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Thailand LNG Demand Forecast Raised as Stronger Power Use Tightens Gas Balance, Kpler Says

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Thailand's stronger power demand is tightening its gas balance and lifting LNG needs, with Kpler raising its 2026 and 2027 demand forecasts, it said in a note on Thursday.

Thailand's total gas demand rose 0.54 billion cubic meters over the year, to 4.35 Bcm in June, according to Energy Policy and Planning Office data cited by Kpler.

Gas use for power generation increased 0.46 Bcm over the year to 2.79 Bcm, accounting for about 85% of the overall annual increase in gas demand.

Cooling demand reached 358 degree-days in June, about 10 degree-days above the five-year seasonal average, while electricity generation increased 1.3 terawatt-hours over the year.

Coal-fired generation fell 1.0 TWh over the year to 2.1 TWh, while electricity imports declined 0.5 TWh to 3.1 TWh, according to Kpler.

Gas-fired generation rose by 2.5 TWh over the year to 12.8 TWh, as lower coal output and higher electricity imports increased Thailand's reliance on gas-fired power.

Domestic gas production increased only 0.14 Bcm over the year to 2.64 Bcm, while pipeline imports from Myanmar fell 0.04 Bcm to 0.35 Bcm, Kpler said.

The combined 0.10 Bcm supply increase covered less than one-fifth of the 0.54 Bcm rise in demand, leaving LNG to meet most of the shortfall.

Thailand's implied LNG balancing requirement therefore increased by about 0.44 Bcm over the year in June, Kpler said.

Kpler expects Thailand's gas supply to remain broadly stable through 2027, with limited domestic production growth leaving incremental power-sector demand more dependent on LNG.

The firm raised its 2026 Thailand LNG demand forecast by about 0.2 million tons to 11.9 million tons, with most of the increase concentrated in August and September.

The 2026 forecast increase equals about one additional standard LNG cargo in each of August and September, while smaller Q4 revisions add roughly one cargo across the quarter.

Kpler said stronger late-third-quarter demand should increase Thailand's need for prompt LNG cargoes and provide some support to Asian spot LNG prices, although smaller revisions limit the upside.

Kpler also raised its 2027 Thailand LNG demand forecast by 0.1 million tons to 13.5 million tons, as stable domestic output and limited pipeline flexibility keep LNG as the key balancing source.

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