FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Weekly RIN Prices Drop Sharply on Expectations of Higher Small Refinery Exemptions

By

Renewable Identification Number markets dropped sharply in the Aug. 20-Aug. 27 window, according to the EcoEngineers' Carbon Market Snapshot.

In the current year, D4 2026, biomass-based diesel RIN prices traded at $1.95 per RIN on Thursday, down from $2.30/RIN a week ago.

D5 2026 advanced biofuel RINs were trading around $1.94/RIN, below $2.33/RIN last week.

D6 2026 corn-based ethanol RIN prices finished trading on Thursday at $1.83/RIN, down from $2.27/RIN a week ago.

Matt Gammans, assistant professor of agricultural policy at North Dakota State University, toldthat the price drop reflects a change in expectations.

He said the market now thinks the Environmental Protection Agency may grant substantially more 2025 small refinery exemptions than previously expected.

Gammans said that two things shifted that expectation this week. First, the EPA's decision to push back the Sep. 1 compliance deadline for 2025 obligations removed the forced buying that would otherwise have happened in the last week of August and was read as a signal of broader relief.

Second, reporting citing non-public briefings indicated that exemptions could reach 1.8 billion RINs, compared with a market assumption closer to 1.3 billion.

He explained that an exemption erases a refiner's obligation, so the RINs that would have been retired remain on the market.

"This means more RINs available for obligated refiners, which lowers prices. Because obligated refineries are affected by all components of the mandate (D4, D5, D6), an exemption reduces demand for all categories," Gammans said.

Related Articles

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Move Up on Hotter September Forecasts

US natural gas prices backed off earlier highs in after-hours trading Thursday but stayed in positive territory as forecasts for hotter weather pointed to potentially stronger demand from power generators to fuel increased air-conditioning use and a smaller-than-expected inventory build.The front-month October Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract rose by 1.08% to $2.905 per million British thermal units.The September 2026 NYMEX contract expired Thursday afternoon at $2.907/MMBtu, its highest daily settlement since moving to the front of the curve last month, the Energy Buyers' Guide said. The settlement marked the highest September expiration since 2022 and the first contract since March to expire at a higher price than the corresponding 2025 contract, it said.The October and continuous contracts were supported by forecasts for record-high temperatures across the Southwest through the weekend and by Commodity Weather Group forecasts calling for above-average temperatures across nearly the entire US from Sept. 1-10, Barchart said.Criterion also said the Lower 48 weather outlook had shifted warmer, with temperatures rising 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit over the forecast period. The largest upward revisions were concentrated in the 11-15-day period, particularly across the Midwest, adding to expectations for stronger late-summer cooling demand, Aegis Hedging said.Traders were also monitoring Tropical Storm Dolly, which was off the coast of northern South America and expected to reach the vicinity of Puerto Rico on Sunday.Lower-48 state gas demand was 80.1 Bcf/d on Thursday, up 11.5% from a year earlier, Barchart said, citing BNEF data. US gas-fired power demand, however, remains below 2024 levels so far this year as renewables gain market share, the Energy Information Administration said. Gas accounted for 38.4% of total power generation in the first half of 2026, down from 38.5% in the first half of 2025 and 41.3% in the first half of 2024.On the supply side, US Lower-48 dry gas production remained strong at 112.6 Bcf/d Thursday, up 3.8% year over year, according to Barchart.Prices also drew support from a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build. US natural gas inventories rose by 15 Bcf in the week ended Aug. 21, versus expectations as high as 27 Bcf and well below the five-year average build of 33 Bcf for the week.EIA projected US natural gas inventories would reach 3,985 Bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average. Inventories are currently 6.7% above their five-year seasonal average, underscoring supply strength.Estimated LNG feedgas flows were 19.5 Bcf/d Thursday, up 11.6% from a week earlier, according to BNEF. Freeport LNG accounted for much of the increase in feedgas demand as maintenance work appeared to be winding down. The facility nominated 2.1 Bcf/d Thursday morning, lifting total Lower-48 feedgas demand to 19.4 Bcf/d, Aegis said.LNG production declined last week as lower output at the Corpus Christi export terminal more than offset gains at several other facilities, UBS strategists said Wednesday. Weekly production at Corpus Christi fell to 2,720 MMcf/d from 3,355 MMcf/d a week earlier and 3,147 MMcf/d a month earlier. UBS said.Total LNG production for the week averaged 15,740 million cubic feet per day during the week, down from 16,142 MMcf/d a week earlier but slightly above the 15,693 MMcf/d recorded a month earlier, UBS analysts said.

