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Wayfair Category Trends Remain Stable, but Weakening Consumer Backdrop Prompts Caution on H2 Prospects, RBC Says

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Wayfair's (W) overall category trends appear to have remained stable quarter-to-date, but signs of a weakening consumer backdrop could result in some caution on second-half prospects, RBC Capital Markets said Wednesday.

The company is scheduled to report Q2 results on Aug. 4.

RBC raised its Q2 net sales growth estimate to 6.0% from 3.7%, versus Street consensus of 5.4% and guidance of mid-single-digit growth.

Given the category momentum, the brokerage raised its Q3 net sales growth estimate to 4.5% from 3.9%, while maintaining its Q4 net sales estimate at 3.9%, compared with a consensus estimate of 5.1%, as recent data suggests increasing consumer stress, according to the note.

Management guided for a gross margin of 29.5% to 30.5% as the rewards program continues to ramp, according to the note. However, the brokerage believes Q2 gross margin will likely come in below 30%, as it considers that level optimal for maximizing EBITDA, the note added.

RBC kept a sector perform rating on Wayfair and raised its price target to $78 from $76.

Shares of Wayfair were down more than 5% in Wednesday trading.

Price: $88.79, Change: $-5.75, Percent Change: -6.08%

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