 1.86% lower on Wednesday after overnight US strikes in Iran, with President Donald Trump suggesting the tentative ceasefire between the two countries had effectively ended."Iran has condemned both measures as violations of the agreement and vowed a response, raising concerns that the fragile peace process reached last month could unravel before negotiations on a permanent settlement are completed. While US officials have stressed that talks towards a longer-term accord continue, the latest escalation represents the most serious test yet for the ceasefire," Deutsche Bank Research said.The UK and the Netherlands agreed to a 2.4 billion-pound-sterling maritime defense partnership to jointly develop and build eight amphibious transport ships. The 160-meter vessels, four for each country, are expected to support the longstanding UK-Netherlands Amphibious Force and strengthen NATO's rapid-response capabilities.Britain and Turkey signed a new Security and Defence Partnership at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, aiming to formalize and expand their partnership on defense and security issues, underscoring both countries' commitment to strengthening their longstanding strategic partnership.Separately, the International Monetary Fund raised its UK economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.0% from 0.8% as the energy shock dissipates. The IMF left its 2027 growth forecast unchanged at 1.3%.In corporate news, homebuilder Vistry Group (VTY.L) plunged 6.89% after flagging a loss before tax of 30 million pounds for the first half and announcing Chief Financial Officer Tim Lawlor will step down in October."[We] expect weakness in the shares today as we believe that there are downside risks to estimates as the strategic review continues. We think things could get worse before they get better," RBC Capital Markets said.Student accommodation owner and operator Unite Group (UTG.L) reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of between 0.415 pound and 0.430 pound. "Management needs time to execute on its strategy to realign the portfolio toward higher-tariff universities. We believe that it could take two full sales cycles to fully understand the cyclical and/or structural dynamics that are currently affecting the UK student accommodation market," Berenberg said. The stock was down 2.98%.
The International Monetary Fund raised its UK economic growth estimate for 2026 as the energy shock due to the Middle East war fades.In its World Economic Outlook update published Wednesday, the IMF expects the UK economy to grow 1% in 2026, up from the April estimate of 0.8%. For 2027, the growth estimate was retained at 1.3%.Meanwhile, the country's core inflation rate is projected to return to target by mid-2027.
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