Vail Resorts' (MTN) Epic Pass sales appear to have decelerated into September, raising concerns over demand trends and the company's ability to meet fiscal 2027 consensus expectations, UBS Securities said in a Friday note.
The investment firm said its checks and Epic sales transaction data indicate a low- to mid-single digit pass sales decline season-to-date compared with trends as of the end of May. Pass sales are considered a "key driver of forward visibility" for Vail Resorts.
With the projected deceleration in pass sales, the company would need a significant increase in lift business to meet fiscal 2027 consensus. The investment firm estimates that lift sales would have to grow more than mid teens to raise overall sales to a "flattish" level.
Mix shift could buoy overall sales, with higher lift business versus a slight fall in pass sales, according to the note.
UBS has a neutral rating on Vail Resorts, with a $139 price target.
Shares of Vail Resorts were up 1.6% in Friday afternoon trading.
Price: $139.95, Change: $+2.19, Percent Change: +1.59%