Commodities

US Power Update: Power Markets Mostly Higher as Natural Gas Leads Generation Mix

US wholesale electricity markets were mostly higher Thursday afternoon, with natural gas leading the generation mix across six of the eight markets, according to data from GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas' real-time locational marginal price stood at $23.20 per megawatt-hour at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 51.61 gigawatts, with natural gas making up the largest share of the generation mix at 41.8%.California Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came to $108.83/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at 22.8 GW, with natural gas representing the largest share of the generation mix at 46.5%. Prices climbed to an intraday high of $123.89/MWh at 3:55 p.m. ET.Southwest Power Pool's real-time LMP was $39.30/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 47.43 GW, while natural gas held the largest portion of the generation mix at 47.7%. Prices reached an intraday high of $238.03/MWh at 10:20 a.m. ET.PJM Interconnection's real-time LMP stood at $43.86/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load came to 118.43 GW, with natural gas providing the largest share of the generation mix at 46%. Prices rose to an intraday high of $258.55/MWh at 4:40 p.m. ET.Midcontinent ISO's real-time LMP was $35.63/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 84.2 GW, with natural gas accounting for the largest portion of the generation mix at 33.5%. Prices hit an intraday high of $133.19/MWh at 7:15 a.m. ET.New York ISO's real-time LMP came to $42.10/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at 20.07 GW, with dual-fuel sources accounting for the largest share of the generation mix at 28.9%.ISO New England's real-time LMP was $68.08/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 15.55 GW, with natural gas supplying the largest share of the generation mix at 56.8%.Independent Electricity System Operator's real-time LMP stood at $49.61/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 19.04 GW at 3:55 p.m. ET, with nuclear accounting for the largest share of the generation mix at 38.2%. Prices rose to an intraday high of $121.44/MWh at 8:50 a.m. ET.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern US from Sep. 4 to Sep. 10, with below-normal to near-normal readings across much of the West.

Commodities

Thailand LNG Demand Forecast Raised as Stronger Power Use Tightens Gas Balance, Kpler Says

Thailand's stronger power demand is tightening its gas balance and lifting LNG needs, with Kpler raising its 2026 and 2027 demand forecasts, it said in a note on Thursday.Thailand's total gas demand rose 0.54 billion cubic meters over the year, to 4.35 Bcm in June, according to Energy Policy and Planning Office data cited by Kpler.Gas use for power generation increased 0.46 Bcm over the year to 2.79 Bcm, accounting for about 85% of the overall annual increase in gas demand.Cooling demand reached 358 degree-days in June, about 10 degree-days above the five-year seasonal average, while electricity generation increased 1.3 terawatt-hours over the year.Coal-fired generation fell 1.0 TWh over the year to 2.1 TWh, while electricity imports declined 0.5 TWh to 3.1 TWh, according to Kpler.Gas-fired generation rose by 2.5 TWh over the year to 12.8 TWh, as lower coal output and higher electricity imports increased Thailand's reliance on gas-fired power.Domestic gas production increased only 0.14 Bcm over the year to 2.64 Bcm, while pipeline imports from Myanmar fell 0.04 Bcm to 0.35 Bcm, Kpler said.The combined 0.10 Bcm supply increase covered less than one-fifth of the 0.54 Bcm rise in demand, leaving LNG to meet most of the shortfall.Thailand's implied LNG balancing requirement therefore increased by about 0.44 Bcm over the year in June, Kpler said.Kpler expects Thailand's gas supply to remain broadly stable through 2027, with limited domestic production growth leaving incremental power-sector demand more dependent on LNG.The firm raised its 2026 Thailand LNG demand forecast by about 0.2 million tons to 11.9 million tons, with most of the increase concentrated in August and September.The 2026 forecast increase equals about one additional standard LNG cargo in each of August and September, while smaller Q4 revisions add roughly one cargo across the quarter.Kpler said stronger late-third-quarter demand should increase Thailand's need for prompt LNG cargoes and provide some support to Asian spot LNG prices, although smaller revisions limit the upside.Kpler also raised its 2027 Thailand LNG demand forecast by 0.1 million tons to 13.5 million tons, as stable domestic output and limited pipeline flexibility keep LNG as the key balancing source.